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Retail Sales Reveal Cracks in Economy (5/16/23)

Release Date: 05/16/2023

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The Federal Reserve kept its stance firmly hawkish at their latest FOMC meeting — but what does that mean for stocks, bonds, and the economy? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, Jerome Powell’s comments, and the immediate market reaction, covering key sectors impacted, investor sentiment shifts, and the Fed’s outlook for inflation, growth, and monetary policy going forward. Lance and Michael discuss why Fed Head Jerome Powell was surprised by the Trump Tariffs, the relative strength of the dollar, and how the economy is "normalizing"...

5-8-25 Can the Market Continue to Build?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets initially responded with disappointment to the Fed holding firm on interest rates, but did pull out a positive day by the end of Wednesday's session. Markets again bounced off support at the 50-DMA, testing and holding that level twice in the past few days. Markets are building support at the same time the 20-DMA is catching up to the 50-DMA, building a double layer of support just below where stocks are trading. Professional traders are currently under-weight or equally-weighted exposure to equities, which gives a lot of potential buying power entering the market. Markets are now...

5-7-25 China Blinks

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting concludes this afternoon; expect some volatility. As the U.S. pushes forward with new tariffs and a tougher trade stance, China appears to blink — signaling potential cracks in its economic armor. Lance Roberts and Danny Ratliff dive into the latest developments in the U.S.–China trade conflict, why China is making strategic concessions, and what it means for global markets, supply chains, and future negotiations. Danny reviews his trip to South Africa, and they discuss the possible impact of AI on employment; market dynamics are being...

5-7-25 Shallow Pullbacks Still Spell Opportunity

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets sold off again on Tuesday, re-testing the 50-DMA. If markets can bounce and hold today, the 50-DMA will shift from resistance back into support. If markets fail there, the 20-DMA at 5,400 will be the next level of support. There are about 150-points of downside presently, and upside will be limited to about 5,730. Markets are performing well for now; retail investors bought heavily into the dip. The question is whether they right, or is this part of a bigger, corrective cycle? (Professional investors have already sold-out of this rally, being on the wrong side of the trade.) The...

5-6-25 No Free Lunch: The Hidden Costs of 'Free' Investment Advice

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Think you're getting "free" investment advice? Think again. Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn uncover the hidden costs behind so-called "free" financial services. Lance reveals the toughest jobs in America, and a look at the end of markets' winning string. Learn how mutual fund share classes — A shares vs. B shares — reveal how advisors get paid, and why front-end and back-end loads can quietly erode your returns. If you're not sure who's paying the fees, it's probably you. Lance and Jonathan take on the great AI debate: Whose jobs will be eliminated? Why Target Date Mutual Funds...

5-6-25 Markets Sell Off

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets sold off Monday after 9-striaght days of gains, as anticipated. Palantir announced earnings and outlook: The future for AI is very strong; the stock will open lower this morning simply because it has been trading at all-time highs. Diamondback Energy says they're back to peak oil production against a backdrop of very low oil prices; recently drilled wells are not profitable at current oil prices, which will be a challenge for the "drill-baby-drill' narrative. Meanwhile, markets are still sitting on a death cross between the 50- and 200-DMA; the 20-DMA is slopping upwards, providing...

5-5-25 Resistance Is Futile For Bulls And Bears

The Real Investment Show Podcast

May begins and stock buy backs return; earnings season has been okay, on lowered expectations. Employment report is stronger than expected, but showing slippage. Lance Roberts explores why resistance levels are challenging both bulls and bears in today’s volatile market. Over the past two weeks, the market has had a furious nine-day rally, the longest winning streak in 21 years. However, there are two takeaways from such a historic advance. First, it is “bullish” as investors return to the market. However, investors should also recognize that if the rally is the longest in 21 years, then...

5-5-25 Has the Market Rally Peaked?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Resistance is important because it applies to upside as well as downside in the market. Resistance (to prices going lower) is called support. Markets had a deep selloff down to three standard deviations, and when that happens, bottom buyers will come back into the market...and prices will begin to rise with that demand. Markets have now had nine days straight of advances, which is the longest such stretch in 21-years. However, all records are meant to be broken. The problem with records is they mark the maximum attainment at that point. The last time markets strung together 9-days of advances...

5-2-25 Doing Debt the American Way

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Why are Americans drowning in debt? In today’s episode, Jonathan McCarty and Matt Doyle uncover the real story behind 'Doing Debt the American Way.' Jonathan and Matt discuss the financial implications to Buy-now/Pay-later plans, how to save money at home, and the choices consumers are making to make ends meet. SEG-1: China's Long Game with Tariffs SEG-2: Debt American Style SEG-3: How to Save Money at Home SEG-4: First Time Investing for the Younger Crowd Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP, Senior Relationship Manager, Matt Doyle, CFP Produced by Brent...

5-1-25 What Is Up with Yields?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Bond yields are rising — but why now, and what does it mean for your investments? In this episode, we break down what's driving Treasury yields higher, how the Federal Reserve and inflation expectations are playing a role, and what the risks (and opportunities) are for stocks, bonds, and the broader economy. Stay ahead of market shifts with expert insights and practical strategies for the changing rate environment." SEG-1: Meta & MSFT Results to Float all Boats SEG-2: What's Up with Yields, Pt-1 - The Inputs to CPI SEG-3: What's Up w Yields, Pt-2 - Debt Refinancing Myths SEG-4: What's Up...

More Episodes

(5/16/23) Home Depot and Retail Sales numbers add their weight to Wall Street: April Retail Sales were lower than expected, rising only .4% from last month (this report was taped prior to numbers' release). Retail Sales make up 40% of personal consumption, which makes up 70% of GDP, so if sales are starting to slow, that does not bode well for economic growth. Hopes and expectations for an earnings trough in Q-4 of 2022, and subsequent earnings growth, has been buoying markets. But if the economy is indeed slowing, the future of earnings will be somewhat bleaker. Easter sales are expected to have boosted activity in April, but lowered tax revenues indicate more Americans are out of work, and lower tax refund checks will mean less spending than expected in April. Markets continue to trade in a range, and price compression continues; markets will soon have to make a declaration to rally for fall, one way or another. Markets are waiting on a catalyst to drive in either direction.
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
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