WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering global and local SA markets, economics, commodities and more.

Is there value in Shoprite at all-time highs? 09/15/2026

Oil, elections, rates and gold: the four things that matter 09/02/2026

Ranking JSE gold miners as the yellow metal is on the move 08/25/2026

Cheap for a Reason: ABSA versus Nedbank. Which to buy? 08/18/2026

Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing? 08/11/2026

Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point? 08/04/2026

Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls 07/28/2026

Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity? 07/21/2026

Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis 07/14/2026

Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins 07/07/2026

Europe's Biggest Tech IPO: Bending Spoons 06/30/2026

MercadoLibre is Amazon with a bank and it's cheapest in years 06/23/2026

Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February? 06/17/2026

Stocks for your Soccer World Cup 06/09/2026

The US consumer has no savings left, should we worry? 06/02/2026

The SpaceX IPO Valuation Reality Check | The Pope on AI 05/26/2026

Bond Yields Are Screaming | Why Isn't Anyone Calling It a Crisis? 05/19/2026

Boxer's Blinder & The Pick & Pay Valuation That Makes No Sense 05/12/2026

Hyperscaler Results, Berkshire's Cash Pile and Fuel Pain 05/05/2026

Tim Cook Out, Tariff Refunds In, Markets Back At Highs 04/21/2026

The Hormuz "Blockade" Has Fine Print | So Does the SA Fuel Crisis 04/14/2026

SA Retail Stocks: Where the Value Is Right Now 04/07/2026

Six Space Stocks Reviewed, Which Ones Are Worth It? 03/31/2026

Tariffs are Back with no Ceiling and Gold at $4,000 03/24/2026

War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline 03/17/2026

War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can. 🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally. 📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move. 🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk. 🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. : transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year. 🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170. 📊 Results Roundup AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model Absa — not bad Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1 💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now. 🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear. 🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March. 🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality. /episode/index/show/justonelap/id/40510580

As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone 03/10/2026

As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone 🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669 📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & 🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain. Simon’s strategy right now? 🧘 Do nothing. Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold. 🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120 Oil has been incredibly volatile. 📊 Recent moves Early January: ~$60 Monday spike: ~$120 Tuesday: briefly below $90 Current level: ~$91 That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date. The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. 🚢 Shipping traffic Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day Last Wednesday: 0 barrels Monday: ~20% of normal Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile. ⛽ What This Means for South Africa Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices. 💸 Earlier estimates suggested: Petrol: +R5.40 Diesel: +R10 After oil pulled back slightly: Petrol increase may be ~R3 Diesel ~R5 Still extremely painful for the economy. 📈 Inflation & Interest Rates Oil shocks ripple through inflation. 📊 Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation. With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean: ➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again. 🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table Upcoming meetings: 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March Previously expected: rate cuts. Now? ❌ Cuts unlikely Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs. ⚔️ The War Question Markets are asking one thing: How long does this conflict last? Current signals: Iran says it won’t capitulate US and Israel still active UAE attacks have slowed One possible constraint: missile inventories. Iran’s cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems. At some point, stocks run out. 🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped. 📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels Possible release: ➡️ 300–400 million barrels This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions. That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired. 📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios Best Case ✔ Conflict ends within weeks ✔ Strategic reserves released ✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s Worst Case 🔥 War escalates 🔥 Shipping disruptions persist 🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200 At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy. 🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call Standard Bank has launched a new structured product. 📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call Key features: 💰 Return: 14% per year 📅 Term: Up to 5 years 🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive 💵 Currency: Rand 📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity 📥 Minimum investment: R25,000 🧠 Index Constituents The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index. Top holdings include: Nvidia Palantir Snowflake AMD Broadcom SoundHound AI Kingsoft Cloud BigBear.ai DataVault Zenitech Total: 30 companies in the index. 🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward South Africa released Q4 GDP. 📊 Q4 2025: +0.4% Full-year growth: 2024: 0.5% 2025: 1.1% Not amazing, but improving. Forecast for 2026: 📈 1.6% – 1.8% If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person. 🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…) The media industry continues consolidating. Deal overview: 💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery 📦 Price: ~$100 billion Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away. 💵 Result: Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee Its stock jumped ~15% 🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal New twist: Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition. For South African investors: Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount. Yes… it’s complicated. 🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea The concerns: 📉 Traditional media is declining 🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content 🏛️ Politics may influence the deal Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster. Simon’s take: This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price. 🕒 Market Hours Change The US switched to daylight savings. New trading times for South Africa: 📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30) ✈️ Personal Note Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew’s 18th birthday. Time flies. ✔ Key Takeaway Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices. Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious. /episode/index/show/justonelap/id/40381145

Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative 03/03/2026

Budget Boost, Oil Shock | SA's Two-Speed Week that Changed the Narrative ⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰 This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it. Key Changes: 📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000 🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m 💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%) 🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m 🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k 🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000 🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m After years of “tax by stealth,” this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses. 💡 Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests: ✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms. 📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points. Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn’t deployed it yet 👀 💻 Dell Delivers 🚀 Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%. Entry around $118 Now trading near $153 AI infrastructure demand driving upside Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis US markets don’t play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively. 🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥 The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically. Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center. Key Developments: ⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz 🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity 🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+ 💸 Rand weakened to 16.36 📉 JSE down over 4% About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption: 🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher 📈 Risks inflation spikes 🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March) 🌍 Raises global recession concerns Possible Scenarios: Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80 Prolonged tension → Oil $90+ Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk. 📌 Key message: Don’t panic. Stay long-term focused. 🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊 February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again: 🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year) 📈 Local sales up 11% 📉 Exports down 28% 📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10% Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share. Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient. 🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈 Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research. SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity? Basket explored: Salesforce Adobe Intuit ServiceNow Workday Datadog Preferred picks: ✅ Salesforce ✅ Adobe ✅ Intuit AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week’s pricing). Key insight: Replacing enterprise software isn’t about code — it’s about retraining millions of users. 🎯 Final Thoughts Markets are volatile. War introduces uncertainty. Oil is the key risk variable. But: 🧠 Stay rational ⏳ Stay long term 💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully 🚫 Don’t panic If you’ve got time on your side — don’t stress your portfolio. See you next week 👋 /episode/index/show/justonelap/id/40295380

Budget panel 2026 with Deputy Minister & Christo Wiese 02/26/2026

Trumps Tariffs Trashed, Now What? | Budget 2026 02/24/2026

Trumps Tariffs Trashed, Now What? | Budget 2026 🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 667 📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft ⚡ Eskom: 280 Days Without Load Shedding South Africa has now reached 280 days without load shedding. Standard Bank's electricity tracker report highlights that the last significant outages were 26 hours across April and May 2025, taking the effective streak back to 26 March 2024. After 17 years of load shedding since 2008, the energy availability factor and other key metrics are looking dramatically better. Credit goes to Eskom's operational improvements, industrial-scale solar and wind investment, and households with rooftop solar installations. 🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Chaos: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes Next The ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat. The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement. Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July. Other legal avenues Trump could pursue: Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style. Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges. The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid. 📢 Upcoming Event: Protecting Your Portfolio & Navigating Scams 🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities. 👉 More info and booking at **JustOneLap.com/events** 💻 SaaS Stocks Under Pressure: Is Vibe Coding Really the Threat? Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process. Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence. IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week. 💰 Budget 2026 Preview What to expect: Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered). Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away. Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately. Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax. Interest exemptions: No changes expected. Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing." Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want. 📊 Commodities Check-In Palladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters. Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture. Gold Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals. Brent Crude Oil Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend. 💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand." 🎙️ Next week: Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️ /episode/index/show/justonelap/id/40214170

Can AI Value Stocks? Local | Yields at decade Lows 02/17/2026

Can AI Value Stocks? Local | Yields at decade Lows Worldwide Markets - Episode 666 📊 18 February 2025 🇿🇦 South African Economic Indicators Unemployment hits 5-year low - but still a tragic 31.4% The Achilles heel: Need GDP growth to break below 20% 10-year bond yields at decade lows - 7.97% (down from 11% during load shedding) Government saving on new bond issuances, though impact is modest Potential budget windfall from precious metals next week ZA 10-year yield | weekly 🤖 AI Valuations: Testing Anthropic's Opus 4.6 Can AI do DCF valuations? Testing on Dell (NYSE: DELL) Opus 4.6 created detailed discounted cash flow model in ~10 minutes 148 formulas, zero errors (after self-correction) Fair value estimate: $172 vs current ~$115 (significant upside potential) ⚠️ Important caveats: Sensitivity assumptions critical (WACC, terminal growth, risk-free rate) DCF is just ONE valuation methodology Rate limiting kicks in with heavy usage ($20/month tier) US stocks work better than local stocks currently 💼 US Economy Update Strong fundamentals emerging: $600B+ capex spend by hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) Better-than-expected January CPI Unemployment at 4.3% (jobs report revised down 1M though) GDP tracking closer to 3% than 1-1.5% Two rate cuts still on the table for 2025 Tech infrastructure spending providing economic underpin 🚚 The Karaoke Company Logistics Disruption (?) Algorhythm stock chaos: Up 222% Friday, another 15% pre-market Tuesday From karaoke company to AI logistics software ("SemiCab") in 6 months Entire logistics sector sold off on the news Reality check needed: Santova and others already doing this with Oscar software Market overreaction? Small operators still use fax machines Don't panic-short established players like Santova 📅 Upcoming Events Power Hour Thursday 5:30pm - (Standard Bank Rosebank or webcast) updated with FNB, 10X, 1nnvest, Satrix funds Budget next Wednesday - Simon will be in Cape Town Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and "Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚 /episode/index/show/justonelap/id/40135770

WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown

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