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Are You Really Ready for Tax Day? (4/5/24)

Release Date: 04/05/2024

The Real Investment Show Podcast

There are three possible paths for markets, moving forward. Markets are at a critical juncture at the 50-DMA; earnings "beat-rate" has been low, and earnings misses have been severely punished. Looking at the Fed's liquidity strategies; the markets' possible direction from this point. In dealing with inflation, which data measurement matters? Him's, Her's, & Botox: The rise in Gen-Z use of cosmetics for better selfies. What is Stagflation, and do we really have it? Inflation tracks economic growth; stagflation = high inflation, low economic growth, & high unemployment. We currently...

5-6-24 Markets' Critical Resistance at 50-DMA

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets are right at the 50-DMA which is critical resistance. It's make or break time: If markets break to the upside, we'll try to retest previous market highs at around 5,200. 80% of earnings reports are behind us, and those were "not great" with a very low beat rate. The majority of growth came from large cap companies. Earnings misses were brutally punished; rewards were not that great. The pressure at the moment is to the upside with the Fed becoming somewhat dovish at the moment. External distracions like the whether we'll get a recession, what's happening with ther Yen, and the...

5-3-24 Who'll Win the Tax Cut Battle?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Apple's results + the Biggest Buyback Ever: Are iPhones becoming a high-tech toaster? Labor/Jobs Report preview; what the Fed may do. It is surprising the market is now down more than 5%. This has been a government-driven economy. Janet Yellen is a Marxist. Who will win the tax cut battle? We'll all lose. It's apsneding problem, not a revenue problem. Why are taxing lines drawn at $400k? The life of a WalMart manager; tax dollars go to waste. New Department of Valuations. Next Lunch & Learn preview: Medicare. Are advisors giving conflicting advice on Social Security? No one wants to...

5-2-24 Powell Holds Pat (and the wealth gap becomes a chasm)

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Market volatility returns amid earnings season, with McDonald's, KFC, and Starbuck's reporting weak earnings, suggesting tru impact of inflation on consumers, wjho are becoming more price-conscious. Markets perform a pump & dump on Wedesnday, with stock retesting the 20-DMA...and failing. Pelaton earnings disappoint; the Fed holds rates steady; everything is fine, but they're not cutting rates. Discussion of what this means for markets, liquidity, and reduction of Fed balance sheet. The Treasury's Bond Strategy. Pelaton Drama: CEO Exit; what the Fed said; markets have already priced-in the...

5-2-24 Markets Pump & Dump

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets traded lower Tuesday, about 30-basis points below Monday's action. However, during the intra-day, markets underwent a massive flip: Stocks retested the 20-DMA following the Fed's announcement to hold rates steady; but in the final hour of trading, markets had a sharp sell-off to complete reverse all the day's gains. Markets will open higher today in an attempt to rally again. Technically speaking, a rising trend of bottoms is begining to emerge, and a consolidation wedge of prices is becoming apparent. This may be indicative of markets getting through the corrective process; May tends...

5-1-24 What Happens When Companies Miss?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Fed Day brings dovish expectations; so far, so good in current earnings season. Economic data is all over the board; Europe emerges from Recession. Taxes to increase; tax flight is inevitable. Market correction continues; can it hold support at 100-DMA? A 10% correction would be normal. Earnings recap (so far) Amazon, CVS/Healthcare: Baby Boomers' elective surgeries are impacting insurors' actuarial tables; the rash of retirees. AMD disappoints because their report was on-target, not better-than-expected. Overall, a mixed-bag of results. What happens when companies miss? META: Is the...

5-1-24 The Normality of a 10% Correction

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets came off support at the 100-DMA, rallied to the 50-DMA and failed in a first test of resistance. No dramatic surprise. The important thing now is to hold support at the 100-DMA. The month of April was somewhat weak, and historically, that leads to a stronger May; we'll see if that plays out because May tends to be a weaker-performing month, particularly during Presidential Election Years. There is potential for this correction to drag out, and the risk is the extreme deviation which remains at the 200-DMA at around 4,700. There is another 5% decline needed to get down to that level....

4-30-24 Bullish Sentiment Index Reverses With Buybacks Resuming

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Fed Meeting preview; earnings season contiunes, buybacks about to resume. What's up the the Yen? Corporations are the net buyers of stocks; the correction is done: There's lots of underlying support for markets; after two good market days, closing above 20-DMA, moving to re-test 50-DMA, but likely to fail, dependent upon Fed comments. Lance & Jonathan discuss the Astro's, dance team tryouts, and the problem with investor negativity. Similarities with AI and Dot-coms: Will this be the next crash? What will create a credit-related event? Why the current correction is done...for now. The...

4-30-24 Is a Market Pullback Ahead?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Futures are somewhat depressed after two good days in the markets, wjhich follow six days of selling. We noted that Sellers live higher, Buyers live lower. Markets closed above the 20-DMA on Monday, and the big test to day will be at the 50-DMA...which will likely fail. A market pullback ahead of tomorrow's Fed announcement would be no surprise. But, if the Fed says something that's perceived as being more hawkish, markets could certainly come down to test the 100-DMA. Comments reiterating plans to cut rates, however, could motivate markets higher above the 50-DMA over the next couple of...

4-29-24 Sucker Rally Or The Return Of The Bulls

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Market performance in election years is marked by investor anxiety over the outcome, and the potential for outlying risk. The FOMC Meeting this week: will the Fed halt plans for cuts, and possibily even hike rates? Expectations for strong employment numbers. Markets rally on PCE report, beginning to build a new, bullish trend. This will be a busy earnings week. When the correction comes, how you will play? The liquidity boost from tax receipts in April & October. Retail sales details: Are things as strong as they seem: Paying more to buy the same. Is AI the wave of the future for cargo...

More Episodes

Market and economic data preview: How to respond in current environment. The U.S. is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. Fed folks now saying it's possible to have no rate cuts this year. Are you really ready for Tax Day? Danny & Jonathan run through some tips and strategies. The advantages and distinctions of IRA's vs Roth's: Tax liability now or later? What are the odds of taxes going up in the future? How to handle being retired and going back to work. How does this affect RMD's? How to think ahead strategically about taxes in retirement. Rather Roth for younger workers. The advantages of HSA's. How to pay for weddings: Vendors vs gifting; wedding cakes vs photos. How to deal with Social Security clawbacks. Market futures, gold, and oil commentary.es vs photos. How to deal with Social Security clawbacks. Market futures, gold, and oil commentary.

SEG-1: A Tale of Two Economies: The Have's & Have-not's
SEG-2: Are You Really Ready for Tax Day?
SEG-3: Back to Work & RMD's
SEG-4: How to Pay for Weddings & Deal w Social Security Clawbacks

Hosted by RIA Advisors Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, w Senior Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFA, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYfjniJpIkc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Japans Lost Decades: Are We On The Same Path"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/japans-lost-decades-are-we-on-the-same-path/
"Market Corrections Matter More Than You Think"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/market-corrections-matter-more-than-you-think/
"Q1 Earnings Season Approaches"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "The Bernie Madoff Trendline Remains in Effect" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecmypMh1FPI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Is America Mirroring Japan's Lost Decade"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BTNuUiRW5fo&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
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https://streamyard.com/watch/qbNmkhUtAemn
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