How Media Distorts Property Data And Misguides Investors
Hotspotting
Most coverage of the Australian property market focuses on headlines, not reality. In this episode, we unpack why mainstream media reporting can significantly distort how buyers, sellers, and investors perceive market conditions. We examine recent housing data from leading sources including Domain, Cotality, and PropTrack, revealing a more nuanced picture of Australia’s real estate performance. While media narratives often emphasise short-term weakness, the broader data shows widespread growth across capital city and regional markets, particularly in house and unit price trends over recent...
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Australia’s Rental Shortage Has Reached Breaking Point
Hotspotting
Australia’s rental crisis is deepening, but the real story goes far beyond rising rents and low vacancy rates. In this episode, we unpack the structural forces driving Australia’s worsening rental shortage — from policy decisions at state and federal level, to rising costs of property ownership, and the unintended consequences shaping investor behaviour and housing supply. With vacancy rates at critically low levels across most capital cities, and affordability deteriorating for tenants nationwide, the data reveals a market under sustained and growing pressure. We explore why...
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Australia’s Best Performing Property Markets Revealed By The Pulse
Hotspotting
What if the strongest property investment opportunities could be identified before the market surge? In this episode, we unpack the standout results from The Pulse and reveal how Hotspotting’s market analysis identified 50 Australian locations that went on to deliver exceptional performance over the past two years. With every market recording positive capital growth, average gains of 41%, and top performers climbing as high as 78%, this episode explores the data, trends and market fundamentals driving these remarkable outcomes. We examine the suburbs that delivered the biggest...
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Australia’s Rental Crisis Explained | Supply, Policy & What Happens Next
Hotspotting
With vacancy rates at record lows and rents consuming more household income than ever… is Australia’s rental crisis getting worse? In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham is joined by Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting, to unpack the real drivers behind Australia’s housing shortage — and why the situation continues to deteriorate. With national vacancy rates sitting around 1%, well below the ~3% level considered a balanced market, and more than 3,400 people arriving in Australia every day, the pressure on rental supply is intensifying — and there are no quick fixes...
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The Safe Haven Strategy Australians Trust When Markets Turn
Hotspotting
When global markets turn volatile, where does capital seek safety? In this episode, we explore why Australian property continues to demonstrate resilience amid economic uncertainty, share market swings, and geopolitical disruption. Drawing on historical cycles including the dotcom crash, the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID, we examine a consistent theme: while equities react sharply to global events, Australian real estate remains underpinned by structural demand, limited supply, and long term fundamentals. We unpack the key drivers shaping the market today, including population...
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The Myths Driving Australia’s Property Narrative And What The Data Shows
Hotspotting
Australia’s housing crisis continues to dominate headlines, political debate and public discourse, yet meaningful progress remains elusive. In this episode, we take a clear, evidence-based look at why decades of inquiries, policy interventions and commentary have failed to materially improve housing affordability, supply and rental conditions across the country. We unpack the structural drivers behind the shortage of dwellings, the persistent rise in construction costs and build times, and the disconnect between policy narratives and market realities. The discussion also challenges widely...
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Why The RBA Rise Is Kindergarten Economics and Grossly Unfair
Hotspotting
Are interest rate hikes really fixing inflation—or just shifting the pain? In this episode, we take a hard look at the latest move by the Reserve Bank of Australia and unpack why raising rates may be a blunt, outdated response to a complex economic problem. With the cash rate climbing to 4.10% under Governor Michele Bullock, we examine who actually bears the cost—and why mortgage holders continue to carry the heaviest load. Drawing on economic data and policy insights, we explore the real drivers of inflation in Australia, from energy prices and housing supply to government spending...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
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How The Price Predictor Index Spots Australia’s Next Property Boom
Hotspotting
Want to know which Australian suburbs and regional markets are set to surge next? In this episode, we dive into the Price Predictor Index, Hotspotting’s proven tool for identifying growth areas before the rest of the market catches on. Hear how rising sales volumes act as early signals of property price growth and discover the methodology that has consistently predicted booms from Adelaide to Darwin. We break down the patterns, the trends, and the insights every property investor and market watcher needs to stay ahead. If you’re serious about property investment or spotting the next growth...
info_outlineANZ, the worst forecaster on property price outcomes in the nation, has just published its forecasts for what will happen with house prices in 2024.
Yes, that’s right. They’ve published, in October, forecasts for house prices this year, a couple of months before the end of the year.
Why have they done this? Because it’s the only chance ANZ has of getting it right with its property price forecasts.
Essentially what it has done with these “predictions” is take the existing situation and extrapolate it two months into the future.
So, you will be amazed to learn that they’re predicting that Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane will lead on price growth in 2024.
You’d pay good money for insights as sharp as that, right?!
The big four banks, collectively, have terrible track records in forecasting property price outcomes.
They are ALWAYS – and I do mean ALWAYS – wrong, but usually they are spectacularly wrong.
But ANZ bank is the worst of them.
At the start of 2024, it predicted house prices would fall across the nation in 2024 – by as much as 15%.
They did the same at the start of 2023 – forecasting massive decline in house prices.
Of course, it’s now clear that they got this horribly, horribly wrong – because they just don’t understand real estate dynamics.
Their reason for expecting prices to collapse in 2023 and again in 2024? Because of high interest rates.
Essentially that’s all they have in their kit bag of real estate knowledge.
Interest rates high or rising? Property prices fall, according to the ANZ mindset.
Except they don’t – and they didn’t.
ANZ has a few problems at the moment. It’s been taken to court, successfully, by federal authorities like ASIC because it’s not only incompetent, it’s an organisation with dodgy ethics.
But once they sort out their legal issues, they might turn their attention to sacking their senior economists who continually pump out ridiculous reports claiming to be research – including absurdities like forecasting property price outcomes for the calendar year, just two months before the end of the year.
The report, rather comically, is titled “Property Insights” – but there is nothing insightful in this report or anything else emanating from ANZ any time in the past several years.