Defending the Pacific: George Friedman on Australia, Japan and the coalition against China
Release Date: 11/07/2025
Talking Geopolitics
Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments. And for more analysis of the region, go to to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW...
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The Australian defense minister said this week that China’s military defense build up required a response. China’s defense spending has increased 13 fold in the past 30 years, while its Navy is projected to grow by nearly 50% by the end of the decade. That last statistic would be of particular concern to Australia’s defense minister, Richard Marles, who said that open sea lanes, including around China, are crucial to Australia’s national security. So how is great power competition playing out in the Asia-Pacific? What is the role of Australia, AUKUS and the Quad, and can America’s...
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The United States, China and Russia are the three main powers of the current era that are vying for dominance on the global stage, all with their own sets of imperatives and challenges. In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman examined the three nations and the main issues they currently face: culture wars and political division in the US, a declining economy in China, and a frozen war in Russia. Visit for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.
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“Twelve out of ten.” That’s how President Trump described this week's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping—a bold rating for one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters in years. But what really came out of it? Was this the start of a new trade understanding or just another pause in a brewing confrontation between two global powers? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman, speaking from The Citadel in South Carolina, where he’s a keynote speaker at an open-source intelligence conference. They unpack the...
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In recent weeks, tensions between the US and Venezuela have been growing. Several US military strikes have targeted boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying illicit drugs, and US President Donald Trump has said that he has authorized the CIA to use lethal force in Venezuela. And the issue doesn't end there, now there is wider involvement from Europe and elsewhere. GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith on this episode of Talking Geopolitics to dive into what's really going on, how it ties into the Monroe Doctrine - the policy relating to affairs in the Western Hemisphere -...
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As GPF Chairman George Friedman has written about in recent months, the United States is trying to reduce its exposure in foreign conflicts. With the US now entering its third week of a government shutdown, the nation has its own set of crises to work through, while Trump is also working to broker peace in Gaza and a trade agreement with China. How does the current situation fit within the framework of institutional and socioeconomic cycles, as described in George's most recent book, The Storm Before the Calm? And where does President Trump fit into it all? Host Christian Smith is back on the...
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Two years ago this week, Hamas' October 7 attacks stunned Israel and the world. And now for the first time there is palpable excitement that the war in Gaza may be on the path to an end. The first part of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan seems to have been agreed by Israel and Hamas, though the plan still faces many hurdles. Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder George Friedman has joined host Christian Smith on this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics to discuss how we got here, whether the plan will work and also why the Gulf states are so important to the plan's success. This interview...
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In his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, GPF Chairman George Friedman forecasted that Turkey would become the major power in the Middle East. As Trump draws down on US involvement abroad, Putin gets bogged down in Russia, and Israel is distracted in Gaza, Turkey is spying opportunities. While Turkey's dominance has been on the rise despite its own internal instability, Saudi Arabia on the other side of the region has been giving it a run for its money. In this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari to discuss all this as well as the...
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Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years. Visit for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s...
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GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari recently wrote that massive geopolitical change has come to the Middle East in the form of the attack on Gaza, a weakening of Iran, paralyzing of Hezbollah, the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria and much more. Considering all these developments and the way in which Israel's actions are driving events in the region, Dr. Bokhari was back on the Club's Podcast+ with host Christian Smith to discuss Israel's wider strategy and what he predicts for the future. Recorded Thursday, September 11, 2025. This clip is part of a full-length episode available to our...
info_outlineThe Australian defense minister said this week that China’s military defense build up required a response. China’s defense spending has increased 13 fold in the past 30 years, while its Navy is projected to grow by nearly 50% by the end of the decade. That last statistic would be of particular concern to Australia’s defense minister, Richard Marles, who said that open sea lanes, including around China, are crucial to Australia’s national security.
So how is great power competition playing out in the Asia-Pacific? What is the role of Australia, AUKUS and the Quad, and can America’s allies trust the US and its nuclear umbrella to be there as it seeks to disengage from the world. Host Christian Smith is with GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss this and much more.
Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.