7-16-24 Relationship Between Fed Rate Cuts and Treasury Yields Explained
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 07/16/2024
10-17-24 Volatility & The Market Climb: Should We Care?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales numbers today, and earnings recaps (so far) and previews; looking for an outsized seasonal adjustment to Retail Sales due to calendar anomalies; there's nothing overly concerning to markets. The big focus will be the election and it's outcome and control of House & Senate: The market hates uncertainty, and loves gridlock. Lance refutes rash of negative videos: Markets see nothing of concern. Market Bears are on parade, what does the rise in Volatility mean? The VIX is implied volatility: Will market move a lot or a little, but not in which direction. It is indicative of...
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10-17-24 Markets Will Trend Higher...Until they Don't
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Despite a plethora of negative videos proclaiming the imminence of market crashes, this market looks like 2007, and the end of the world is upon us (and there were plenty of headlines about a "soft landing" and a Goldilocks economy back then, too), markets currently are not suggesting any of that.: Markets have continued to make new highs, grinding along an upward trendline. Where does this leave us? We always caution against investing with reckless abandon, but there's also no reason to be overly bearish at this time. The trick to managing money is understanding that markets will trend higher...
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10-16-24 You Ain't Rich
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will the strength (or weakness) of the consumer be revealed in this week's Retail Sales report? Liquidity is continuing to flow into markets; if things are so good, why all the liquidity flows? Stock buy backs resume in 10-days, adding $6-B/day of more liquidity (which is NOT a return of capital to investors.) Energy stock exposure exoansion: As interest rates rise, so have oil prices. MACD Sell signal has been triggered, and we anticipate falling oil prices through the end of the year. Lance shares another Life w the Roberts' anecdote about son, Tommy; What does it take to be rich? Dealing...
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10-16-24 Why Oil Prices May Continue to Decline
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We previously added exposure to Energy stocks when they were all beat up, and following a correction in oil prices, we expected to see a pick-up. That has happened. As oil prices go up, so do interest rates because of the impact on inflation expectations from higher oil prices. That rally became very over extended and has now flipped with news that Israel will not attack oil fields in Iran. That, in turn, has triggered a fairly high-level MACD Sell signal, suggesting that oil prices could retract further over the next several months. That translated into a sell-off in Bond yields. The buy...
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10-15-24 Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales figures should be interesting, as retailers were stocking up ahead of the short-lived dockworkers' strike. Lance previews Thanksgiving at the Roberts' house, featuring brisket! Earnings week continues with a string of the most negative earnings revisions in a long while. Markets operating under a seasonal buy signal and an ever-upward trend: What could possibly go wrong? Lance discusses the importance of risk management in a bull market environment. How to lose 100% of your Money? Greed is a necessity fto build wealth; also must be optimistic & willing to take risk. The...
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10-15-24 A Bull Market Can Still Be Risky
The Real Investment Show Podcast
How can a seasonal buy signal comport with the need to manage market risk? You can have a market trending higher and still have risk: When you see markets moving ever higher, and become extremely deviated from the averages, it implies that you're going to have some kind of corrective action = risk. So even though you're in a bull market trend, and even though you have a seasonal buy signal it doesn't mean that you should avoid risk management. Deviations from the 50- and 200-DMA tend to correct back to the average...which is why they're called averages. Market behaviors around that event are...
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10-14-24 Wall St. vs. Main St. - Who's Right?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-strong period of the year after hitting new, all-time highs on Friday, triggering a buy signal. The risk of a deeper contraction is possible, but now unlikely. An analysis of the latest CPI numbers reveals a contrast between headline numbers and...
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10-14-24 Bull Market Remains Intact
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Seasonal Buy Signal is ON. The seasonally-strong period typically runs from October thru May, and is known as the best 6-months of the year. Stock pullbacks typically occur in the Summer, as we saw this year. Markets broke out to a new, all-time high on Friday; in a confirmation the the bull market remains intact. On a weekly basis (which slows down the date), we have triggered a buy signal, and this now corresponds with the seasonally-stronger period of the year, which suggests markets will continue to push higher into year's end. At the moment, there appears no risk to the markets....
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10-10-24 Rising Volatility, China Stimulus, & Storms' Economic Surge: What They Mean for Portfolios
The Real Investment Show Podcast
All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in the markets, thanks to uncertainty over presidential election outcome, Israel-Iran war effect on oil prices, etc. The VIX doesn't always tell you everything. We're at the beginning of a Fed-easing campaign; the Hawkish-Dovish Fed has a bipolar...
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10-10-24 Will CPI Report Trigger a MACD Buy Signal?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
There is a very define, rising wedge in the markets, which is both bullish and bearish: It all depends upon to which side markets break out next. As of Wednesday (9/9), we are right at the top of that bullish wedge. IF today's CPI report is good, and markets break to the upside, you will see markets continue higher, triggering a buy signal on the MACD. If inflation comes in hotter-than-expected, markets will sell off in anticipation of a reduction of odds of another rate cut. For now, bullish activity continues, with the 20-DMA acting as support; this compression of price is about to resolve...
info_outlineLance Roberts begins with an earnings and economic reports preview; there is now a 90% chance of the Fed cutting rates sooner than later, and odds-makers now expecte three rate cuts. Small- and Mid-cap stocks are now three standard deviations above their averages; might be time to take profits. Lance explains the correlation between Fed funds rate adjustments and bond performance, the relationship between Fed rate cuts and bond performance; analysis of the ten-year treasury versus the Fed funds rate; high correlation between Fed fund cuts and falling ten-year treasury yields; expected trends when the Fed starts cutting rates; implications for investors during a rate cutting environment. More economic previews; Lance and Jon discuss advisor fees and what you're getting (no not).
SEG-1: Earnings & Retail Sales Preview: Time to Take Profits?
SEG-2: Chances for a Rate Cut?
SEG-3: Invesetor Mistakes: There Are No Permanent Assets
SEG-4: The Question of Fees & What You're Getting - or not
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bnFVM2_njAE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Fed Rate Cuts – A Signal To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/fed-rate-cuts-a-signal-to-sell-stocks-and-buy-bonds/
"The “Broken Clock” Fallacy & The Art Of Contrarianism"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-broken-clock-fallacy-the-art-of-contrarianism/
"Put Options – Nobody Wants Them"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Time to Take Profits?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sM-c7jumqs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "The “Broken Clock” Fallacy & The Art Of Contrarianism"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYe_X26mids&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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