9-6-24 How to Plan for Trump Tax Cut Expiration
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will last month's Jobs and JOLTS reports show "normalization" of employment numbers to pre-Covid counts? What will the Fed response be, and what will that imply about the economy? Richard & Danny further explore the "sunsetting" of tax rate cuts initiated by the Trump administration, and who might be affected: Most likely, everyone will see an average 3% increase, across the board. A real look at who pays their "fair share" and more, and who doesn't. SEG-1: Jobs Numbers & JOLTS Report: Back to Pre-Covid Normalization? SEG-2: Sunsetting Tax Cuts: Who Will Be Affected? SEG-3:...
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9-5-24 Limiting Losses with Yield Curve Analysis
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting: There's a 50-50-chance of a 50-bp rate cut; will tomorrow's jobs report show fewer jobs than before Covid? Numbers are suspect with labor "hoarding" a potential problem; negative revisions to JOLTS report, part of a trend of negative revisions back to 2002. Will Yields be 4% by Friday? What the bond market is indicating. Living in the late 1900's; The Bond Yield Bet: Lots of stragglers to natural buying on demand; depending on the Fed to cut rates. Corporations are shorting Treasuries ahead of their own bond issuances: Corporate debt hedging. There...
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9-5-24 Will Yield Be 4% by Friday?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Friday is the big employment report day; Bonds are very over bought, and bond yields are very oversold. Bonds are fairly deviated from moving averages to the downside. Traders are betting Yield could be 4% by Friday, suggesting the employment report is going to come a much hotter-than-expected. Now, that would be a HUGE move in one day, which we do not expect. However, if we get a strong employment report, followed by a strong CPI report, a reversal in yields would not be surprising. Any data that casts doubt on economic health is going to affect yields: A decline in yields is a bet on weaker...
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9-4-24 Big Down Day
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 sank 2.1%, the Nasdaq lost 3.3%, and while the tech sector led stocks into the red, the Dow wasn't excluded from the bad day either, shedding over 600 points for a 1.5% loss. What's next? The Tuesday market dump was accompanied by weak manufacturing reports suggesting the economy is weakening. The Yield Curve actually un-inverted briefly, and then re-inverted. Markets sold off more sharply than expected for no apparent reason, led by semiconductors and The Most Significant Stock in the market, Nvidia. However, after the dust settled, it was learned (by the rest of us) Nvidia...
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9-4-24 Will Market Correction Continue?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets were over bought and losing momentum yesterday, and there was a risk of correction looming for September-October. Markets sold off Tuesday more sharply than expected, however. The first test was the cross-over of the 50- and 20-DMA as initial support. Markets opened down and sold off all day long. At least some of that overboughtedness was reversed, but not enough to completely eliminate the selling pressure. However, we are very close now to triggering a sell signal on the MACD. Markets will open lower this morning and likely try to bounce. If that level of support is taken out today,...
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9-3-24 "Past Performance is No Guarantee..."
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's a holiday-shortened trading week to kick off the new month: September & October tend to be weaker trading months. Look for light volume and the impact of the corporate buy back window open and closing; markets tend to de-risk ahead of elections. Markets closed Friday at July's all-time high amid much bullish optimism. Markets today could retest 20- 50-DMA for support. despite a loss of momentum, take caution to not become overly negative. Lance and Jonathan address viewer emails about searching for investment research platforms (a la Morningstar), and the meanings of stock ratings...
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9-3-24 Will Markets Break Higher or Lower?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have a short trading week in which to function, and volumes will be a bit lighter. Markets closed on Friday at previous highs set in July. If markets can break out, that will allow momentum to carry markets higher. There is a lot of bullish sentiment. If markets close down today, that will keep things within a consolidation range. A break to the downside will test support at the 20- and 50-DMA. As markets are oversold, a breakout to the upside will be difficult to sustain in the near-term. We are seeing a loss of momentum over all. Don't become overly-negative, but this would be a good...
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8-30-24 Can Social Security Clawback Your Payments?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market Resiliency: It's always about the Fed. Nvidia and the AI story is still alive; Treasuries are overbought; Dollar General and Big Lots are struggling, surprisingly; where are the cracks in the economy? THe unwinding of the Tech sector, and how Google lets you know you're fired. The push to working longer; more and more are depending more and more on Social Security. legislation introduced to prevent SS clawbacks after 3-years: Is it a good idea? Why small towns are paying people to move there; living in a Dollar General, old food & Twinkies. How to boost credit scores without...
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8-29-24 Is Nvidia Priced for Perfection?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Looking ahead to September; why election polling is wrong; policy differences between Harris and Trump, and potential impact on markets. Nvidia earnings report rundown and stock buy back announcement. Nvidia owns 80% of market share for GPU's for data centers, with a new Blackwell chip on the way. Syppy & demand will be key to pricing. Groth expectations and market weighting; Nvidia valuation is extremely expensive: Priced for perfection, but difficult to deliver. How long can current marings hold, and who will compete w Nvidia? Picking the "next" Nvidia is impossible to know. The benefits...
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8-29-24 Nvidia Knocks the Cover off the Ball
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nvidia reports very strong revenue growth, up 122%, in its latest quarterly results. The chip maker is still seeing earnings beat estimates by a decent margin, and is announcing a $50-billion stock buy back program (Nvidia recently executed a stock split). Nvidia shares traded down about 7% following their report, most of which had aleady been recovered by this mornining, pre-market. Because of the unusual weight of pressure against disappointment, we trimmed our positions earlier this week. A big concern about these chips is supply and demand. Nvidia owns about 85% of the overall GPU market...
info_outlineThe Supreme Court strikes down the Chevron Deference that allowed government agencies to dictate policy, bypassing Congress. This may be the biggest decision since their relegation of abortion policy back to the states in striking down Roe v Wade. Meanwhile, markets end the 2nd quarter somewhat sloppily, but still positive for the year, possibly portending a positive finish for the year. This does not, however, exclude the possibility of correction this summer, and August, September, & October in an election year are typically weak. Lance retells his weekend rent house experience as an underscore endorsing renting over homeownership for most folks. Shocking. A look at the dichotomy of confidence: Expectations for market gains this year do now square with our feelings about the economy (and where do earnings come from?) The tale of the Roberts' celebrity dogs; why the NAR pushed for adjustable rate mortgages...and why they're a horrible idea for nearly everyone.
SEG-1: SCOTUS Chevron Deference - Markets Prep for 2nd Half
SEG-2A: The Shocking Saga of the Roberts' Rent House
SEG-2B: Why this is not a market to be keeping up with
SEG-3: The Confidence Dichotomy
SEG-4A: Checking-in the Roberts' Dogs at a Hotel
SEG-4B: Homeownership & Adjustable Mortgages: A Bad Idea
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QF2-xOKv68c&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"The Confidence Dichotomy"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Prepare for Second Half" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks5GW3xJgtg&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=2
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Our previous show is here: "Ten Steps, Ten Years to Retirement"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fullI_3AecY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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