Hotspotting

Uncovering hot property markets, today. Hotspotting has always been about helping investors find the best location to buy based on quality research. The Hotspotting Podcast is a Real Estate Property Investment show and delivers this information and more! In each episode Terry Ryder from Hotspotting will bring you knowledge and interesting conversation on everything a property buyer wants and needs to know to make informed decisions. From unravelling the latest data, trends and market statistics, discussing areas of growth and the bigger issues influencing Australia’s property landscape. Whether you're a seasoned property investor or you're buying your first home, we’re here to build your knowledge. Knowledge gives you the power to make smarter investment choices. About Terry Ryder Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. For over 35 years, Terry Ryder has been a specialist researcher/writer on residential property in Australia. In 2006 he created Hotspotting.com.au to help investors find the best places to buy. Terry’s reports and commentary are based quality data and information. His views are totally independent and free of vested interests or outside influences.

Brisbane Market 11/23/2023

Brisbane Market The Greater Brisbane market has gone to another level with its recent recovery, following a major surge in the number of suburbs with positive rankings. We’ve just completed our latest quarterly survey of sales activity for Brisbane and it reveals that there are now 83 suburbs ranked as rising markets, compared with 38 three months ago and just 12 six months ago. It’s the highest number since mid-2022. This represents a notable turnaround from the situation recorded in our Winter 2023 survey six months ago. Now 36% of suburbs are rising markets (compared with just 5% six months ago) and 85% overall have positive rankings (compared with 21% six months ago). Six months ago in our Winter 2023 survey we commented that, then, it was the worst Brisbane market we have recorded in the eight years of our quarterly surveys of sales activity. But the Spring 2023 survey three months ago recorded the start of a major revival. And now our new quarterly survey shows further uplift in the Brisbane market. Now 85% of Greater Brisbane suburbs have positive rankings and the number of suburbs with negative assessments has dropped in six months from 181 to just 34. There are now no suburbs classified as declining markets, compared with 71 declining suburbs six months ago. This is a truly dramatic turnaround in the Brisbane market. All sectors of the Greater Brisbane market are performing, with the Brisbane-inner precinct emerging increasingly as a leader. All but two of the 23 suburbs in our survey have positive classifications, including 11 ranked as rising markets. This reflects a trend evident in all the major cities of Australia, with more buyers opting for apartments in inner-city locations. The Brisbane-north precinct is pumping strongly: 35 of the 41 suburbs in our analysis have positive rankings, including 20 rising suburbs – suburbs such as Brighton; Bridgeman Downs; Nundah; and Wavell Heights. Neighbouring Moreton Bay region is equally busy: 36 of the 41 suburbs have positive classifications, including 15 rising suburbs. The Brisbane-east precinct has some notable examples of the revival trend, including Bulimba; Cannon Hill; and Manly West. Overall, 15 of the 20 Brisbane-east precinct suburbs have positive numbers. This trend is repeated throughout all the sectors of the Greater Brisbane market, including Logan City in the south, Ipswich City in the south-west and Redland City in the south-east. Overall, the results depict a Brisbane market which has recovered emphatically from the previous downturn and which now presents as a booming market. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28775783

How to be part of the 1% in 2024 11/22/2023

Politicians Making Inflation Worse 11/09/2023

Politicians Making Inflation Worse We elect politicians to fix problems and make people’s lives better. But increasingly our elected representatives are doing the opposite. They’re creating new problems, exacerbating existing ones and failing to find solutions to any of the pressing issues. The biggest issues facing most Australian households right now – according to the surveys - are the cost of living and rising accommodation costs. Soaring prices for petrol, electricity and food are a major burden for many families and the shortage of homes, a problem created by politicians, is getting worse – thereby pushing up property prices and residential rents. The Federal Government has taken no effective action to deal with these core problems. There’s a lot they could do to deal with petrol prices, power prices and the shortage of housing, but they’ve thrown up their hands and essentially told us is out of their hands. They’re leaving it to the Reserve Bank to solve inflation by putting up interest rates – a move which has added to inflationary pressures in many key areas, including residential rents. And now we have analysis from the International Monetary Fund, which has concluded that the spending boom on infrastructure by governments across Australia is one of the biggest contributors to high inflation. The IMF says the unusually high level of government spending on infrastructure has helped push the nation’s economy beyond full capacity, which has forced the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates further to tame inflation. In effect, Australian mortgage holders are being forced to bear the consequences of higher interest rates because government spending has over-expanded and is heating up demand that the Reserve Bank is trying to hose down. It’s bizarre, isn’t it? Politicians have made serious errors of judgment which have caused high inflation and the Reserve Bank’s response is to punish the one-third of Australian households which have mortgages. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28562825

Major Price Boom Coming 11/09/2023

Major Price Boom Coming Are we on the cusp of another substantial rise in real estate values? One of Australia’s best real estate analysts believes we are. Simon Pressley, head of research at Propertyology and one of the best property market analysts in the nation, says Australia is just weeks away from the start of what he calls “an intense surge in housing values”. Before I describe his rationale, let me say that Simon Pressley is right with his forecasts more often than most in Australia – and is infinitely more credible than any of the major bank economists who constantly get it wrong with their house price predictions. Pressley says “the evidence is pointing to a window which is likely to produce capital growth rates that are rarely seen”. He says the evidence says Australian property markets are already booming – prices up 8% in the first 10 months of 2023 – but he suggests that the rate of growth in real estate values is about to accelerate even more. He says: “A logical and objective assessment of a collection of evidence suggests that the quarter starting on 1 January is likely to produce a rate of growth which is rarely seen.” He says that capital growth around 20% on an annualised basis is not out of the question in some locations. Here’s the rationale:- 1. The data shows that growth rates are accelerating already. 2. We still have a very low volume of properties listed for sale – indeed 27% lower than at the same time five years ago, when the population was 1.5 million less than now. 3. In coming months, supply volumes will reduce by a further 10% or so, because we’re coming into the Christmas/New Year period. 4. Buyers have more confidence heading into the start of 2024 and many will buy early in the New Year. 5. Interest rates are expected are begin falling early in 2024. 6. Then there is the ongoing influx of overseas migrants in record numbers 7. All this will put upward pressure on property prices Pressley also observes than even the bears are bullish, noting that the major banks are now forecasting solid price rises in 2024. And I have to say I agree with most of the points he makes. His logic is sound and it confirms our thinking at Hotspotting. Many of the underlying points are also supported by a recent report published by PropTrack. Here’s what PropTrack says ... The 2023 price upturn is firmly entrenched with home prices hitting fresh record highs in many markets in October. PropTrack says price growth has clearly accelerated since 2022. Capital city markets have led the price upturn in 2023 while regional areas have had slower growth. But he pace of growth in regional markets has begun to increase after lagging much of this year and in October, regional prices rose further to set a fresh record high. Price growth has accelerated right around the country relative to earlier in the year, with the exception of regional SA and NT. So, the overall picture is one where property prices have been rising since the start of 2023, the rate of growth is picking up – and the pace of price rises is expected to go to another level early in the New Year. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28562807

Renting And Health 11/08/2023

Renting And Health We know that renting can be bad for your financial health, but a new study has revealed that renting is also bad for your physical wellbeing. According to the study, people who rent age faster than people who own their homes. It also indicates that renting is worse for your health than smoking and unemployment. The study was conducted jointly by the University of Adelaide and the University of Essex in the UK and took a sample of 1,420 adults – comparing the impact of various housing elements such as ownership status, building type, location and heating on the ageing process. Biological ageing, the cumulative damage to body tissue and cells that occurs regardless of chronological age, was found to occur more quickly among those who rent. Why? According to the researchers, the stresses of housing insecurity and unaffordability are the most likely factors driving this link. Lead researcher Dr Amy Clair from the University of Adelaide said: “Housing circumstances have a significant impact on biological ageing, even more so than other important social determinants, such as unemployment.” She concluded that “it is therefore likely that private renters in Australia might experience accelerated biological ageing” as long as the rental crisis continues. The University of Adelaide’s professor of housing research, Emma Baker, said that “policies to reduce the stress and uncertainty associated with private renting, such as ending ‘no- grounds’ evictions, limiting rent increases and improving conditions, may go some way to reducing the negative impacts of private renting.” But she failed to factor in the reality that implementing those kinds of policies – particularly rental controls and anti-landlord legislation - will cause even more investors owners to sell up and get out of the market, further reducing the availability of rental properties and worsening the shortage. Not being able to find a rental property at any price is a bigger stress than having a rental home and struggling to afford it. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28552340

Banks Incentive For Investors 11/08/2023

Banks Incentive For Investors It’s quite unusual to see major lenders doing something proactive to encourage investors. Generally the big banks, along with all levels of government, treat property investors as cash cows, with higher charges for everything compared with what home buyers are charged. That includes higher interest rates, higher insurance rates, higher council rates, higher rates of stamp duty - plus taxes that home owners don’t have to pay, like land tax and capital gains tax. There’s no justification for any of that, other than the reality that investors are a minority and it’s politically more palatable to slug them and not home-owners. But right now it appears that the big banks believe property investors deserve some encouragement. Evidently, they believe investors will be returning to the residential market in large numbers because rising immigration will lead an extended rent squeeze. The 2023 net immigration number is the equivalent of a city the size of Newcastle being added to the population, with major impact on housing supply – at a time when the national average rental vacancy rate is around 1% and considerably lower in many parts of the nation – and building approvals are falling when we need them to be rising. Commonwealth Bank, the nation‘s biggest lender, has now announced it will allow investors to borrow up to 95% of property’s value. The bank’s previous maximum was 90%. That means investors can get a loan to buy a property with less of a deposit. At the same time, another big four bank, NAB, has upgraded its forecasts on the outlook for residential property this calendar year to 8% nationwide, after another upgrade earlier in the year had suggested 5% - and not forgetting that at the start of the year they forecast house prices would fall 15% or more in 2023. Across Australia, residential property prices have been rising, month by month, for all the 2023 calendar year. In addition, rental income has been showing double-digit growth - but investors have largely remained on the sidelines, having been massively discouraged by a range of policies at all three levels of government. NAB’s figures suggest the number of investors buying in the market has turned the corner with signs of early growth. It says the market share of “local investors for established houses” has nudged up to 18% but still remains well below average. Overall, it appears some of the big banks are seeing better prospects and higher activity ahead for property investors across Australia. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28552298

Adelaide: A Model of Consistency in Australia's Real Estate Market 11/08/2023

Adelaide: A Model of Consistency in Australia's Real Estate Market The remarkable steadiness for which the Adelaide market is renowned continues, with our latest survey of market activity showing that most suburbs in the South Australian capital have busy markets and rising prices. Consistency has become the key defining feature of the Adelaide market. Our Spring survey found that while there are relatively few suburbs classified as rising markets in Adelaide, there are large numbers of consistency suburbs – with steady sales levels over the past few years. Overall, seven out of 10 suburbs have positive rankings – which is one of the highest in the nation. There are three key factors which underpin ongoing demand in the Adelaide market. One is that South Australia is one of the nation’s strongest economies and continues to thrive on the state’s innovation in the areas of technology and alternative energy, as well as being a key location for education and the Defence industry. Another big factor is affordability. Despite recent good growth, Adelaide is considerably cheaper than Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane or Canberra. Homes in Adelaide are around half the price of Sydney’s. Adelaide and Perth are the only capital cities in Australia where you can still find a good supply of houses in the $300,000s and $400,000s. The third factor about Adelaide is the resilience and consistency of its market. In 2022, when prices generally fell in the bigger cities, Adelaide continued to deliver price growth. And that steady performance has continued in 2023. In the first nine months of this year, the median house price for Adelaide rose 5.3%, according to CoreLogic, while the median unit price increased 6.1%, which was above the national average. And Adelaide continues to have one of the tightest rental markets anywhere in the nation. The national vacancy rate, according to SQM Research, is 1.1% - but Adelaide is less than half that national average, at 0.5%. As a result, residential rents in Adelaide have increased more than 10% in the past 12 months. Overall, Adelaide presents as one of Australia’s strongest markets, with consistency of performance its defining characteristic. /episode/index/show/hotspotting/id/28552274