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Debunking Dollarization: Why the Dollar Is Stronger Than Ever

Release Date: 06/20/2024

9-27-24 Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the markets hate uncertainty). With the ebb and flow of markets, we make adjustments on the fly, not per formula. Interest Rates & Real Estate: As rates come downm, time to buy or refinance? How Mortgage Rates and Fed Rates behave; patience...

9-26-24 Bull Steepener Alert: How Agency REITs Can Supercharge Your Portfolio

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's own AI investments(?) are doing verrry well. Markets' short term Cup & Handle formation confirmed Wednesday; this is now the second-biggest year for equities inflows since 2014. However, there are negative divergences from market trends indicating...

9-26-24 Flow Trumps Thesis

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The markets; short term "Cup & Handle" formation was confirmed on Wednesday, which is a technical expression of markets' bullishness. Such usually leads to higher stock prices, leading analysts to predict S&P 6,000 in 2025. This year has seen the second-largest equity inflows since 2014. Foreign inflows to U.S. stocks have been "ginormous." Regardless of your ideas about the markets and investing, flows trump thesis. Every time. But...a longer term analysis reveals an interesting, negative divergence in relative strength and market momentum. These may be indicators of markets getting...

9-25-24 Rate Cuts & Recession Fears: Will Politics Drive Your Portfolio Off a Cliff?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formation has appeared, suggesting higher market prices in 2025. Markets, however, are extremely deviated, which is unsustainable, and correction is inevitable. Lance reviews "peak attractiveness" among the sexes and adult dating. The Fed's rate...

9-25-24 Will the Cup & Handle Runneth Over?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets are pretty bullish, short term: Technically speaking, last year's "Cup & Handle" formation suggested markets would go higher this year, which is exactly what happened. That same formation has repeated itself this year, and what we're looking for at this point is a retest of the 20-DMA to confirm the pattern's formation (and inferrence of higher market performance in 2025). Meanwhile, stocks have become very over bought, with investors become very confident in their performance. However, there is a larger concern: Historicaly, whenever markets have been three standard deviations...

9-24-24 Who Benefits Most from the Latest Fed Rate Cut?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what's the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance reviews Gold behaviors during rate cutting cycles; big surges in Gold lead to longer-term bases. Why the Math of Loss matters; corrections are really no big deal. The wisdom of managing protfolio risk along the way; don't let the fear of taxes cost you...

9-24-24 Oil price dip - a signal of economic weakness?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Oil prices have rallied and are becoming over bought, but remain weak overall. This decline in oil prices is undermining some of the more exuberant outlooks for earnings, going into the fourth quarter, and certainly opinions about growth in 2025 (which some analysts are calling for 18% earnings growth next year!) So expectations that things are going to kick off to the moon as the Fed lowers rates may be a little too optimistic with one of the basic commodities, oil, not showing the relative strength you would want to see in a "much improving" economy. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment...

9-23-24 Will This Week's Data Support Fed Rationale for Cutting Raates?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

We're entering the last-half of September, which is typically the weaker period of an already, traditionally weak month in the markets. Earnings seasons is about to beging, and Q3 estimates have already been slashed; this isn't 1995, though: Is the Fed's rationaled for cutting raates going to be validated by this week's economic data? Markets ended slightly lower on Friday, but still holding onto breakout level. Lance relate's Mrs. Robert's most recent holiday decor disappointment, and announces news substack channel, @lanceroberts. Shocker: The Washington Post debunks climate change data....

9-23-24 Market Selloff Still Likely Ahead of Elections

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets fluttered on Friday, ending right where they started. An unusually large options expiration cluster added volatility. There were two bullish standouts: Markets held on to the breakout level established on Thursday, and, while markets are still over bought, a buy signal is still in place. However, upside may be limited. Markets will next begin to adjust expectations as they determine who the most likely winner will be in the presidential election, and whose policies will impact markets. For now, be patient, and the market will tell us what to do next. Hosted by RIA Chief...

9-20-24 Fed Rate Shock - How the Latest Cut Could Ignite or Crash Your Investments

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Was the Fed's 50bps rate cut a "calibration?' We are still not at the Feds target for unemployment; the Fed's action was in response to conditions, not to help anyone politically. What will the Fed do next? The 50bps cut does nothing to help consumers. What is the neutral, real interest rate, now? Why a Fed rate cut is really bad news. How now to fund your goals: Time to trim exposure and move to cash, awaiting opportunities. Americans' pay has not recovered from inflation, requiring a "recalibration" of financial plans to adjust for realities. Two worst areas of inflation: Groceries &...

More Episodes

Will markets exhibit the typical summer weakness? Prepping for the election outcomes; correction coming now and later. Preview of housing numbers and initial jobless claims; market breadth is on the decline. The increasing gap between the S&P 500 and equal-weighted indexes. Lance discusses the relative strength of the Dollar vs other currencies. Petro-dollar fears and how you're being sold by Wall Street. Our narrative should be how to make money. The "demise" of the petro-dollar; keeping currencies all relative within a range is important for Trade. The Gold/Dollar dynamic; why the world transacts business in dollars: The need for a deep and stable currency...and safety. The importance of Rule of Law: How policy choices can errode trust in the dollar. The divergence between energy stocks and the underlying commodities; the cycle of commodity prices; a recession will cause the next price crash.
Seasonality in the month of June; wrapping the Quarter + buy back blackout = market headwinds. Rebalancing is coming. The Ozympic conundrum.

SEG-1: Summer Weakness for Markets?
SEG-2: The Petro Dollar
SEG-3: The Divergence Between Energy Stocks & Commodities
SEG-4: Seasonality in the Month of June; Weight-loss Drugs

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7k9Tvh-SzQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1138s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Consumer Survey Shows Rising Bullishness"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/consumer-survey-shows-rising-bullishness/
"Inflation Print Keeps Fed On Track To Cut Rates"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Grant: Rates Are Going Much Higher. Is He Right?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/grant-rates-are-going-much-higher-is-he-right/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Fed Cut Rates Sooner?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj2P5gV5qZk&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Retail Sales Disappoint"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uo6SSkYzr8I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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