Why Hotspotting’s Best Buys Report Keeps Finding Winning Markets
Hotspotting
How accurate are property market forecasts when tested against real results? In this episode, Hotspotting revisits the March 2024 National Top 10 Best Buys Report to examine how its recommended Australian property markets have performed over the past two years. The results reveal strong capital growth across key locations, with standout performers delivering exceptional returns and validating the research signals that identified these markets early. We unpack the data, highlight the top performing regions, and explain the market indicators smart property investors should watch when identifying...
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How Media Distorts Property Data And Misguides Investors
Hotspotting
Most coverage of the Australian property market focuses on headlines, not reality. In this episode, we unpack why mainstream media reporting can significantly distort how buyers, sellers, and investors perceive market conditions. We examine recent housing data from leading sources including Domain, Cotality, and PropTrack, revealing a more nuanced picture of Australia’s real estate performance. While media narratives often emphasise short-term weakness, the broader data shows widespread growth across capital city and regional markets, particularly in house and unit price trends over recent...
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Australia’s Rental Shortage Has Reached Breaking Point
Hotspotting
Australia’s rental crisis is deepening, but the real story goes far beyond rising rents and low vacancy rates. In this episode, we unpack the structural forces driving Australia’s worsening rental shortage — from policy decisions at state and federal level, to rising costs of property ownership, and the unintended consequences shaping investor behaviour and housing supply. With vacancy rates at critically low levels across most capital cities, and affordability deteriorating for tenants nationwide, the data reveals a market under sustained and growing pressure. We explore why...
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Australia’s Best Performing Property Markets Revealed By The Pulse
Hotspotting
What if the strongest property investment opportunities could be identified before the market surge? In this episode, we unpack the standout results from The Pulse and reveal how Hotspotting’s market analysis identified 50 Australian locations that went on to deliver exceptional performance over the past two years. With every market recording positive capital growth, average gains of 41%, and top performers climbing as high as 78%, this episode explores the data, trends and market fundamentals driving these remarkable outcomes. We examine the suburbs that delivered the biggest...
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Australia’s Rental Crisis Explained | Supply, Policy & What Happens Next
Hotspotting
With vacancy rates at record lows and rents consuming more household income than ever… is Australia’s rental crisis getting worse? In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham is joined by Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting, to unpack the real drivers behind Australia’s housing shortage — and why the situation continues to deteriorate. With national vacancy rates sitting around 1%, well below the ~3% level considered a balanced market, and more than 3,400 people arriving in Australia every day, the pressure on rental supply is intensifying — and there are no quick fixes...
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The Safe Haven Strategy Australians Trust When Markets Turn
Hotspotting
When global markets turn volatile, where does capital seek safety? In this episode, we explore why Australian property continues to demonstrate resilience amid economic uncertainty, share market swings, and geopolitical disruption. Drawing on historical cycles including the dotcom crash, the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID, we examine a consistent theme: while equities react sharply to global events, Australian real estate remains underpinned by structural demand, limited supply, and long term fundamentals. We unpack the key drivers shaping the market today, including population...
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The Myths Driving Australia’s Property Narrative And What The Data Shows
Hotspotting
Australia’s housing crisis continues to dominate headlines, political debate and public discourse, yet meaningful progress remains elusive. In this episode, we take a clear, evidence-based look at why decades of inquiries, policy interventions and commentary have failed to materially improve housing affordability, supply and rental conditions across the country. We unpack the structural drivers behind the shortage of dwellings, the persistent rise in construction costs and build times, and the disconnect between policy narratives and market realities. The discussion also challenges widely...
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Why The RBA Rise Is Kindergarten Economics and Grossly Unfair
Hotspotting
Are interest rate hikes really fixing inflation—or just shifting the pain? In this episode, we take a hard look at the latest move by the Reserve Bank of Australia and unpack why raising rates may be a blunt, outdated response to a complex economic problem. With the cash rate climbing to 4.10% under Governor Michele Bullock, we examine who actually bears the cost—and why mortgage holders continue to carry the heaviest load. Drawing on economic data and policy insights, we explore the real drivers of inflation in Australia, from energy prices and housing supply to government spending...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
info_outlinePoliticians and journalists love to scapegoat and demonise, particularly with issues impacting housing markets – with property investors always a popular target.
Australia’s love of scapegoating is one of the reasons the nation seldom resolves any of the key issues it faces.
Politicians hold press conferences, they stage inquiries, they bring on royal commissions, they make announcements – but the recurring theme is looking for someone to blame and to vilify – preferably someone other than themselves.
In real estate, investors and related issues like negative gearing are blamed for all the problems afflicting the housing industry – including poor affordability and rising rents.
But, according to analysis by the Reserve Bank, property investors have copped the brunt of rising interest rates and haven’t passed on their impact to tenants in the form of higher rents – or, not much.
New Reserve Bank research debunks the idea that so-called greedy landlords simply pass on higher mortgage costs to their tenants via rent increases.
According to the RBA analysis, after analysing years of investor tax returns, for every $1 increase in home loan interest repayments, property investors have raised rents by just 1¢.
The RBA economists who wrote the report said: “To put this effect in context, the median monthly interest payment for leveraged investors increased by around $850 between April 2022 and January 2024.
“Our estimate suggests that this $850 increase in interest costs would have raised rents by less than $10 per month, or just over $2 per week.”
The research, released in the RBA’s quarterly bulletin, is an attempt by the central bank to refute the commonly held perception that landlords pass simply higher interest rates on to renters.
While there is a public perception that rents and interest rates tend to move in tandem, the RBA says this is more a case of correlation rather than causation.
The RBA says: “Pinning down the relationship between interest rates and rents is tricky because both will tend to move together with the economic cycle.
“For example, a strong economy, with a pick-up in income growth, will see increased demand for rental properties. This will put upward pressure on rents. At the same time, interest rates may be raised to reduce inflationary pressures.”
So they’re saying that rising rents and rising interest rates tend to occur at the same time, rather than one causing the other.
The sample period for this research includes two other interest rate tightening cycles, including immediately before and after the global financial crisis.
RBA governor Michele Bullock said in August the fundamental reason rents were increasing so quickly was because there was not enough housing supply to meet demand.
Bullock told a parliamentary hearing: “Landlords can only pass on interest rate rises into rents if there is demand for those properties. If there isn’t, then it’s very difficult for them to pass those costs on.”
The researchers said that housing demand had been strong due to high population growth and an increase in the number of households with spare rooms.
Meanwhile, supply had been hampered by rising construction costs, which the RBA says have increased 40 per cent over the past four years – although other estimates say they have risen more than 50% in the past three years.
You could argue that the RBA has a vested interest in the argument they are presenting, because many believe that higher interest rates have driven increases in rents over the last few years - and therefore Bullock and the other financial elites on the RBA board are to blame for the rise and rise of residential rentals.
What do I think? I don’t think much of the RBA and its arrogant out-of-touch behaviour which sees only economic graphs, charts and numbers – and displays no feeling for the impact of their ivory tower decisions on ordinary Australians, without achieving the end goal of actually taming inflation.
But, I think they’re correct in this instance.
Higher interest rates have not caused higher rents. It doesn’t matter how high interest rates go, or any of the other rising costs of property ownership – investors can increase rents ONLY if there’s high demand and low supply.
It’s historically low vacancies that have caused rents to rise and rise – not high interest rates.