Taking Advantage of Market Strengths & Weaknesses | Three Minutes on Markets & Money [7/6/21]
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 07/06/2021
4-25-24 Lessons for Investors from the NFL Draft
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance is Back! What is really happening in Commercial Real Estate: Getting distressed inventories off the books at deep discounts. Market performance recap: Nice bounce off the 100-DMA; PCE coming: What it means & why it's important.Economic strength is keeping inflation high; can it last? After markets' nice sell off, downside risk still remains. Paying attention to economic reports and supply & demand; looking at Q1 GDP estimates; market review: Tesla & Meta: Narratives are fine, but look at the technicals. Bond auction narratives have been all over the place. Lessons for...
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4-25-24 Downside Risk is Alive and Kicking!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets' predicted sell off occurred, and there's still room to the downside. As we've noted, a 5 - 10% correction was very possible because of markets' extreme deviation from the 200-DMA. That gap still must be closed, and to do so will take the market down to about the 4700 level. We've already taken a 5.5% correction to the 100-DMA. Yesterday's impact of META and IBM did not help. Today we'll test support at the 100-DMA: If markets can hold at that point, we're likely going to be through the correction, However, if the market fails at the 100-DMA, it will then drop to test the 200-DMA to...
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4-24-24 What Does Realistic Retirement Look Like?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Was Lance Roberts eaten by cannibals? (He will return tomorrow!) How Tesla fell out of the Magnificent Seven; Tesla's storage technology vs cheaper Chinese EV's & the future of EV's. The true environmental impact of building EV's. The RIA 8-Ball predictions for PCE. What does realistic retirement look like? The impact of inflation, the Retirement Clock, & you. A discussion on the need for guaranteed income; how Gen-z will retire & the DNA of Super-savers. Educational goals and vocational training. Candid Coffee recap; the public are the best economists. Professional vs Trade...
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4-23-24 Five Financial Mistakes to Avoid if You're Retiring Within Five Years
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market Commentary: Are there more declines to come? What is the path forward for 5% Bonds? PCE and more earnings reports coming; How to crossover from accumulation to de-cumulation; topic teases: Keeping more of your inheritance; how to increase your inheritance. How to manage funds qwith legacy intent in mind. The important of financial planning before retirement; what is the rate of return you need? The importance of budgeting; financial mistakes you should avoid within five years of retirement; dealing with the rule changes. Dealing with and planning for Social Security. What is the...
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4-22-24 Powell Suggests “Higher For Longer”
The Real Investment Show Podcast
After six days of market declines, is the Correction done? Election risk scenarios & market volatility; markets do not like uncertainty. PCE preview (the inflation gauge the Fed pays attention to). Markets break the 50-DMA, and are now sitting on the 100-DMA. The unsurprising uptick in inflation and the impact of higher raates; why commodities matter. Higher for longer, for not much longer: Rates must come down; NFIB preview. Hey, what happened to all the Ukraine aid US taxpayers propvided? Inflation is a function of supply & demand; where is the higher demand going to come from?...
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4-22-24 We Are Not Likely Done with Correction
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have had a complete washout after six straight days of declines. The broke the 20-DMA, took out the 50-DMA, and markets didn't even breathe. As of Friday, we're sitting right on the 100-DMA, as we don't think this correction is yet finished. We do expect a rally up to about 5100, with the potential for another retest of the 100-DMA, and possibly even lower. There is now the possibility of a market rally up to a level of resistance, followed by another leg lower, before this correction is complete. Alternatively, we could have another rally straight up, depending upon how the current...
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4-19-24 Did You Pay Your Fair Share of Taxes?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets respond to Israel attack on Iran; Procter & Gamble disappoints; markets are in a churning phase. Fed rate decisions & market behaviors. How much do you really need to survive in retirement (What's your number?) Managing expectations, spending habits, and dependency on Social Securituy; the scinece & art of financial planning; retirement realities. The intimate process of deliverying financial plans; Candid Coffee preview. The three phases of retirement: Go-go, Slow-go, & No-go. Real Investment "'Shrooms." Tax Foundation survey: Do you pay your fair share of federal...
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4-18-24 Are We On Japan's Path to Stagnation?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Husband Appreciation Day, Mother's Day, cooling Middle East tensions; the is the Fed allowing the system to percolate? Inflation remains sticky. Markets in correction mode; what happens when the 50-DMA breaks? What to do when the market bounces. Is Fd policy tight enough? The market and the Fed are, for once, on the same page. Foreign buyers' participation in auctions is good; markets are too driven by headlines and algorithms. Gen-Z "discoveries" and remakes of '80's movies; commentary on the good music of the late 1900's. Is higher inflation sustainable? The give and take in inflation...
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4-18-24 Do You Buy or Sell Into the Bounce?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are still in a correction mode, and we've been talking about a looming correction since January, with markets continuing to grind higher along the 20-DMA. When the 20-DMA broke, the computer buying algorithms were tripped. Now we're down about 4% from the peak, working off the initial 5% of the correction. (Fibonacci primciple explained here.) After four-straight says of selling, markets are getting over sold, and preparing for a bounce. The question now becomes, whether to buy the bounce, or sell into the bounce? Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO ...
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4-17-24 How to Screw Up Retirement in 12 Easy Steps
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market Recap, Jerome Powell on rate cuts and stickier inflation; commodities on the rise = inflation. The CRB Index correlation with W. Texas Crude; no rate cuts until Fall? Markets break the 50-DMA; might be time to trim and rebalance for risk. Jury Duty and the Reflation Trade; Easter + Spring Break impact on March retail sales were underwhelming, following similar disappointment with February & Valentine's Day sales. How long can "buy-now, pay-later" last? How to screw up your retirement; the only way to wealth is by saving money; investing is for protecting wealth against inflation....
info_outlineNOTE: Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
(7/6/21) Markets achieve one of largest increases on record in first-half of 2021; and markets will probably end the year on an up-note. However--exceptionally strong markets in first half of a year tend to be the peak over the course of the next couple of years. Historically, years that follow typically have negative market returns. Markets are up 16% so far in 2021--that's a 32% return on an annualized basis. But beneath the surface, there is less positive action being seen, with mid- and small-cap stocks struggling. Money is "hiding" in highly-liquid areas of the market, such as large-cap stocks. Watch for a period of relative weakness in August and September, and the risk for corrective action. Use the current situation as an opportunity to raise cash, rebalance portfolio, and prepare so that you can take advantage of any market strength at the end of the year...which will be at a lower level than where we are now.
- Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts
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