Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Release Date: 03/03/2026
Is there value in Shoprite at all-time highs?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Shoprite is trading at all-time highs and has still de-rated 23% in two years. Simon Brown works through the FY26 numbers — 7% revenue growth, a 6% trading margin, HEPS up 12.2% and internal selling price inflation of just 0.8% against national food inflation of 3.9% — and asks whether a business generating a 19.8% return on invested capital against an 11.5% cost of capital is still offering value at 314c. Sixty60 gets the closest look: R25.5bn of sales, 11.1% of South African supermarket sales, and a super app strategy reaching into coffee, cellular, pets, pharmacy and financial...
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Oil, elections, rates and gold: the four things that matter
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
This week WorldWideMarkets runs Simon Brown's keynote from a corporate event: four slides on the four issues facing global markets right now, with AI deliberately left off the list. The world lost roughly 20% of its oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz closed, and Brent still only reached $120 — Simon explains why the oil market had far more slack than anyone realised, and why $80 rather than $60 is the level to plan around. He then covers the rand at R15.92, the two elections falling on 3 and 4 November, and the story he thinks matters most: $40 trillion of US government debt now costing...
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Ranking JSE gold miners as the yellow metal is on the move
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is selling short-dated paper and buying long in an attempt to force the 10 and 30-year yields lower. Simon Brown explains why fighting a market rarely ends well, and what that trade has already done to gold and the rand. With gold back at $4,630 and the rand at R16, he then works through all five JSE-listed gold miners — Pan African, DRDGOLD, Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti — comparing production, all-in sustaining costs, balance sheets and analyst price targets, before ranking them and setting out the specific red flag attached to each. He...
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Cheap for a Reason: ABSA versus Nedbank. Which to buy?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Absa and Nedbank are the two cheap banks on the JSE, both trading near 1.2 times tangible book while Standard Bank and FirstRand sit close to two. Simon Brown puts them side by side after both reported and finds numbers so similar that valuation stops being the question: the same fifteen percent return on equity, the same credit loss ratio near zero point nine percent, the same capital. What separates them is that Nedbank has committed to seventeen percent return on equity by 2028 and Absa has not. He also covers the expiry of the sixty-day Iran accord with Brent above ninety dollars, long...
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Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding customers, but it hasn't started healing. Simon Brown goes deep on the retailer's 20-week trading update, where group turnover rose 2.7% while core Pick n Pay SA supermarkets went backwards. He unpacks the so-called negative stub — a R14 billion market cap against an R18.8 billion stake in Boxer plus cash — and explains why capital gains tax makes those "free" 1,538 stores a lot less free. He also looks at the Section 189A labour consultation covering 22,000 employees, the base rates on retail turnarounds globally, and why Shoprite's ability to absorb...
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Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not. Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure. Also covered: US earnings season running at 47%...
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Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks...
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Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap. In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA...
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Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started. He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels. He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the...
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Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years. This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice. He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert. Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn...
info_outline⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰
This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.
Key Changes:
- 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
- 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
- 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
- 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
- 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
- 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
- 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m
After years of “tax by stealth,” this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.
💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free?
Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:
- ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
- 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.
Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn’t deployed it yet 👀
💻 Dell Delivers 🚀
Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.
- Entry around $118
- Now trading near $153
- AI infrastructure demand driving upside
- Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis
US markets don’t play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.
🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥
The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.
Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.
Key Developments:
- ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
- 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
- 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
- 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
- 📉 JSE down over 4%
About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:
- 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
- 📈 Risks inflation spikes
- 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
- 🌍 Raises global recession concerns
Possible Scenarios:
- Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80
- Prolonged tension → Oil $90+
- Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk
South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.
📌 Key message: Don’t panic. Stay long-term focused.
🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊
February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:
- 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
- 📈 Local sales up 11%
- 📉 Exports down 28%
- 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%
Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.
Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.
🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈
Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.
SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity?
Basket explored:
- Salesforce
- Adobe
- Intuit
- ServiceNow
- Workday
- Datadog
Preferred picks:
✅ Salesforce
✅ Adobe
✅ Intuit
AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week’s pricing).
Key insight:
Replacing enterprise software isn’t about code — it’s about retraining millions of users.
🎯 Final Thoughts
Markets are volatile.
War introduces uncertainty.
Oil is the key risk variable.
But:
- 🧠 Stay rational
- ⏳ Stay long term
- 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
- 🚫 Don’t panic
If you’ve got time on your side — don’t stress your portfolio.
See you next week 👋
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