The Optimism vs Reality Episode | The Real Investment Show (Full Show EDIT) 4/14/21
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 04/14/2021
5-1-24 What Happens When Companies Miss?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Fed Day brings dovish expectations; so far, so good in current earnings season. Economic data is all over the board; Europe emerges from Recession. Taxes to increase; tax flight is inevitable. Market correction continues; can it hold support at 100-DMA? A 10% correction would be normal. Earnings recap (so far) Amazon, CVS/Healthcare: Baby Boomers' elective surgeries are impacting insurors' actuarial tables; the rash of retirees. AMD disappoints because their report was on-target, not better-than-expected. Overall, a mixed-bag of results. What happens when companies miss? META: Is the...
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5-1-24 The Normality of a 10% Correction
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets came off support at the 100-DMA, rallied to the 50-DMA and failed in a first test of resistance. No dramatic surprise. The important thing now is to hold support at the 100-DMA. The month of April was somewhat weak, and historically, that leads to a stronger May; we'll see if that plays out because May tends to be a weaker-performing month, particularly during Presidential Election Years. There is potential for this correction to drag out, and the risk is the extreme deviation which remains at the 200-DMA at around 4,700. There is another 5% decline needed to get down to that level....
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4-30-24 Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Fed Meeting preview; earnings season contiunes, buybacks about to resume. What's up the the Yen? Corporations are the net buyers of stocks; the correction is done: There's lots of underlying support for markets; after two good market days, closing above 20-DMA, moving to re-test 50-DMA, but likely to fail, dependent upon Fed comments. Lance & Jonathan discuss the Astro's, dance team tryouts, and the problem with investor negativity. Similarities with AI and Dot-coms: Will this be the next crash? What will create a credit-related event? Why the current correction is done...for now. The...
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4-30-24 Is a Market Pullback Ahead?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Futures are somewhat depressed after two good days in the markets, wjhich follow six days of selling. We noted that Sellers live higher, Buyers live lower. Markets closed above the 20-DMA on Monday, and the big test to day will be at the 50-DMA...which will likely fail. A market pullback ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement would be no surprise. But, if the Fed says something that's perceived as being more hawkish, markets could certainly come down to test the 100-DMA. Comments reiterating plans to cut rates, however, could motivate markets higher above the 50-DMA over the next couple of...
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4-29-24 Sucker Rally Or The Return Of The Bulls
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market performance in election years is marked by investor anxiety over the outcome, and the potential for outlying risk. The FOMC Meeting this week: will the Fed halt plans for cuts, and possibily even hike rates? Expectations for strong employment numbers. Markets rally on PCE report, beginning to build a new, bullish trend. This will be a busy earnings week. When the correction comes, how you will play? The liquidity boost from tax receipts in April & October. Retail sales details: Are things as strong as they seem: Paying more to buy the same. Is AI the wave of the future for cargo...
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4-29-24 Are Markets Building a New Bullish Trend?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets rallied nicely on Friday on the latest PCE report that suggests the economy is doing very well, plus booming quarterly reports from Goodle and Microsoft. In theory a new, bullish trend in the market is beginning to build, with higher lows and higher highs. If we can break out of the convergence of the 20 and 50-DMA's, markets have a shot at re-testing previous highs. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...
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4-26-24 Are You Prepared for Higher Taxes?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets & Earnings Recap, PCE Preview: What is the Fed going to do? Tesla takes it on the chin; Mortgage rates and home prices are on the rise; are homeowners feeling trapped? How far will your money go in retiremetn? Higher taxes are coming; who'll pay the most? Training for Retirement: How to flip the switch from accumulation to de-cumulation; living without that paycheck. Budgeting and spending planning: Where does the money go? Compounding only works if the principal remains untouched. Automating savings. Putting underwear on a payment plan; the ugly truth about automobile financing....
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4-25-24 Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it's important.Economic strength is keeping inflation high; can it last? After markets' nice sell off, downside risk still remains. Paying attention to economic reports and supply & demand; looking at Q1 GDP estimates; market review: Tesla & Meta: Narratives are fine, but look at the technicals. Bond auction narratives have been all over the place. Lessons for...
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4-25-24 Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets' predicted sell off occurred, and there's still room to the downside. As we've noted, a 5 - 10% correction was very possible because of markets' extreme deviation from the 200-DMA. That gap still must be closed, and to do so will take the market down to about the 4700 level. We've already taken a 5.5% correction to the 100-DMA. Yesterday's impact of META and IBM did not help. Today we'll test support at the 100-DMA: If markets can hold at that point, we're likely going to be through the correction, However, if the market fails at the 100-DMA, it will then drop to test the 200-DMA to...
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4-24-24 What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Was Lance Roberts eaten by cannibals? (He will return tomorrow!) How Tesla fell out of the Magnificent Seven; Tesla's storage technology vs cheaper Chinese EV's & the future of EV's. The true environmental impact of building EV's. The RIA 8-Ball predictions for PCE. What does realistic retirement look like? The impact of inflation, the Retirement Clock, & you. A discussion on the need for guaranteed income; how Gen-z will retire & the DNA of Super-savers. Educational goals and vocational training. Candid Coffee recap; the public are the best economists. Professional vs Trade...
info_outlineSEG-1: What's Driving Inflation vs. Deflationary Pressure
SEG-2: Coinbase IPO & The Race to the Bottom
SEG-3: NFIB Report Review: Economic Exuberance vs Reality
SEG-4: Economic Reports; Congress' Access to Information
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Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
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Articles Mentioned in this show:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/payment-for-order-flow-the-fleecing-of-the-retail-investor/
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/inflation-making-the-complex-simple-part-2/
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