5-9-24 Finding the Next Apple Using Buffett's Logic
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the pig really out of the python? (Excess savings are gone.) Who is still spending, and how? Government spending and consumer credit card usage; buy-now, pay-later (BNPL) plans being used to buy groceries and make ends meet. There are no stats to determine credit risk presented by BNPL companies. Markets sell-off, rally, and end at break-even. The correction is over...for now. No earnings growth outside the Magnificent Seven or top large-cap companies. Companies not rewarded greatly, but brutally punished. Uber, Shopify, Starbucks bellwethers of consumer spending. McDonald's, Five-Guys,...
info_outline
5-9-24 Market Volatility Reverses Again
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold-off, rallied, and then ending flat on Wednesday, good enough to chalk up another "green candle day." This just continues to show there are buyers entering the market. Remember, Sellers live higher, Buyers live lower. When Buyers evaporate, prices drop to the next level of pricing at which Buyers are willing to buy. How amazing it has been to see how rapidly the Volatility Index has reversed: It took 15-sessions for the VIX to go from 13 to 21; it took 13-days to go back to 13. What looks like a big spike in volatility, on a longer trend is barely a blip. Concern for a sell-off is...
info_outline
5-8-24 The Difference Between the Price You See vs the Price You Pay is Growing
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Citi Surprise Index: When economists are disappointed in estimated numbers; that index is now at a low ebb. An uneventful earnings season is wrapping up with fair results; the only companies seeing margins grow are large caps. Markets eke out gains for 4th straight day; the benefits of a market pullback; CTA's have money to spend, plus resumption of stock buy backs. Old Shows & Actors; the great un-bundling of fee has created fees on fees; tipping & charges-per-squirt(!): Budget leakage. Buying Made in USA. AI Golf robots, Robocop, & Skynet; the worst financial mistake some...
info_outline
5-8-24 A Pullback Would Be Nice
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets ecked out a very small gain on Tuesday, chalking up four days of positive finishes. The buy signal is now firmly in place, and markets are becoming a bit over bought; a pullback at this point, with a bit of a hold, would be helpful. And a rally forward from that level would then continue the bullish trend. There is a lot of buying on deck with the return to stock buybacks and computer trading algorithms primed with about $80-billion in cash to use. There's a lot of potential buying in store over the next month. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO ...
info_outline
5-7-24 Powell Sparks a Buying Frenzy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Economists' 'rush-to-judgement' vs the lag effect catching up w economic data. Consumer spending and loan demand are waning as excesses in money supply are normalizing. The data re beginning to refute the "no recession" theme. Market correction is now over, bullish trend to resume. The challenge of NOT expecting recession; what the data is starting to show; not a lot of risk in credit markets...yet. That's where trouble will show up first. Geopolitical conflicts do mot matter to markets for long; world wars do. Spreads between corporate bonds vs treasuries are at an all time low (90bp)....
info_outline
5-7-24 Aiming for 5,300
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets rallied to close above the 50-DMA on Monday, triggering computers' buy programs, and a final push at the end of the day produced a close at the high for the session. Markets are now over bought and on a buy signal with no real, near-term concerns about a decline. Watch for a bit of sloppy trading over the next few days, and what would be great would be for markets to re-test the 50-DMA, hold it, and then make another move higher over the next few days. This would confirm a pathway to re-test previous highs. We think 5,200 or 5,300 is likely the top of this rally. Hosted by RIA Chief...
info_outline
5-6-24 What is Economic Stagflation?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
There are three possible paths for markets, moving forward. Markets are at a critical juncture at the 50-DMA; earnings "beat-rate" has been low, and earnings misses have been severely punished. Looking at the Fed's liquidity strategies; the markets' possible direction from this point. In dealing with inflation, which data measurement matters? Him's, Her's, & Botox: The rise in Gen-Z use of cosmetics for better selfies. What is Stagflation, and do we really have it? Inflation tracks economic growth; stagflation = high inflation, low economic growth, & high unemployment. We currently...
info_outline
5-6-24 Markets' Critical Resistance at 50-DMA
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are right at the 50-DMA which is critical resistance. It's make or break time: If markets break to the upside, we'll try to retest previous market highs at around 5,200. 80% of earnings reports are behind us, and those were "not great" with a very low beat rate. The majority of growth came from large cap companies. Earnings misses were brutally punished; rewards were not that great. The pressure at the moment is to the upside with the Fed becoming somewhat dovish at the moment. External distracions like the whether we'll get a recession, what's happening with ther Yen, and the...
info_outline
5-3-24 Who'll Win the Tax Cut Battle?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Apple's results + the Biggest Buyback Ever: Are iPhones becoming a high-tech toaster? Labor/Jobs Report preview; what the Fed may do. It is surprising the market is now down more than 5%. This has been a government-driven economy. Janet Yellen is a Marxist. Who will win the tax cut battle? We'll all lose. It's apsneding problem, not a revenue problem. Why are taxing lines drawn at $400k? The life of a WalMart manager; tax dollars go to waste. New Department of Valuations. Next Lunch & Learn preview: Medicare. Are advisors giving conflicting advice on Social Security? No one wants to...
info_outline
5-2-24 Powell Holds Pat (and the wealth gap becomes a chasm)
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market volatility returns amid earnings season, with McDonald's, KFC, and Starbuck's reporting weak earnings, suggesting tru impact of inflation on consumers, wjho are becoming more price-conscious. Markets perform a pump & dump on Wedesnday, with stock retesting the 20-DMA...and failing. Pelaton earnings disappoint; the Fed holds rates steady; everything is fine, but they're not cutting rates. Discussion of what this means for markets, liquidity, and reduction of Fed balance sheet. The Treasury's Bond Strategy. Pelaton Drama: CEO Exit; what the Fed said; markets have already priced-in the...
info_outline(6/15/22) Cryptocurrencies were supposed to be the ultimate alternatives to Gold and the Dollar, but that hasn't worked out so well: Back in 2015 there was a big move towards crypto's as the new "digital gold," with the ability to combat inflation--which seemed to work well, so long as a continuous stream of liquidity into the markets was unabated. Bitcoin soared to the $70,000 range, but since has fallen dramatically to $20k as the premise of crypto becoming the replacement for Gold as a hedge against inflation has fallen apart, and the speculative nature of crypto has evaporated as losses mount. As in any speculative asset, when losses reach a certain, critical point, margin calls and negative sentiment are triggered, and liquidation events occur. We will not be surprised to see a significant reduction in margin debt in the next report from FINRA. Ethereum has similarly lost a tremendous amount of value, down 60% for the year. Have these assets lost all of their value? Not necessarily; but speculative investment assets will always exhibit spectacular booms and busts. The question remains--when will these find their bottom, and when will a more opportune time to invest in them become apparent? We are now seeing significant deviations from long-term moving averages, suggesting a decent tradable rally--but we'd recommend using that rally to liquidate weaker positions, reduce risk, and raise cash ahead of a better opportunity for a longer-term, positive trend in which to invest.
Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
--------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/
--------
Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9yb6IliilQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1
-------
Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to RIA Pro:
https://riapro.net/home
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#Cryptocurrency #BitCoin #Ethereum #SpeculativeAsset #Markets #Money #Investing