EP 148: Simulation Is Not Estimation - rethinking uncertainty in mining
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Release Date: 02/18/2026
EP 179 | Tungsten – Part 1: Understanding the Price Surge and Global Supply Chain
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
In this episode of Snowden Optiro's Fresh Thinking podcast, Julian Aldridge, Regional Director – EMEAA, is joined by Melanie Bulley, Senior Consultant, and Laurie Hassall, Principal Consultant, for the first discussion in a two-part series on tungsten. The discussion examines tungsten from a market and supply chain perspective, with particular attention to the recent rise in APT prices and the factors affecting the availability of tungsten products. Topics discussed include: Ammonium paratungstate (APT), its role as an intermediate tungsten product and its use as a market price reference....
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EP 178 | Inferred Resources in Mine Planning: Practice vs Reporting
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Inferred Mineral Resources are the lowest-confidence Mineral Resource category, but what role should they play in mine planning? In this episode of Fresh Thinking, Tarrant Elkington is joined by Allan Earl, Executive Consultant at Snowden Optiro, to discuss the practical and regulatory considerations around including Inferred Resources in mine plans. Tarrant and Allan explore the distinction between mine plans developed for operational and strategic purposes and those used for public reporting. They discuss how Inferred Resources are treated under different reporting frameworks, including...
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EP 177 | Rethinking Grade Control: When Ordinary Kriging Isn’t Enough
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
When does ordinary kriging stop being the best approach for grade control? In this episode of Fresh Thinking, Ian Glacken, Executive Consultant, and Dr Gregory Zhang, Senior Consultant at , explore direct SMU estimation and the circumstances where conventional ordinary kriging may not provide the best result. They discuss the challenges presented by highly skewed grade distributions, mixed populations and complex anisotropy, and consider alternative approaches including categorical indicator kriging (CIK), multiple indicator kriging (MIK) and localised MIK. Drawing on a case study, Ian...
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EP 176 | Evolving Air Quality Regulations: A Catalyst for Electric Machine Adoption
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Changing workplace exposure limits could become an important driver of battery electric vehicle adoption in underground mining. In this episode of Fresh Thinking by , Hamish Guthrie is joined by Sarah de Vries to discuss Sarah’s recent presentation at The Electric Mine Conference 2026, “Evolving Air Quality Regulations: A Catalyst for Electric Machine Adoption.” Sarah explores the changing regulatory environment for diesel particulate matter (DPM) and other airborne contaminants, and what tighter exposure limits could mean for underground mine ventilation, operating costs,...
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EP 174 | Platinum: Is It Worth Its Weight in Gold?
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Platinum is one of the world’s rarest and most geographically concentrated metals, with applications spanning the automotive, industrial, jewellery and emerging hydrogen sectors. But what does its evolving supply and demand outlook mean for the mining industry? In this episode of Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro, Senzeni Mandava Matondi and Julian Aldridge explore platinum’s geology, market dynamics and strategic importance. They discuss the concentration of global platinum supply, changing automotive demand, the potential role of hydrogen technology, substitution between platinum group...
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EP 173 | The Theory of Sampling: Why Every Mining Decision Begins with a Representative Sample
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Was the sample representative? Every geological model, resource estimate, grade control decision and reconciliation result ultimately depends on the quality of the samples behind it. In this episode of Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro, Melanie Bulley is joined by Senzeni Mandava Matondi to explore the Theory of Sampling and why representative sampling is fundamental to reliable decision-making throughout the mining value chain. They discuss why natural heterogeneity makes sampling challenging, the difference between correct and incorrect sampling errors, why precision should not be confused...
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EP 172 | Tailings Are Not Just Relocated Ore: The Nuances of Tailings Mineral Resource Estimates
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
Tailings Mineral Resource Estimates can appear straightforward. The material has already been mined, crushed, processed and deposited in one location — but tailings facilities present their own unique set of technical challenges. In this episode of Fresh Thinking by , Senzeni Mandava and Melanie Bulley explore the nuances of estimating Mineral Resources within tailings facilities. They discuss how tailings differ from conventional in situ deposits and why depositional engineering, rather than natural geological controls, can become fundamental to understanding continuity. opics covered...
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EP 171 | Part 2 of 2: Managing Uncertainty - How Better Grade Control Leads to Better Decisions
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
In Part 2 of our Fresh Thinking by two-part series, host Melanie Bully is joined by Senzeni Matondi to continue the discussion on why the most expensive mistake in grade control isn’t necessarily mining low-grade material — it’s making the wrong decision about whether material is ore or waste. Following on from Part 1, this episode explores how mining operations can make better grade control decisions by understanding and managing uncertainty. Melanie and Senzeni discuss why average grade alone doesn’t tell the full story, how conditional bias and grade smoothing can affect ore and...
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EP 175 | Why Resource & Reserve Reconciliation Matters
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
In this episode of Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro, Rayleen Hargreaves, Principal Consultant at Datamine and Product Owner of Reconcilor, talks with Ian Glacken, Executive Consultant at Snowden Optiro, about the importance of reconciling mineral resources and reserves across the mine value chain. Resource and reserve reconciliation is often given less attention than the production stages of the mining process, yet it provides an important link between what a company reports, what it plans to mine, and what is ultimately produced. Rayleen and Ian discuss: The role of resources and...
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EP 170 | Part 1 of 2: Why the Most Expensive Mistake in Grade Control Isn't Low Grade
Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro
What if the most expensive mistake in grade control isn’t mining low-grade material — but making the wrong decision about what is ore and what is waste? In this two-part episode of Fresh Thinking by Snowden Optiro, Senzeni Matondi, Principal Consultant, joins Melanie Bully, Senior Consultant, to explore why grade control is fundamentally a decision-making discipline, not simply a grade estimation exercise. In Part 1, Senzeni and Melanie unpack the operational and financial consequences of misclassification, including: Ore loss — when valuable material is classified as waste and...
info_outlineIn this episode of Fresh Thinking, Ian Glacken (Executive Consultant) and Dr Gregory Zhang (Senior Consultant) discuss one of the most important topics in modern resource modelling: uncertainty.
From the long-standing debate of simulation vs estimation, to the growing focus on geological uncertainty and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation, this episode explores where the mining industry stands — and where it still needs to improve.
⏱ Key Topics
00:00 – Introduction: Simulation in mining and why uncertainty matters
01:18 – Simulation vs estimation: what’s the real difference?
02:16 – The “space of uncertainty”: grade, geology, parameters and planning
03:34 – Are we misleading stakeholders by ignoring uncertainty?
05:34 – Has grade uncertainty been solved? Two-point vs multipoint simulation
06:39 – Data uncertainty: blast holes, nugget effect and sampling quality
07:30 – Parameter uncertainty and spatial bootstrapping
09:43 – Geological uncertainty: why it’s fundamentally different
10:44 – Plurigaussian and hierarchical truncated plurigaussian simulation (HTPGS)
12:51 – Industry adoption and emerging trends
13:08 – The “holy grail” of a comprehensive uncertainty model
14:47 – Digital twins and the future of integrated uncertainty modelling
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If you would like to contact Ian Glacken and Dr Gregory Zhang: [email protected]
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Snowden Optiro:
Snowden Optiro is a resources consulting and advisory group that provides independent advice, consulting and training to mining and exploration companies, their advisors and investors. We help mine developers to advance their projects, mining companies to improve their operations and their professionals, and investors to de-risk their investments by the provision of quality advice, training and software in the field of Mineral Resources and Mineral/Ore Reserves.
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#Mining #ResourceModelling #Geostatistics #Simulation #Geology #MiningEngineering