Australia’s Rental Crisis Explained | Supply, Policy & What Happens Next
Hotspotting
With vacancy rates at record lows and rents consuming more household income than ever… is Australia’s rental crisis getting worse? In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham is joined by Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting, to unpack the real drivers behind Australia’s housing shortage — and why the situation continues to deteriorate. With national vacancy rates sitting around 1%, well below the ~3% level considered a balanced market, and more than 3,400 people arriving in Australia every day, the pressure on rental supply is intensifying — and there are no quick fixes...
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The Safe Haven Strategy Australians Trust When Markets Turn
Hotspotting
When global markets turn volatile, where does capital seek safety? In this episode, we explore why Australian property continues to demonstrate resilience amid economic uncertainty, share market swings, and geopolitical disruption. Drawing on historical cycles including the dotcom crash, the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID, we examine a consistent theme: while equities react sharply to global events, Australian real estate remains underpinned by structural demand, limited supply, and long term fundamentals. We unpack the key drivers shaping the market today, including population...
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The Myths Driving Australia’s Property Narrative And What The Data Shows
Hotspotting
Australia’s housing crisis continues to dominate headlines, political debate and public discourse, yet meaningful progress remains elusive. In this episode, we take a clear, evidence-based look at why decades of inquiries, policy interventions and commentary have failed to materially improve housing affordability, supply and rental conditions across the country. We unpack the structural drivers behind the shortage of dwellings, the persistent rise in construction costs and build times, and the disconnect between policy narratives and market realities. The discussion also challenges widely...
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Why The RBA Rise Is Kindergarten Economics and Grossly Unfair
Hotspotting
Are interest rate hikes really fixing inflation—or just shifting the pain? In this episode, we take a hard look at the latest move by the Reserve Bank of Australia and unpack why raising rates may be a blunt, outdated response to a complex economic problem. With the cash rate climbing to 4.10% under Governor Michele Bullock, we examine who actually bears the cost—and why mortgage holders continue to carry the heaviest load. Drawing on economic data and policy insights, we explore the real drivers of inflation in Australia, from energy prices and housing supply to government spending...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
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The Supply Crisis Keeping Australia’s Property Market Under Pressure
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is under pressure like never before. Listings are low, vacancies are tight, and new supply is failing to meet demand. Why are prices and rents continuing to rise despite government interventions? In this episode, we cut through the headlines to uncover the real drivers of the housing crunch. From shrinking rental stock to a stalled construction pipeline, we explore the structural challenges shaping the market and what it means for buyers, renters, and investors. Tune in for expert insights, data-backed analysis, and a clear view of why scarcity is the true force...
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How The Price Predictor Index Spots Australia’s Next Property Boom
Hotspotting
Want to know which Australian suburbs and regional markets are set to surge next? In this episode, we dive into the Price Predictor Index, Hotspotting’s proven tool for identifying growth areas before the rest of the market catches on. Hear how rising sales volumes act as early signals of property price growth and discover the methodology that has consistently predicted booms from Adelaide to Darwin. We break down the patterns, the trends, and the insights every property investor and market watcher needs to stay ahead. If you’re serious about property investment or spotting the next growth...
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Inside The First Home Buyer Surge And What The Data Really Shows
Hotspotting
Are first home buyers really locked out of the Australian property market or is that just a headline-driven myth? In this episode, we unpack the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and reveal what is actually happening on the ground. The numbers show first home buyers are not only active, they are a major force shaping demand and influencing property prices. We cut through the noise to examine the real issue driving affordability pressures: constrained housing supply. With low listings, underbuilding, and intense competition at the entry level, first home buyers are adapting...
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Why Property Values Rise
Hotspotting
Are you looking for the next property hotspot — but tired of backward-looking reports that tell you what’s already happened? In this episode, we reveal the Empirical Formula, a fact-based method I’ve developed over decades to identify locations poised for genuine future growth. From diverse local economies to major infrastructure projects and affordability, we break down the key factors that make certain suburbs stand out. Learn how Hotspotting cuts through the hype and helps investors make smarter, forward-looking property decisions. Whether you’re a first-time buyer or seasoned...
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The Mind Behind Hotspotting: A 20-Year Founder Interview with Terry Ryder
Hotspotting
In this special founder interview, Terry Ryder shares the story behind Hotspotting — from launching the business in a garage in Maleny in 2006 to becoming one of Australia’s most respected independent real estate research platforms. What sparked the idea? Why did Terry believe there needed to be a better way to identify property hotspots? And what has been the core principle behind Hotspotting’s success for two decades? Over the past 20 years, Hotspotting has built its reputation on something simple but powerful: We don’t just report what has happened — we identify what’s likely to...
info_outlineIf you’re confused about what’s happening with rents in Australia, you can be forgiven.
That’s especially so if you use news media as your main source of information about residential real estate.
The information – or perhaps more correctly, misinformation – in news media is highly confusing and in many cases contradictory, with one headline saying the complete opposite to another.
Here are two headlines that appeared on the same day, the 10th of January:
The worst is over: slowest rise in rents in four years
Affordability crisis: tenants feel the pinch as rents surge
So, as usual, Australian real estate consumers need to look elsewhere, somewhere other than mainstream media, to find out what’s really happening in housing markets.
One of the strange things about residential rents, which pops up regularly in news media, is the bizarre notion that if the latest stats suggest that the rate of growth in rents is slowing, then tenants across the nation are celebrating.
They’re apparently popping champagne corks because the rate of rental growth currently is less than it was last year.
Let’s be clear: the greatest wish of tenants is NOT slower growth in rents. It’s NOT for rents to stop growing. And contrary to the apparent belief of The Greens, they don’t want a rental cap. What they want is for rents to FALL.
People who rent in Australia, about a third of households, want to see a bigger choice of places to live in – in other words, they want higher vacancies. And they want rents to come down.
There are two main reasons why that isn’t happening and cannot happen:
(1) because vacancies are at historic lows, as they have been now for three years, and there are no remedies in sight; and
(2) because interest rates are persistently high and the owners of rental properties need high rents to cover their costs.
Having said that, it’s clear that - in some locations - rents have reached a ceiling and are unlikely to go much higher in the short term. Tenants cannot keep paying higher and higher rents – and higher and higher proportions of their incomes – on rental accommodation.
That is why the rate of growth in rents has slowed in SOME – but certainly not all – locations across Australia.
But the true wish among tenants – for rents to decline – is highly unlikely to happen any time soon.
SNIPPET:
There’s a lot of confusing and conflicting information in mainstream media about what’s happening with residential rents.
Some headlines have declared that the worst is over for tenants because the rate of growth in rents is slowing down – as a national average.
But other headlines have claimed that rents continue to surge higher and tenants continue to be in a world of pain.
The reality is that rents are still rising, although in SOME locations the rate of growth is slowing down.
But with vacancy rates continuing to be at historic lows in most places across Australia, and interest rates stubbornly high, we don’t have the conditions for rents to fall any time soon – particularly as there are no solutions in sight for the shortage which is causing rents to be high and rising.