Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Release Date: 03/03/2026
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding customers, but it hasn't started healing. Simon Brown goes deep on the retailer's 20-week trading update, where group turnover rose 2.7% while core Pick n Pay SA supermarkets went backwards. He unpacks the so-called negative stub — a R14 billion market cap against an R18.8 billion stake in Boxer plus cash — and explains why capital gains tax makes those "free" 1,538 stores a lot less free. He also looks at the Section 189A labour consultation covering 22,000 employees, the base rates on retail turnarounds globally, and why Shoprite's ability to absorb...
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Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not. Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure. Also covered: US earnings season running at 47%...
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Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks...
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Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap. In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA...
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Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started. He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels. He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the...
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Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years. This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice. He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert. Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn...
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Europe's Biggest Tech IPO: Bending Spoons
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
This week's WorldWideMarkets is a tour of cheap stocks that each come with a question mark. Simon Brown looks at Microsoft, where a forward PE of around 20 against a mean of 33 makes it look inexpensive — except free cash flow has slipped back to 2021 levels as AI and data-centre capex ramps. He revisits Afrimat, a high-quality cyclical now trading near 10-year lows, and digs into Bending Spoons, the Italian roll-up of legacy tech brands like Evernote, WeTransfer and AOL heading to the NASDAQ under code BSP. He also covers Naspers' latest results, the discount embedded in the...
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MercadoLibre is Amazon with a bank and it's cheapest in years
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share. This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with...
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Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February?
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table. This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list. Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA...
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Stocks for your Soccer World Cup
WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win? Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from...
info_outline⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰
This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.
Key Changes:
- 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
- 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
- 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
- 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
- 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
- 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
- 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m
After years of “tax by stealth,” this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.
💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free?
Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:
- ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
- 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.
Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn’t deployed it yet 👀
💻 Dell Delivers 🚀
Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.
- Entry around $118
- Now trading near $153
- AI infrastructure demand driving upside
- Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis
US markets don’t play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.
🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥
The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.
Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.
Key Developments:
- ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
- 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
- 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
- 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
- 📉 JSE down over 4%
About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:
- 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
- 📈 Risks inflation spikes
- 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
- 🌍 Raises global recession concerns
Possible Scenarios:
- Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80
- Prolonged tension → Oil $90+
- Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk
South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.
📌 Key message: Don’t panic. Stay long-term focused.
🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊
February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:
- 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
- 📈 Local sales up 11%
- 📉 Exports down 28%
- 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%
Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.
Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.
🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈
Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.
SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity?
Basket explored:
- Salesforce
- Adobe
- Intuit
- ServiceNow
- Workday
- Datadog
Preferred picks:
✅ Salesforce
✅ Adobe
✅ Intuit
AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week’s pricing).
Key insight:
Replacing enterprise software isn’t about code — it’s about retraining millions of users.
🎯 Final Thoughts
Markets are volatile.
War introduces uncertainty.
Oil is the key risk variable.
But:
- 🧠 Stay rational
- ⏳ Stay long term
- 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
- 🚫 Don’t panic
If you’ve got time on your side — don’t stress your portfolio.
See you next week 👋
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