Australia’s Property Market Is Splitting In Two And The Numbers Explain Why
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is falling, but the downturn is far from uniform. The latest Cotality data reveals a striking divide between prestige and affordable housing, with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra’s top end recording the biggest declines while more affordable markets, regional areas and units show greater resilience. So, is Australia’s housing market really in freefall? Hotspotting examines the numbers behind the headlines and reveals what is really driving the current property market correction.
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Australia’s Housing Crisis And The Trust Crisis
Hotspotting
Australia’s housing crisis is raising serious questions about government policy, housing supply and the reliability of official claims. In this episode, Hotspotting examines what Treasury reportedly knew about the potential impact of changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax and SMSFs, and why house prices, rents and housing supply are now under such intense pressure. What does the evidence reveal about Australia’s housing market — and what should property investors, homeowners and first home buyers be watching next? Tune in for a sharp, evidence focused analysis of the policies and...
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Why Property Investors Are Walking Away - Mark Bouris & Tim Graham
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is changing — but the story is far more complicated than the national headlines suggest. Tim Graham recently joined Mark Bouris on the Property Insights podcast for a wide-ranging discussion about what is really happening across Australian real estate, where the opportunities may be emerging, and why investors need to look beyond historical price growth when deciding where to buy. They unpack how Hotspotting uses forward-looking indicators — including our proprietary Hotspotting Thermometer and Price Predictor Index — to measure market pressure, sales...
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Australia’s Housing Affordability Has Never Been This Bad
Hotspotting
Australia’s housing affordability crisis has reached an alarming new low. But if property prices are falling in many markets, why is housing becoming less affordable? Hotspotting examines the impact of higher interest rates, rising mortgage repayments and persistent inflation, revealing why modest price declines have done little to improve affordability. With a chronic shortage of housing still driving the market, this episode explores what is really preventing Australians from accessing affordable housing and why increasing supply remains the critical solution.
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Property Investors Are Panicking When They Should Be Looking For Opportunity
Hotspotting
Is property market panic distracting investors from the opportunities right in front of them? In this episode, Hotspotting cuts through the political noise and media frenzy surrounding Australia’s property market to examine what the fundamentals are really telling us. Despite policy uncertainty and predictions of falling property prices, housing demand remains strong, driven by population growth, infrastructure investment, chronic undersupply, tight rental vacancies and rising rents. With decades of property market expertise, Hotspotting explores why experienced investors should focus on...
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The Housing Budget Promised More But Delivered Less
Hotspotting
Is Australia’s Housing Strategy Actually Making The Housing Crisis Worse? The Albanese Government says its Budget is tackling housing affordability and helping first home buyers. But the latest evidence tells a very different story. Building approvals are falling, first home buyer activity is weakening, rents are rising and confidence is deteriorating — while Australia remains well behind the pace required to deliver 1.2 million new homes. In this episode, Hotspotting examines the latest ABS housing data, property prices, investor activity, first home buyer trends and the Government’s...
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Where Australia’s Next Affordable Property Opportunities Are Emerging
Hotspotting
Where are Australia’s genuinely affordable property opportunities hiding as house prices continue to rise? In this episode, Hotspotting explores the latest Cheapies With Prospects selections, revealing why the search for affordable property is increasingly shifting towards established unit, townhouse and apartment markets in Australia’s capital cities. We examine the fundamentals behind the opportunities, including rental yields, infrastructure, employment, population growth, healthcare, transport and future demand. We also look at five regional markets where affordability is backed by...
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The Housing Crisis Just Got Worse And Here’s Why
Hotspotting
New home sales have fallen for the third consecutive month, raising fresh questions about Australia’s housing supply crisis and the effectiveness of current government policy. In this episode, we examine the latest HIA data, the 13.5% quarterly decline in new home sales, and the growing impact of policy uncertainty, interest rates, property tax changes and weakening consumer confidence. With Australia already struggling to deliver enough new homes, could current policies be making the supply problem even worse? Get the expert property market analysis you need to understand what is...
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What Happened To The 50 Markets We Recommended Two Years Ago
Hotspotting
What if the strongest property investment opportunities are hiding in markets that offer both high rental yields and proven capital growth? In this episode, we examine the latest The Pulse results, revealing what happened to the 50 markets recommended two years ago. Every market recorded positive capital growth, with an average uplift of 38.4%, while rental growth averaged almost 15%. We explore why affordable houses and units with above average rental yields can also deliver strong capital growth, and what these results reveal about the Australian property market and the opportunities...
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Australia’s Rental Market Is Nowhere Near Recovery
Hotspotting
Australia’s rental crisis is becoming harder to ignore — and the latest vacancy data reveals just how tight the market has become. With the national rental vacancy rate at just 1.3%, well below the 3% benchmark for a balanced market, rental supply remains severely constrained across Australia. In this episode, Hotspotting examines why vacancies have stayed so low, what is driving continued rental pressure and why current policy settings could make conditions even tougher for tenants. With some capital cities recording vacancy rates below 1% and forecasts pointing to further rent increases,...
info_outlineANZ, the worst forecaster on property price outcomes in the nation, has just published its forecasts for what will happen with house prices in 2024.
Yes, that’s right. They’ve published, in October, forecasts for house prices this year, a couple of months before the end of the year.
Why have they done this? Because it’s the only chance ANZ has of getting it right with its property price forecasts.
Essentially what it has done with these “predictions” is take the existing situation and extrapolate it two months into the future.
So, you will be amazed to learn that they’re predicting that Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane will lead on price growth in 2024.
You’d pay good money for insights as sharp as that, right?!
The big four banks, collectively, have terrible track records in forecasting property price outcomes.
They are ALWAYS – and I do mean ALWAYS – wrong, but usually they are spectacularly wrong.
But ANZ bank is the worst of them.
At the start of 2024, it predicted house prices would fall across the nation in 2024 – by as much as 15%.
They did the same at the start of 2023 – forecasting massive decline in house prices.
Of course, it’s now clear that they got this horribly, horribly wrong – because they just don’t understand real estate dynamics.
Their reason for expecting prices to collapse in 2023 and again in 2024? Because of high interest rates.
Essentially that’s all they have in their kit bag of real estate knowledge.
Interest rates high or rising? Property prices fall, according to the ANZ mindset.
Except they don’t – and they didn’t.
ANZ has a few problems at the moment. It’s been taken to court, successfully, by federal authorities like ASIC because it’s not only incompetent, it’s an organisation with dodgy ethics.
But once they sort out their legal issues, they might turn their attention to sacking their senior economists who continually pump out ridiculous reports claiming to be research – including absurdities like forecasting property price outcomes for the calendar year, just two months before the end of the year.
The report, rather comically, is titled “Property Insights” – but there is nothing insightful in this report or anything else emanating from ANZ any time in the past several years.