Good News Bulletin 11 November 2020
Good News Bulletin 11 November 2020
The latest price data from SQM Research, Domain and from CoreLogic shows a strong performance by house prices right across Australia. I’m predicting a national property boom in Australia in the near future and the latest figures from these three major sources confirm that the strong up-cycle is already under way in many parts of the nation. The Domain figures show that every capital city had growth in their median house prices in the September Quarter - except Melbourne where there was no change. Apartment markets have been less bullish, and some capital cities have dropped (impacted by high CBD vacancy rates in the big cities), but even there the national averages are a 0.1% rise in the September Quarter and a 2.2% rise annually. The numbers overall are quite remarkable amid a pandemic-induced recession. In the September Quarter, house prices grew by 2.8% or more in four of the capital cities: Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra. Hobart rose 6.9% and Darwin by 6.6% - in the September Quarter alone. Many readers will be scratching their heads. We never hear about these markets, do we? We hear a lot about Sydney and Melbourne, but when’s the last time you read an article about the strong Adelaide housing market or Canberra property prices. How many are aware of the strong recovery under way in Darwin and also in Perth. In annual terms, all capital cities have house prices higher than a year ago. The national average is a rise of about 5% but individual cities have done much better. Hobart house prices are 16% higher than a year ago and Canberra is up 10%. Sydney, Adelaide and Darwin have all risen 7%. This reflects what we have observed month-by-month since the start of the pandemic, based on CoreLogic figures. Sydney and Melbourne have had numerous months in which house prices have dropped but the other capital cities have had growth months most of the time. Canberra has produced house price growth in each of the past eight months and Adelaide has had growth in seven of the eight months since February. Perth, Brisbane and Darwin recorded some down months, but bounced back in August, September and October, with Darwin showing particularly strong figures. Most regional markets have had sustained growth throughout the pandemic period since February, with Regional Tasmania delivering growth in every one of the past eight months, while Regional Queensland and Regional NSW delivered uplift in seven of the eight months. This strong showing by Regional Australia is seen also in the Domain figures just published. Despite the overall positive performance in the capital cities in the September Quarter, the capitals were out-performed by the regional markets. Domain reports that many regional markets have seen double-digit increases in their house prices, with some rising as much as 30%. Regional markets in Victoria, NSW, Tasmania and Queensland all have outstanding growth performances. Among the best have been the Southern Grampians in Victoria (up 31%), the Byron Bay region in NSW (up 29%), Forbes in NSW (up 22%), the Isaac LGA in Queensland (up 23%) and the Derwent Valley in Tasmania (up 28%). My own price analysis in recent weeks confirms strong regional uplift, with notable growth in the top end of the Sunshine Coast market, with some suburbs up about 30% in annual terms. Now this week we had the weekly report on prices from SQM Research. It shows that all eight capital cities have recorded growth in house prices in the past month and seven of the eight have had annual price growth. SQM’s Prices Index shows that the national average was a 2.3% rise in the rolling month index (the month to 10 November) and a 5.6% increase in annual terms, with regional areas showing better growth than the capital cities. The monthly increases by the eight capital cities were headed by a 2.9% rise in Hobart and a 2.2% rise in Sydney. Perth was up 1.7% and Brisbane 1.2% for the month. Melbourne returned to growth with a 0.4% monthly rise. In annual terms, Hobart leads with a 10% increase in house prices, while Melbourne is up 7% and Sydney 6%. Now think about it. We’ve all seen the headlines, which were particularly strident in March and April, forecasting a collapse in property prices. But residential property has not collapsed. It has done rather the opposite. Prices are rising in most locations around Australia. The national property boom I’m forecasting is already under way in many parts of the nation. And the infrastructure-led economy recovery planned by federal and state politicians will turbocharge this trend. Stay tuned.