WorldWide Markets with Simon Brown
Weekly podcast hosted by Simon Brown covering global and local SA markets, economics, commodities and more.
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Buffett Buys UnitedHealth, should you? | The Google Listing with a Twist Turns 21
08/19/2025
Buffett Buys UnitedHealth, should you? | The Google Listing with a Twist Turns 21
🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know: 📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow? Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH). Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️. On paper, valuation looks attractive: Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average). Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9. Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys. ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.” 🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure. Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment). ETFs on JSE: . Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds. Note: ✅. 🏦 Standard Bank Results ROE: 19.1% – huge number. Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1). Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰. Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average). Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍. Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.” Standard Bank | Weekly 📱 MTN Results Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬. Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉. Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%). Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued. Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles. Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.” 🛢️ Sasol Update Stock bounced from R50 → R100. Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉. Operations improving, second-half expected stronger. Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.” 🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂 IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions. Raised $1.66bn at $85/share. Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯. Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀. Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead. Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.” 💡 Key Takeaways Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝. Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure. Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable. Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds. 👉 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and – the app that gives you the cheapest forex rates anytime, anywhere 🌍📱.
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Share Buy Backs; the Good & the Ugly | Market Loving the Sasol Update
08/12/2025
Share Buy Backs; the Good & the Ugly | Market Loving the Sasol Update
🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a **September rate cut** from the Fed 🏦. ⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀). 💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏. Apple out standing shares 🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range? Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025 🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦. 🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖. 📊 Tool – ! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍. Powered by Standard Bank & – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.
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SARB & Treasury Fight Over Inflation | Which MPs Hold Crypto?
08/05/2025
SARB & Treasury Fight Over Inflation | Which MPs Hold Crypto?
🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August 💼 Host: Simon Brown 🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing. 🔮 Market Highlights 📈 Purple Group* rocks 🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows. 🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion. 💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term. 🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯 🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%. ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns. 💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management. 🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs. 🚗 Vehicle sales boom 📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019! 🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10. 💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds. 📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH. 🪙 Gold miners printing money ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*: 🚜 Production +21% 💰 Free cash flow +149% 📉 Net debt down 92% 💵 80c dividend 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972! ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings. 🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸 🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data. ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility. 🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats. 🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture 🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday. 📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero. 👨🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit. 🧠 Random Insights 🪙 Crypto in Parliament? 🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto. 🤷♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention.
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SARB has not added to gold reserves in two decades | Which JSE stocks will be hit by tariffs?
07/29/2025
SARB has not added to gold reserves in two decades | Which JSE stocks will be hit by tariffs?
🔺 Tariffs Incoming 🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday. 🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected. 📉 MPC Policy Misfire? 💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%. 📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes. 📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%. SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025 🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years? 📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added. 📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years. 🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers. 📈 Structured Product Spotlight 💼 New Standard Bank product: ✔️ 100% capital guarantee ✔️ 1.8x upside gearing ✔️ MSCI World Index exposure 📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs 💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept. 🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market 🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed 💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals ⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry? 💊 Big Pharma Blunder 🤦♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee 📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops. 🔍 Alphabet Results 💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention 💰 $95bn cash, low debt ⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming 📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity? 📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await… 🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown 💳 Powered by Standard Bank & – the global money app for smart travellers & investors
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Is a Lower Inflation target a Bad Idea? Is Afrimat Offering Value?
07/22/2025
Is a Lower Inflation target a Bad Idea? Is Afrimat Offering Value?
🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸 📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea? • SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊 • Risks of higher interest rates 😬 • Real rates already sky-high 🚀 💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains • Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉 • MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐 • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag 🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies • Buys US recycling business ♻️ • Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧 • Expands beyond PGMs and gold 🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot • Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊 • But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥 🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC • Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰 • Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍 • Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓ 🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45? • Price on long-term support line 📉🧱 • Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿 • Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪 • Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍 🧪 New ETF Database (Beta) • Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊 • Explore at 🧱📂 • Feedback welcome! 📜 SA Budget Drama • Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠 • Education budget almost derailed ❗
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What's with Bitcoin Treasury Companies? | Ouch US CPI and Chinese Home Prices
07/15/2025
What's with Bitcoin Treasury Companies? | Ouch US CPI and Chinese Home Prices
🎙 This Week in Markets: US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July. 🏘 China Housing Trouble: 3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt. Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025 🚀 Elon Watch: Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve. 🔩 PGMs Shine: Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow. 💻 Nvidia Milestone: First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions. 📦 Copper Tariffs: Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not. 📉 Gold & Oil: Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls. ₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic. 📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC. 🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix. 🏛 Crypto Legislation: US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸 💸 ZAR & Tariffs: Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets. 🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour: 📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting 📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore) 🧭 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shift, the global money app 💳 🌍 Travel | 💱 Forex | 🛒 Spend | 📈 Invest — All in your hand. 🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps! 📢 Back next week with more market insights.
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Trump’s Big (and Messy) Plan to Save America and Reduce the Deficit and Debt
07/08/2025
Trump’s Big (and Messy) Plan to Save America and Reduce the Deficit and Debt
Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos? 🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭 🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬 🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍 🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥 🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷♂️ 🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥 🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱 🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️ 🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙 🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌ 🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺 💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.
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Market Surprises, Trump’s Tariffs & Commodities Soaring | 2025 Year-to-date returns reviewed
07/01/2025
Market Surprises, Trump’s Tariffs & Commodities Soaring | 2025 Year-to-date returns reviewed
The Year So Far 📈 Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends. The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs. Trump’s Second Term 🏛️ Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty. A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead. Currency Moves 💱 The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date. Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years! Commodities on Fire 🔥 Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging Equities: Winners & Losers 📊 Top Performers: Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀 Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics British American Tobacco at record rand highs Strugglers: Aspen -27% 🩺 Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5% Global Markets Snapshot 🌐 European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%) Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq Key Lessons 🎓 Volatility is a feature, not a bug. When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles. Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan. The Dollar Story 💵 Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months. Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets. The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows. 🗓️ Upcoming Event Power Hour – 21 July (Monday) Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown 🔗 📈 More Resources Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday: Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap
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EAC, the only fee that matters | Gold or PGMs?
06/25/2025
EAC, the only fee that matters | Gold or PGMs?
💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC) Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch. Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers. 📊 Understand the difference: TER (Total Expense Ratio) TIC (Total Investment Cost) EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees) 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC. 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%. 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible. 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag. ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees! 🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market. 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday. That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive. 🌍 Global market awash with oil: 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly. ⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain 💱 Rand Rollercoaster 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver 🎯 R17 still very much in play 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol 🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025 Data outlook softening: 🏭 GDP ↓ 📈 Inflation ↑ 👷 Unemployment ↑ 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve ⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again? 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035 Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*… 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure 🪙 Gold: Still Glowing 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold
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Oil bad news for global economy | Tariff D-Day is 3 weeks away
06/18/2025
Oil bad news for global economy | Tariff D-Day is 3 weeks away
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Results Shows SA Consumer Improving | Renewable Energy Listing With ±9% DY
06/10/2025
Results Shows SA Consumer Improving | Renewable Energy Listing With ±9% DY
This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA. In this episode: 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break? 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding? 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms. 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit? 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner? 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors?
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The anatomy of a financial crisis, 1987 to date | What happened, what changed and what we learnt
06/04/2025
The anatomy of a financial crisis, 1987 to date | What happened, what changed and what we learnt
Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note. He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through. He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was. This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.
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Peloton Free Cash Flow | New Inflation Target for SA?
05/27/2025
Peloton Free Cash Flow | New Inflation Target for SA?
SARB inflation target 🎯 Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market’s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. 💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations. Peloton (PTON) 🚴♂️ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning. 💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1) 📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers. 📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging. Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙 📆 19 June with Standard Bank 📈 Gold had its highest ever weekly close – bullish candles and all. Rand strength 💪🇿🇦 ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88. 🌍 Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets – yet. 🔮 Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead. USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀 🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9? 🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises. 📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes. Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪 🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN. 🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP. 💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays. Sasol (SOL) ⚖️ 💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award. 📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag. 🛢 Oil remains the key driver. Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒 📉 Still losing money, but less than before. 👷 Sean Summers’ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed. 💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds. 🚧 Market says: “We don't believe it. Yet.” Nampak (NPK) 📦 ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround. 📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing. Altron (AEL) 🚗📡 📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming. 💬 Simon: “One of the few real turnaround wins.” 🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat. Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧 💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold. ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future. 🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now. PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿 🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100). 📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring. 📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion. 📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.
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US Debt Downgrade Not New News | Big Day for Sasol & Renergen
05/21/2025
US Debt Downgrade Not New News | Big Day for Sasol & Renergen
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Has Trump Shown us how Tariffs Resolve?
05/13/2025
Has Trump Shown us how Tariffs Resolve?
🎯 Tariff Talks: Where Are We Now? Simon Brown recaps the evolution of Trump-era tariffs, with recent developments around: US-China deal: effective 54% tariff on Chinese goods, 10% on US goods UK, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam likely settling around 10% Expectations for other regions like EU, Saudi Arabia, South Africa Conclusion: tariff escalation seems contained, reducing recession risks Key Insight: Markets are stabilising as the worst-case tariff scenario is dialed back. 💊 Trump vs. Big Pharma Trump targets high drug prices in the US, pushing for: 30-day deadline for pharmaceutical companies to lower prices Unclear legal basis; possible price controls debated Pharma stocks bounce back slightly after initial drop Simon’s Take: Healthcare is risky for investors due to constant regulatory pressure — he stays away. 💡 Lewis Group: Surprise Trading Update Lewis expects a 55–65% EPS increase, sparking: A ~16% stock price surge Ongoing share buybacks and high dividends (7.8% yield) Strategy: loan book expansion, carefully managing bad debts Verdict: Strong fundamentals, still looks cheap. Simon and analysts are bullish. 📈 🛒 Boxer’s Debut Results First results since Boxer listed: Modest headline earnings (new shares diluted results) 25 new superstores & 35 liquor stores planned annually Operating margins on par with Shoprite* (~5.5%) Stock trading at fair valuation (R64.77), analysts' target: R76.66 Insight: Promising growth but priced in. Shoprite still Simon’s preferred pick. 🏪 🏅 AngloGold Ashanti*: Cash Flow Soars Highlights from AngloGold’s trading update: 7x increase in free cash flow New dividend policy: $0.125 quarterly minimum + 50% of FCF 26% production increase (aided by Egypt acquisition) Concerns: strong rand + weak gold price pressure the stock Simon’s Position: Holds the stock, likes the dividends — cautious on expansion. 🪙 🏘️ Calgro M3 vs. Balwin Property sector comparison: Calgro M3*: Sub-R1m homes, shifting from gov’t subsidies to open market Balwin: Mid-to-high-end units (R1.1m–R3m+), annuity income from parks & amenities Both cautious due to election risks and past invasions Bottom Line: Simon owns Calgro, likes both for their contributions to housing. 🏡
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We can all be Buffett, Kinda | Sell in May & Go Away?
05/06/2025
We can all be Buffett, Kinda | Sell in May & Go Away?
🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel. Still remains Chairman Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65 🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices Focus on permanent capital and compounding Keep your process simple and repeatable Don’t chase hype — focus on fundamentals South Africa's Chris Seabrooke noted as a local Buffett-like investor 🌸 "Sell in May and Go Away" – Myth Busted Simon critiques the old market adage. S&P returns from May–October average 0.49%, Nov–Apr average 1.02% Transaction costs, taxes, and missed rallies make timing unreliable Verdict: It's a nursery rhyme, not an investment strategy 🛢️ Oil Falling as OPEC Hikes Production OPEC+ accelerating production increases Brent now ~$60/barrel Impacts: ✅ Good for fuel prices & oil consumers ❌ Bad for Sasol (though price hasn’t reacted much) 🏚️ Fracking rigs in US may shut down if prices fall further Possible geopolitical angle: helping Trump by lowering gas prices 💵 Rand Strengthens ZAR at R18.24/USD, nearing a key R18.30 technical level Boosted by stronger exports, higher gold prices Could trend toward R17 if momentum continues 🪙 Gold Surging Again Gold bouncing back above $3,000 after recent dip Driven by: Central bank buying Rebound in ETF inflows (especially in Europe, Asia, and US) General inflation and recession fears Upcoming FOMC decision adding fuel to the rally 🏛️ FOMC Decision This Week Fed expected to hold rates US inflation stickiness, strong jobs data, and political independence from Trump all in play Simon expects no change but criticizes SARB for being too hawkish despite low SA inflation (2.7%) 🧠 Palantir Results – Big Numbers, Big Risks Q1 Revenue up 39% YoY to $884M Customers up 39%, EPS (non-GAAP) at $0.13 Price-to-book: 58x ⚠️ EV-to-sales: 100x ⚠️ Heavy stock-based comp = shareholder dilution Analysts split: mostly neutral or bearish You’re investing in Peter Thiel’s vision, not value metrics
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Alphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data
04/30/2025
Alphabet is way Cheap | Nasty US economic data
🎙 Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet’s surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump’s trade mess, and the implications of Aspen’s customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events. 📉 US Economic Data Shock Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬 Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected Recession fears intensify US GDP Q1 2025 🇺🇸 Trump’s 100-Day Trade Tangle Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days — none signed yet India might come to the table soon Tariff chaos continues, shelves may empty by July Xi Jinping not engaging — trade uncertainty remains high 📊 Alphabet (GOOGL) is Looking CHEAP PE under 20, forward PE ~17 🔥 YouTube: $9B in rev, larger TV share than Netflix Cloud turning profitable; Waymo surging Risks: Antitrust cases, weakened core search, AI competition Analyst sentiment: 13 Strong Buys, 39 Buys, 12 Holds Price targets: Avg $202, High $240 🧠 Search Wars: Google vs. AI Google Search = cluttered & ad-heavy Simon prefers Perplexity & ChatGPT for clean, accurate info Questions around ad revenue in AI-driven search era 💥 Aspen: Trust Broken Lost a major take-or-pay client 🧪 Share down ~33%; questions around facility utilization Replacing lost volume could take 12–18 months Confidence in management fading Aspen | Weekly 29 April 2025 📉 SA CPI Drops to 2.7% Well below target band midpoint of 4.5% Inflation lowest since mid-2020 Will SARB cut rates? Depends on FOMC outcome on 7 May 📚 Budget 3.0 Incoming New budget after VAT hike rejection 21 May – Stay tuned for more policy drama 🏛 Berkshire Hathaway AGM 🧓 First meeting without Charlie Munger Warren Buffett expected to address investment outlooks and succession
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Rare Earth Minerals. Not so rare, but worth a look?
04/23/2025
Rare Earth Minerals. Not so rare, but worth a look?
Gold Pullback in Focus Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321. Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts. Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000. Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025 Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target. Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself. Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). One of the wildest moments in market history. 21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative New Battery Tech from China’s CATL Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging. CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky. Aspen's R2 Billion Hit Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss. Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.
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Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?
04/15/2025
Gold $4,500 by yearend, is it even possible?
🌍 Global Markets Rundown Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher. SA gold stocks (YTD performance): Pan African Resources +106% Harmony +76% AngloGold Ashanti* +72% Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues) Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025 📉 Recession Watch Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.” Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty. Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation). Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds. China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system. 💸 Currency Check The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD. Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100. Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving. 📊 ETFs & Resources Rally Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD. Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy. 📈 Local Market Highlights Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out: Strong results: HEPS up 204%. Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue. Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week. Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?
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Trade Wars | Recession | What about your Portfolio?
04/09/2025
Trade Wars | Recession | What about your Portfolio?
🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70. 💥 Global Markets in Turmoil S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips. S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025 🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years. Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est). Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course. Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders. 🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China). Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession. Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out. 🏦 US Treasuries Drama Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows. Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt? 💡 What To Do As An Investor Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks. Opportunities: SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts
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Glynn Allen | Shyft Global Offering JSE Shares
04/04/2025
Glynn Allen | Shyft Global Offering JSE Shares
Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.
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Two US Stocks Looking Good | Commodities Quietly Having a Good Year
04/01/2025
Two US Stocks Looking Good | Commodities Quietly Having a Good Year
S&P 500 Bounce? After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility. Budget Vote Approaches: The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high. Commodities on a Quiet Rally: Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date. Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire. Amazon at a Discount? Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential. Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Appeal: Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive. Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025 Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility. 00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations
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Education Stock Highlights | Rhodium & Copper on the Move
03/25/2025
Education Stock Highlights | Rhodium & Copper on the Move
Education Stocks: Winners and Losers Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers. Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group. Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025 Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels. Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges. BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs. Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency. Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models. Tesla’s Market Share Decline in Europe Tesla’s share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%. Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates. CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affecting brand perception. Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155. The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels. Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation. 00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights
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Renergen sells Helium, Finally. Gold & Top40 at all-time Highs
03/19/2025
Renergen sells Helium, Finally. Gold & Top40 at all-time Highs
Market Overview: Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff. Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025 Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties. Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025 Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80. Key Market Insights: Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. Dollar Index Trends: Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. Could drive the Rand towards 17.80. Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs. Investment Strategies: AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. Two options: 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. Open for investment until March 28, 2025. Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: Finally delivered helium after years of delays. Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays. Macroeconomic Outlook: Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. Economic slowdown concerns intensifying. Upcoming Rate Decisions: US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut. 00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook
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Atlanta Fed has the US already in recession for Q1
03/11/2025
Atlanta Fed has the US already in recession for Q1
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as . Market Reactions and Sell-Offs Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility. Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors. Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025 Just One Lap Turns 14 Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support. South African Budget Review Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies. Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability. Discussion on potential economic impacts. HomeChoice International Results Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%. Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice. Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance. Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go? Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending. Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International). Implications for long-term financial planning. 00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?
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Tariffs, Results and a Strategic Crypto Reserve (#621)
03/05/2025
Tariffs, Results and a Strategic Crypto Reserve (#621)
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Understanding tax and donations | Sasol results fail to excite
02/25/2025
Understanding tax and donations | Sasol results fail to excite
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Xi Jinping makes nice with Chinese tech | Anglo raids Anglo Plat cash pile
02/18/2025
Xi Jinping makes nice with Chinese tech | Anglo raids Anglo Plat cash pile
Anglo-American’s Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts. China’s Tech Revival? The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem. Is China reopening the door for its tech giants? Bull Market Momentum Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run?
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China Running and Finally a Sasol Reversal Pattern?
02/12/2025
China Running and Finally a Sasol Reversal Pattern?
Market Updates & Analysis: Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern. Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence. South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook Stock & Sector Insights: Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure. China Stocks & ETFs: Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’ Bond Market Watch: SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs.
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Golden Highs & Trump Trade Shambles
02/06/2025
Golden Highs & Trump Trade Shambles
Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended. Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades. Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: Bank of England expected to cut rates. U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024. Gold Market Strength & Outlook: Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well. Gold weekly | 06 February 2025 Retail Sector & Consumer Spending: Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs. Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong. Cautious consumer spending patterns persist. Two-Pot Retirement System: Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA’s economy. Vehicle Sales Trends: January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda. Such African monthly vehicle sales Sasol’s Ongoing Struggles: Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation. 00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook
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