Beyond the Hype: The Reality of Precision-Strike Weapons in Ukraine
Horns of a Dilemma
Cameron Tracy joins to discuss his . He explains how forecasting about warfare often overweights extreme scenarios and is reinforced by professional and organizational incentives, producing hype with little accountability. We discuss drones, Russia’s failure to gain air superiority, and four case studies: hypersonic-associated missiles (Kinzhal, Tsirkon) intercepted by Patriot systems, the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile’s quick normalization after alarmist reactions, and Russia’s effective UMPK glide bomb kits. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan...
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Psychological Biases in the Era of Nuclear Weapons and AI
Horns of a Dilemma
Political psychologist Rose McDermott discusses on how systematic judgment biases can undermine nuclear deterrence and strategic stability, especially under emerging technologies like AI. McDermott explains Kahneman’s Type 1 (fast, intuitive) versus Type 2 (slow, analytical) thinking and how four biases—overconfidence, the planning fallacy, the illusion of validity, and the prominence effect—can distort leaders’ crisis decisions, probability judgments, and security trade-offs. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
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Understanding Schelling's Nuclear Paradigms with Francis J. Gavin
Horns of a Dilemma
Francis J. Gavin, chair of the TNSR editorial board, joins us to discuss his article, Gavin explains why Thomas Schelling remains foundational to nuclear strategy despite being an economist, and argues that “strategic stability” is often invoked without clear definition. He highlights tensions between mutual vulnerability and US extended deterrence and nonproliferation goals, and describes contradictions between Schelling’s writings on arms control and coercion. Gavin critiques simplified historical lessons about surprise attack and inadvertent war shaping stability theory, traces how...
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Strategic Stability in a Rapidly Changing World
Horns of a Dilemma
Harold Trinkunas, the Deputy Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and a senior research scholar at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University, recently helped assemble our special issue on emerging technologies and strategic stability. In this episode, he previews the issue by explaining how Cold War deterrence assumptions rooted in a bilateral US–Soviet relationship no longer hold amid more nuclear-armed actors, wider access to AI, cyber, hypersonics, and the possibility that these tools can threaten second-strike forces or...
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A Dystopian Take on Rising Authoritarianism and Resistance
Horns of a Dilemma
Melissa Chan joins to discuss her career reporting across Asia and why she pivoted from journalism to co-creating the graphic novel with activist-artist Badiucao. We discuss the book’s visual style (Chinese watercolor influences, Frank Miller’s Sin City palette, and manga elements), the subversive Mao-derived title, and a near-future plot spanning Hong Kong to a 2035 war over Taiwan amid surveillance, drones, and AI. Chan describes choices around depicting resistance, representation, and hidden “Easter eggs,” and reflects on the book’s strong reception. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut...
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Navigating a World Adrift with Shivshankar Menon
Horns of a Dilemma
We host Shivshankar Menon to discuss his recent article, Menon, the former national security advisor to the Indian prime minister, examines the historical rarity of stable world orders and the dangers of contemporary nostalgia for a perceived "golden age" of stability. The conversation explores the tension between a globalized economy and fragmented local politics, questioning whether the current distribution of power can support a formal international order. Menon characterizes the present era as a "world adrift" and argues that progress often emerges from such periods of political disorder....
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The Principle of Distinction in the Autonomous Age
Horns of a Dilemma
Nathan Wood, author of speaks on the principle of distinction in an age of autonomous warfare. He argues that while some concerns about these technologies are valid, we must move beyond general debates to address the specific legal and operational realities of concrete systems. Our conversation explores how the US military can utilize these advancements while maintaining a fundamental, felt sense of human responsibility. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
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Ensuring US Military Readiness in the Indo-Pacific
Horns of a Dilemma
Eyck Freymann and Harry Halem, co-authors of join us to cover a range of topics, including US–China military balance, defense procurement, and the critical need for aligned industrial capacity, technological R&D, and military doctrine. Through historical models, potential reforms, and the importance of logistics and innovation, this episode offers a comprehensive look at how the US can strategically deter China into the 2030s. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
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US Military Primacy and Alliance Resilience
Horns of a Dilemma
We speak with Bence Nemeth from King's College London about his article, The discussion covers the historical context, theoretical framework, and potential scenarios that could unfold if US military primacy were to decline. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning
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Conventional Options Theory in the New Nuclear Era
Horns of a Dilemma
Tyler Bowen from the US Naval War College joins us to discuss his recent TNSR article We discuss the renewed interest in nuclear deterrence given recent global security developments such as Russia's war in Ukraine and China's nuclear expansion. The conversation also explores the challenges and frameworks, particularly Bowen's "conventional options theory," key historical case studies involving nuclear crises, and their lessons for modern policymakers.
info_outlineLauren Sukin (University of Oxford) and Nicola Leveringhaus (King's College London) join us to discuss the evolving global landscape of nuclear security. Together, we examine the roundtable essays featured in TNSR Volume 8, Issue 4, focusing on shifts in nuclear politics catalyzed by China's rise, changing domestic politics, and increased multipolar competition. The discussion delves into the interconnectedness of global nuclear dynamics, the importance of domestic political drivers, and the implications for US and European security strategies.
Roundtable: https://tnsr.org/roundtable/navigating-the-new-nuclear-map/