Australia’s Rental Crisis Explained | Supply, Policy & What Happens Next
Release Date: 04/24/2026
ABC Radio Interview with Tim Graham
Hotspotting
Australia’s property market is cooling — but is Australia really in a property recession? In this interview with ABC Radio Adelaide, Hotspotting Managing Director Tim Graham cuts through the headlines to explain what is actually happening across Australia’s highly fragmented property market. Tim discusses the slowdown in national conditions, why the current market is far more nuanced than the term “property recession” suggests, and why buyers, sellers and investors need to look beyond the national headlines. Tim also explains Hotspotting’s new Thermometer methodology, which...
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Property Market Panic Versus Reality What The Data Shows
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Are Australia’s property markets really in decline, or is the media narrative missing the bigger picture? In this episode, Hotspotting examines the latest Cotality price data for the May to July quarter, revealing where Australian property prices are falling, where they are holding firm and where growth is continuing. Sydney and Melbourne recorded the most significant house price declines, but regional markets and units are proving far more resilient, with several markets continuing to record price growth despite higher interest rates and ongoing disruption. Tune in for a data driven...
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11,000 Homes Gone And The Housing Crisis Deepens
Hotspotting
Australia has no shortage of housing plans. The real shortage is homes being delivered. In this episode, Hotspotting examines the collapse of Sydney’s $9 billion Moore Point development, which proposed 11,000 homes and 23,000 jobs but was abandoned after more than a decade of planning. The project’s failure exposes a critical question: how can Australia solve its housing shortage when major developments capable of delivering thousands of dwellings cannot navigate the planning system? We explore the impact of planning delays, development costs, bureaucracy and government decision-making on...
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Australia’s Apartment Market Is Stronger Than Most Realise
Hotspotting
Australia’s apartment market is gaining momentum — and changing investor conditions could make new apartments an increasingly important property investment opportunity. In this episode, we examine the data behind the rise of apartments, including 242 apartment markets delivering yields of 5% or more, compared with just 47 house markets. With lower purchase prices, strong tenant demand, rising rents and improving capital growth, apartments are becoming harder for property investors to overlook. We explore the strongest apartment markets across Australia, why Sydney leads the nation for high...
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The Commercial Advantage | Webinar Replay
Hotspotting
Australia’s property investment landscape has changed — and for many investors, commercial property is suddenly becoming a much bigger part of the conversation. In this webinar, Hotspotting founder Terry Ryder is joined by Steve Palise, Managing Director of Palise Property, to explore why commercial property may offer investors a compelling alternative in the new investment environment. Steve explains why commercial is increasingly shifting from an “exit strategy” for experienced residential investors to something investors are considering much earlier in their journey. They discuss: ...
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The Winter 2026 Price Predictor Index Has Just Revealed The Next Market Movers
Hotspotting
What if the biggest opportunities in Australia's property market aren't making the headlines? In this episode, we unpack the Winter 2026 Price Predictor Index, revealing why it's our most comprehensive market analysis yet. Covering 3,742 suburb markets across 342 Local Government Areas, the latest report combines proven sales volume analysis with the Hotspotting Thermometer to identify where markets are strengthening, recovering, holding steady or beginning to soften. Discover why headline median prices often fail to tell the full story, which markets are outperforming expectations, and how...
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Is This Really The Best Time To Buy Your First Home
Hotspotting
Is this really the best time to be a first home buyer in Australia? Recent claims from the Federal Government suggest there's never been a better opportunity to enter the housing market, but what does the data actually reveal? In this episode, we cut through the political messaging to examine the latest property prices, buyer sentiment, mortgage demand and market conditions. Discover what the evidence says about affordability, first home buyers and the realities facing Australians looking to purchase property today. For independent, data driven analysis of the Australian property market, tune...
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How Homebuyers Bid Up Prices
Hotspotting
Are property investors really driving Australia's housing prices higher? The latest research suggests the answer may surprise you. In this episode, Terry Ryder examines why home buyers—not investors—are often the biggest force behind rising property prices. Using real auction results, market data and independent research, he explains how competition between owner-occupiers continues to push prices higher, even when investors step away. Discover what the latest analysis from KPMG and Cotality reveals about Australia's property market, why housing supply remains the real issue, and how...
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Home Ownership Rises in Key States
Hotspotting
What if one of the biggest assumptions about Australia's housing crisis isn't supported by the evidence? New KPMG research challenges the claim that investors are pushing home buyers out of the market, revealing rising home ownership in Australia's strongest-performing property markets. We unpack the data, explore what it means for housing affordability, and examine why supply—not investors—may be the real issue. Tune in for independent, evidence-based insights into Australia's property market, housing policy and the trends shaping the nation's real estate future.
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Why The Government Got Housing Policy So Wrong
Hotspotting
For years, property investors have been blamed for Australia's housing affordability challenges. But what if the data tells a very different story? In this episode, Terry Ryder unpacks new research from Cotality that challenges one of the key assumptions behind the Federal Government's housing policy. Drawing on 16 years of data across around 3,000 Australian suburbs, the analysis shows that owner occupiers, not investors, have been the strongest force behind long term property price growth. Discover what these findings mean for housing affordability, property investment, rental supply and the...
info_outlineWith vacancy rates at record lows and rents consuming more household income than ever… is Australia’s rental crisis getting worse?
In this episode of The Property Playbook, host Tim Graham is joined by Terry Ryder, Founder of Hotspotting, to unpack the real drivers behind Australia’s housing shortage — and why the situation continues to deteriorate. With national vacancy rates sitting around 1%, well below the ~3% level considered a balanced market, and more than 3,400 people arriving in Australia every day, the pressure on rental supply is intensifying — and there are no quick fixes in sight.
In This Episode, You’ll Learn:
• Why Australia’s rental crisis is fundamentally a supply and demand issue
• How vacancy rates have remained critically low for over two decades
• Why rents have risen from ~25% to over 33% of household income
• The role of government policy — and why it hasn’t solved the problem
• Why changing tenant laws doesn’t fix the core issue of supply
• The impact of taxes, fees and red tape on new housing development
• Why construction costs are approaching $1 million per home in major cities
• How regulation and compliance are driving up costs and delaying supply
• The risks of reducing investor incentives like negative gearing
• Why mum-and-dad investors supply over 90% of rental housing
• The reality that many landlords are operating at a loss despite rising rents
• Why rental caps and policy interventions could make the crisis worse
Key Takeaway
The rental crisis isn’t new — and it isn’t improving.
As Terry explains, the core issue is simple:
- Australia doesn’t have enough homes — and we’re not building them fast enough.
- Until supply increases meaningfully, vacancy rates will remain tight and rents will continue to rise.
- And while policy debates continue, the real risk is that well-intentioned changes may actually make the situation worse.
About The Property Playbook
The Property Playbook features weekly conversations with Australia’s leading property experts — delivering practical, forward-looking insights to help investors make smarter decisions.
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