WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering global and local SA markets, economics, commodities and more.
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Naspers & Prosus: down 50% in a year; half price, or half the story?
10/13/2026
Naspers & Prosus: down 50% in a year; half price, or half the story?
Naspers and Prosus have roughly halved over the past year. Simon Brown unpacks why: three-quarters of the fall is Tencent, the rest is a stronger rand, while the holdco discount has barely budged at around 40%. At R664 Prosus offers about R1,135 of value, but billions in buybacks haven't closed the gap, and Tencent's capex surge has spooked the market. Topics: Top 40 chart of the week, actively managed ETFs at the Standard Bank Power Hour, the new JustOneLap ETF dividends page, Naspers and Prosus discount maths, the buyback loop, Tencent capex and AI, Just Eat Takeaway and iFood, bull and bear cases, and the November results to watch. WorldWideMarkets is part of .
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Record car sales, falling motor stocks: Motus, CMH, WeBuyCars and Zeda
10/06/2026
Record car sales, falling motor stocks: Motus, CMH, WeBuyCars and Zeda
South Africa sold 61,645 new cars in September, the most in almost 20 years, yet the listed motor stocks are falling. Simon Brown explains why: cheap, well-specced Chinese cars are driving the volume while crushing pricing power across new cars, used cars and rental fleets. He digs into the naamsa numbers, what flatters the headline, and why the market is pricing a cyclical peak, then ranks the six JSE motor stocks. Topics: US unemployment chart of the week, actively managed ETFs Power Hour, naamsa September sales, rental fleets and demos, Chinese brands, used car deflation, WeBuyCars, Zeda, Motus, CMH*, Super Group, Metair, hybrids and EVs. WorldWideMarkets is part of , powered by Standard Bank and Shyft.
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Two Education Stocks. Both Expensive. Which is the Smart One to Own?
09/29/2026
Two Education Stocks. Both Expensive. Which is the Smart One to Own?
Curro has delisted, leaving ADvTECH and Stadio as the only listed education stocks on the JSE, and both screen as expensive. Simon Brown compares their valuations, looks at the structural shortage of school and university seats in South Africa, and weighs the pending university-status catalyst to find the smart bet. He also covers the MPC's rate hike and a global bond yield sell-off pushing the SA ten-year back towards 9%. Topics: MPC rate hike, global bond yields, Stadio index inclusion, ADvTECH vs Stadio valuations, private schooling in South Africa, the university seat shortage, UNISA, university status, and the investment verdict. Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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PGMs: the white metal, the dynamics, and the miners
09/22/2026
PGMs: the white metal, the dynamics, and the miners
Platinum smashed its 2008 record in January, then fell almost 50%. Simon Brown works through what actually happened to the platinum group metals and why the JSE-listed miners are still generating enormous cash at the lower price. A 1.5 million ounce deficit became a 265,000 ounce surplus in a year, almost entirely because investment demand and Chinese jewellery buying walked away above 3,000 dollars. Electric vehicles were never the real threat. The growth story nobody is pricing is the AI build-out, with ruthenium up 151 percent and iridium up 30 percent on data centre and hard drive demand. Then the five miners side by side: Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater and Tharisa, and the 1 December deadline on the Northam approach. Topics: platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, PGM supply and demand, AI demand, Valterra, Northam, Implats, Sibanye-Stillwater, Tharisa, FOMC, SARB, the rand. Worldwide Markets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Is there value in Shoprite at all-time highs?
09/15/2026
Is there value in Shoprite at all-time highs?
Shoprite is trading at all-time highs and has still de-rated 23% in two years. Simon Brown works through the FY26 numbers — 7% revenue growth, a 6% trading margin, HEPS up 12.2% and internal selling price inflation of just 0.8% against national food inflation of 3.9% — and asks whether a business generating a 19.8% return on invested capital against an 11.5% cost of capital is still offering value at 314c. Sixty60 gets the closest look: R25.5bn of sales, 11.1% of South African supermarket sales, and a super app strategy reaching into coffee, cellular, pets, pharmacy and financial services. Before that, the US 10-year above 5%, a Fed credibility problem ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, and a fuel under-recovery large enough to put a local hike back on the table. Topics: FOMC, US 10-year yields, SA MPC, fuel price, inflation, Shoprite, Sixty60, Checkers, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Woolworths, Nedbank, Absa, Clicks, Naspers. Worldwide Markets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Oil, elections, rates and gold: the four things that matter
09/02/2026
Oil, elections, rates and gold: the four things that matter
This week WorldWideMarkets runs Simon Brown's keynote from a corporate event: four slides on the four issues facing global markets right now, with AI deliberately left off the list. The world lost roughly 20% of its oil supply when the Strait of Hormuz closed, and Brent still only reached $120 — Simon explains why the oil market had far more slack than anyone realised, and why $80 rather than $60 is the level to plan around. He then covers the rand at R15.92, the two elections falling on 3 and 4 November, and the story he thinks matters most: $40 trillion of US government debt now costing $1.1 trillion a year to service, and a bond market that no finance minister can push around. Finally, why a lifelong gold sceptic now holds gold. Topics: Brent crude, Strait of Hormuz, China's strategic reserves, Taiwan, USD/ZAR, SA local government elections, US midterms, G7 bond yields, US debt, AngloGold Ashanti, gold ETFs. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Newsletter https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/
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Ranking JSE gold miners as the yellow metal is on the move
08/25/2026
Ranking JSE gold miners as the yellow metal is on the move
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is selling short-dated paper and buying long in an attempt to force the 10 and 30-year yields lower. Simon Brown explains why fighting a market rarely ends well, and what that trade has already done to gold and the rand. With gold back at $4,630 and the rand at R16, he then works through all five JSE-listed gold miners — Pan African, DRDGOLD, Harmony, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti — comparing production, all-in sustaining costs, balance sheets and analyst price targets, before ranking them and setting out the specific red flag attached to each. He closes with two JSE stocks moving the wrong way: Naspers and Clicks. Topics: US Treasury yields, gold price, rand gold price, JSE gold miners, all-in sustaining costs, hedging and collars, Ghana mining leases, Naspers, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Sign up for our newsletter https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/
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Cheap for a Reason: ABSA versus Nedbank. Which to buy?
08/18/2026
Cheap for a Reason: ABSA versus Nedbank. Which to buy?
Absa and Nedbank are the two cheap banks on the JSE, both trading near 1.2 times tangible book while Standard Bank and FirstRand sit close to two. Simon Brown puts them side by side after both reported and finds numbers so similar that valuation stops being the question: the same fifteen percent return on equity, the same credit loss ratio near zero point nine percent, the same capital. What separates them is that Nedbank has committed to seventeen percent return on equity by 2028 and Absa has not. He also covers the expiry of the sixty-day Iran accord with Brent above ninety dollars, long bond yields back at 2008 levels, a major upgrade to the JustOneLap ETF database, and stocks on the move. Topics: Absa results, Nedbank results, return on equity, cost to income, bank valuations, Iran and oil, the rand, global bond yields, sovereign debt, ETF database, Mr Price, Shoprite, Clicks, Woolworths. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. Sign up for our weekly newsletter ~ https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/
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Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing?
08/11/2026
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding. But has it started healing?
Pick n Pay has stopped bleeding customers, but it hasn't started healing. Simon Brown goes deep on the retailer's 20-week trading update, where group turnover rose 2.7% while core Pick n Pay SA supermarkets went backwards. He unpacks the so-called negative stub — a R14 billion market cap against an R18.8 billion stake in Boxer plus cash — and explains why capital gains tax makes those "free" 1,538 stores a lot less free. He also looks at the Section 189A labour consultation covering 22,000 employees, the base rates on retail turnarounds globally, and why Shoprite's ability to absorb inflation and grow Sixty60 gives it weapons Pick n Pay cannot afford. His call: stay in Shoprite. Topics include Pick n Pay, Boxer, Shoprite, Checkers Sixty60, Woolworths, retail turnarounds, Section 189A, and the OST to Shyft migration. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com. 📅 Events: justonelap.com/events 📧 Newsletter: https://just-one-lap-newsletter.beehiiv.com/
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Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point?
08/04/2026
Mr Price and Clicks. End of an Era, or an Entry Point?
Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not. Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure. Also covered: US earnings season running at 47% growth, why the South African consumer squeeze is worst at the top end, and Saudi Aramco's warning that rebuilding oil inventories could take 18 months. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls
07/28/2026
Finding quality JSE dividends | Alphabet profits booms, stock falls
Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks how any investor values Tesla when the CEO has promised self-driving cars every year for a decade. Topics: Alphabet results, AI capex, circular AI revenue, Vodacom dividend policy, JSE dividend yields, income ETFs, Tesla valuation, Elon Musk, Bid Corp, Clicks, Absa. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity?
07/21/2026
Finding an edge in prediction markets | Netflix, market hate is an opportunity?
Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap. In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA inflation with a Bayesian model 13:30 Upcoming events 14:25 Oil, Iran & Canada tariffs 16:45 Netflix: cheap for the first time in years 19:50 Stocks on the move 🌐 More at JustOneLap.com
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Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis
07/14/2026
Purple Group goes all-in on AI | US 10-year at 4.63% is a crisis
A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started. He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels. He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the start of a US earnings season priced for 23–24% EPS growth. Topics: SpaceX, OpenAI, Apple, Purple Group, Telescope AI, Brent oil, De Beers, Sappi, Mpact, US Treasuries, bank earnings. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins
07/07/2026
Defence Stocks and the Replacement Trade | Why Lockheed Martin Wins
Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years. This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice. He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert. Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn Nasdaq listing and the memory trade, and the Q2 review of the Equity Coverage AI project — 26 names, 22 buys and one sell. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Europe's Biggest Tech IPO: Bending Spoons
06/30/2026
Europe's Biggest Tech IPO: Bending Spoons
This week's WorldWideMarkets is a tour of cheap stocks that each come with a question mark. Simon Brown looks at Microsoft, where a forward PE of around 20 against a mean of 33 makes it look inexpensive — except free cash flow has slipped back to 2021 levels as AI and data-centre capex ramps. He revisits Afrimat, a high-quality cyclical now trading near 10-year lows, and digs into Bending Spoons, the Italian roll-up of legacy tech brands like Evernote, WeTransfer and AOL heading to the NASDAQ under code BSP. He also covers Naspers' latest results, the discount embedded in the Naspers-Prosus-Tencent chain, and why petrol gets a sizeable cut as Brent drops into the low 70s. Topics: Microsoft, Afrimat, Brent oil, Bending Spoons IPO, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, Takealot. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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MercadoLibre is Amazon with a bank and it's cheapest in years
06/23/2026
MercadoLibre is Amazon with a bank and it's cheapest in years
MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share. This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with Jerome Powell no longer chair, and why Brent crude has fallen back to pre-conflict levels despite a major supply scare. Topics: MercadoLibre, MELI, Amazon, SpaceX, Alan Greenspan, FOMC, SA inflation, Brent oil, offshore income. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February?
06/17/2026
Peace in Our Time | Are We Just Going Back to February?
A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table. This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list. Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA inflation and fuel prices, FOMC, the big tech IPO, Clicks, Discovery, Bidcorp, Outsurance, Growthpoint, MTN and Mondi. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Stocks for your Soccer World Cup
06/09/2026
Stocks for your Soccer World Cup
The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win? Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from SABC Plus. Plus: three mega IPOs landing at once (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) and the $160bn funding crunch behind Micron's 16% drop, and a bleak read on the PGM miners. Topics: World Cup stocks, Adidas, Nike, Canal+, Sun International, Super Group, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, PGMs. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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The US consumer has no savings left, should we worry?
06/02/2026
The US consumer has no savings left, should we worry?
Simon Brown unpacks a US personal savings rate of just 2.6% — one of the lowest on record — and why it matters more as a fragility gauge than a crash signal. He covers the collapsed Iran deal and its effect on oil and South African fuel prices, the SARB's prime rate hike to 10.5% and why he thinks the MPC has it wrong, and the near-10% surge in Naspers and Prosus on news that WeChat is putting AI at the centre of its app. Plus SPAR's brutal trading update, the year-to-date scoreboard with South Korea up 123%, Afrimat's Nersa win, Dell's near four-bagger, and why Simon keeps buying Clicks at two-year lows. Topics: US savings rate, Iran and oil, SARB rates, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, SPAR, food retail, South Korea, Dell, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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The SpaceX IPO Valuation Reality Check | The Pope on AI
05/26/2026
The SpaceX IPO Valuation Reality Check | The Pope on AI
SpaceX comes to market on 12 June at a $1.75 trillion valuation — 94 times sales, where Amazon trades at four. Simon walks through where to actually buy it (Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Fidelity), why xAI is a rounding error in the AI race, and why Tesla is likely to be rolled into SpaceX within two to three years. Plus the Dow Jones turns 130, Moody's lifts South Africa's outlook from stable to positive, Balwin delists at below NAV with Calgro M3* potentially next, and stocks on the move including Shoprite*, AB InBev, Impala Platinum, and Gold Fields. Topics: SpaceX IPO, Dow Jones, Moody's, Balwin delisting, Calgro M3, Canal Plus, Pope Leo XIV on AI, oil, Shoprite, AB InBev, Implats, Gold Fields, Anglo Gold Ashanti. WorldWideMarkets is part of .
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Bond Yields Are Screaming | Why Isn't Anyone Calling It a Crisis?
05/19/2026
Bond Yields Are Screaming | Why Isn't Anyone Calling It a Crisis?
Global bond yields are spiking to multi-decade highs across the US, UK and Japan, and Simon Brown argues this looks a lot like the emerging market debt crises markets usually call doom and gloom. He unpacks the Pick n Pay sell-down of Boxer shares, the Eastern Cape floods threatening the citrus crop, and the absurd Cerebras IPO trading at 150 times sales. Plus an update on JustOneLap's institutional-grade research project, results from Calgro M3, WeBuyCars and Astral, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, and three stocks on the move: British American Tobacco, BHP Group and Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Boxer's Blinder & The Pick & Pay Valuation That Makes No Sense
05/12/2026
Boxer's Blinder & The Pick & Pay Valuation That Makes No Sense
Boxer just posted ShopRite-level operating margins — so why is Pick & Pay, which owns 65% of it, trading at an implied negative enterprise value? Simon Brown unpacks the R10bn valuation paradox and whether it's a genuine opportunity. He also walks through his new AI-powered research workflow, using Claude and ChatGPT to produce and fact-check full initiating coverage reports on Balwin Properties and Raubex. Plus: gold miners Goldfields and AngloGold Ashanti on costs, Meta at its cheapest forward PE since 2022, and Open Router token data that shows xAI running a distant fourth behind Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Hyperscaler Results, Berkshire's Cash Pile and Fuel Pain
05/05/2026
Hyperscaler Results, Berkshire's Cash Pile and Fuel Pain
Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion. Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure. Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs. The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5. Closer to home, the fuel price hike lands tomorrow with Brent back at $114, putting fragile consumer stocks under pressure. Plus an update on using AI for institutional-grade research and the upcoming JustOneLap events. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Tim Cook Out, Tariff Refunds In, Markets Back At Highs
04/21/2026
Tim Cook Out, Tariff Refunds In, Markets Back At Highs
US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back. Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers. Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went negative. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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The Hormuz "Blockade" Has Fine Print | So Does the SA Fuel Crisis
04/14/2026
The Hormuz "Blockade" Has Fine Print | So Does the SA Fuel Crisis
US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure. Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position. FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced reality of the Straits of Hormuz "blockade" — it has T's and C's. Plus a long-overdue Bitcoin check-in. WorldWideMarkets is part of .
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SA Retail Stocks: Where the Value Is Right Now
04/07/2026
SA Retail Stocks: Where the Value Is Right Now
South African consumer stocks have been hammered. In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken. He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation. Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why. Topics covered: JSE retail sector, food retailers, clothing retailers, Iran oil risk, consumer inflation, SA discretionary spending. WorldWideMarkets is part of .
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Six Space Stocks Reviewed, Which Ones Are Worth It?
03/31/2026
Six Space Stocks Reviewed, Which Ones Are Worth It?
Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype collapse, and explains why CrowdStrike's CEO selling stock is not worth losing sleep over. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.
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Tariffs are Back with no Ceiling and Gold at $4,000
03/24/2026
Tariffs are Back with no Ceiling and Gold at $4,000
WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them. Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on. Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling. Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners. Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column. WorldWideMarkets is part of .
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War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline
03/17/2026
War, Fuel & Fertilizer: The Inflation Pipeline
Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and ⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can. 🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally. 📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move. 🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk. 🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. : transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year. 🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170. 📊 Results Roundup AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model Absa — not bad Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1 💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now. 🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear. 🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March. 🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.
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As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone
03/10/2026
As Uncertainty Rules, Rate Cuts are Gone
🌍 World Wide Markets – Episode 669 📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & 🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain. Simon’s strategy right now? 🧘 Do nothing. Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold. 🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120 Oil has been incredibly volatile. 📊 Recent moves Early January: ~$60 Monday spike: ~$120 Tuesday: briefly below $90 Current level: ~$91 That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date. The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. 🚢 Shipping traffic Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day Last Wednesday: 0 barrels Monday: ~20% of normal Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile. ⛽ What This Means for South Africa Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices. 💸 Earlier estimates suggested: Petrol: +R5.40 Diesel: +R10 After oil pulled back slightly: Petrol increase may be ~R3 Diesel ~R5 Still extremely painful for the economy. 📈 Inflation & Interest Rates Oil shocks ripple through inflation. 📊 Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation. With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean: ➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again. 🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table Upcoming meetings: 🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March 🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March Previously expected: rate cuts. Now? ❌ Cuts unlikely Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs. ⚔️ The War Question Markets are asking one thing: How long does this conflict last? Current signals: Iran says it won’t capitulate US and Israel still active UAE attacks have slowed One possible constraint: missile inventories. Iran’s cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems. At some point, stocks run out. 🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped. 📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels Possible release: ➡️ 300–400 million barrels This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions. That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired. 📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios Best Case ✔ Conflict ends within weeks ✔ Strategic reserves released ✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s Worst Case 🔥 War escalates 🔥 Shipping disruptions persist 🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200 At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy. 🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call Standard Bank has launched a new structured product. 📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call Key features: 💰 Return: 14% per year 📅 Term: Up to 5 years 🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive 💵 Currency: Rand 📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity 📥 Minimum investment: R25,000 🧠 Index Constituents The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index. Top holdings include: Nvidia Palantir Snowflake AMD Broadcom SoundHound AI Kingsoft Cloud BigBear.ai DataVault Zenitech Total: 30 companies in the index. 🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward South Africa released Q4 GDP. 📊 Q4 2025: +0.4% Full-year growth: 2024: 0.5% 2025: 1.1% Not amazing, but improving. Forecast for 2026: 📈 1.6% – 1.8% If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person. 🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…) The media industry continues consolidating. Deal overview: 💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery 📦 Price: ~$100 billion Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away. 💵 Result: Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee Its stock jumped ~15% 🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal New twist: Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition. For South African investors: Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount. Yes… it’s complicated. 🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea The concerns: 📉 Traditional media is declining 🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content 🏛️ Politics may influence the deal Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster. Simon’s take: This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price. 🕒 Market Hours Change The US switched to daylight savings. New trading times for South Africa: 📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30) ✈️ Personal Note Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew’s 18th birthday. Time flies. ✔ Key Takeaway Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices. Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.
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