9-17-25 Fed Risk, Options Expiration & Market Volatility Ahead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Stocks head into today’s session on edge as the risk lies to the downside if the Fed disappoints. Adding to the mix, a record options expiration Friday could bring heightened volatility for the rest of the week. Money flows continue to chase equities, but the biggest rallies have come from the most-shorted stocks. International and emerging markets are also showing strong momentum, with many trading well above their moving averages. Still, a widening gap persists between S&P equal-weight and market-cap indexes, as AI-driven tech remains the primary driver of gains. Meanwhile, bond yields...
info_outline
9-16-25 Invest or Index? 5 Smart Strategies Explained
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Should you invest actively or stick with indexing? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down five different strategies investors use to build wealth, reduce risk, and stay ahead of the market. From active stock picking to index fund simplicity, we’ll explore the pros, cons, and real-world applications of each approach so you can better understand how they fit into your financial plan. 📺 Subscribe for more insights: https://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow SEG-1a: Fed Cuts & Commentary, Buy Back Window Shuts SEG-1b: Market Movement Muted SEG-2a: Tesla Shares &...
info_outline
9-16-25 Three Key Influences Driving Markets into December | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue the current phase of compression and no big moves in anticipation of Fed rate cuts to be announced tomorrow. Markets are operating under the lowest levels of compressed volatility we've seen in a while. Markets have just been ticking-up (or down) 20-basis points, 30-basis points each day, not making much headway. There is a slight tilt of more buyers than sellers at this point. The MACD buy signal is ON at elevated levels, which limits much more upside. We have moved into the seasonally weak period of the year, August and September, in which there is typically more volatility,...
info_outline
9-15-25 Earnings Slowdown Ahead - Jobs Data Sends Warning
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The jobs market isn’t just about employment—it’s a leading signal for corporate earnings. In this episode, we explore how recent employment data revisions and slowing job growth are flashing caution for corporate profits. Here’s what you’ll learn: Why employment trends often lead earnings results How slowing payroll growth may impact revenue and margins Key sectors most at risk from weaker labor demand What this signal could mean for the stock market outlook Portfolio considerations as corporate profits face pressure Understanding the link between the labor market and earnings is...
info_outline
9-15-25 All Time Highs on Muted Moves | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets hit another all time high last week, but on very muted moves as investors continue climb a wall of worry. Markets continue to test the 20-DMA and rally back above...another pullback to that level would not be surprising. Markets are somewhat over bought on a relative strength basis, and not sitting on a very tight MACD momentum signal. Retail buying is approaching some of the highest levels we've seen, while professional investors' allocations are still somewhat underweight equities (computer traded algorithms are excepted). AS we head into the end of the quarter, we could see...
info_outline
9-12-25 The Essential Hierarchy of Money Goals
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Where should your money go first? Too often, people skip ahead to investing or wealth strategies before laying the right foundation. Richard Rosso and Matt Doyle break down the essential hierarchy of money goals—a clear order of priorities to help you stay on track. From emergency savings and debt reduction to investing, wealth protection, and legacy planning, this framework shows you exactly how to progress step by step. By focusing on the right goals at the right time, you’ll reduce stress, improve financial security, and set yourself up for long-term success. Hosted by RIA Advisors...
info_outline
9/11/25 There Ain't No Inflation
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets and the Fed keep talking about inflation, but what’s really happening? Lance Roberts previews the upcoming CPI, PPI reports, and real-world data to explain why the official numbers don’t always match what you're feeling. From wages and rents to energy prices--is inflation is truly under control, or just hiding in plain sight. Discover how “disinflation” differs from “deflation,” why Wall Street’s narrative matters for stocks, and what it means for your portfolio. SEG-1a: Inflation Day - Will Tariffs' Effects Appear? SEG-1b: What Bond Yields Are Telling About Interest...
info_outline
9-11-25 The AI Trade is Back | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Good market performance on Wednesday, but that was on the backs of only a few stocks: Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle...all AI-related. Oracle's outlook for AI-related Cap-ex spending was optimistic, which dovetailed nicely with what Nvidia had said earlier. Oracle opened the day ahead 33%, traded as high as 40%, and closed the day with a 35% gain. That action lifted the entire Tech sector, and pushed the S&P to another all-time high. Price compression is creating a wedge pattern, which markets are trying to break out of. The negative divergence we've been watching really doesn't matter...until...
info_outline
9/10/25 Are We On the Edge of Recession?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Are we standing at the edge of a recession? Economic data is showing cracks: slowing job growth, weakening consumer spending, and tightening credit conditions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s policies continue to weigh on growth. In this episode, Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the key signals flashing caution, what they could mean for corporate earnings and market performance, and how investors should think about risk management in the months ahead; plus bonus content: Sourdough bread and marriage tips. SEG-1a: Jobs Revision and Economic Reality SEG-1b: Money Flows &...
info_outline
9-10-25 Money Flows Bolster Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Money flows have been positive over the past few weeks, yet markets have not advanced much. Relative strength is picking up, but still in a negative divergence with the market itself. However, momentum remains very, very slow even as stocks continue to rise. Only slowly. There is a significant gap between the market and the MAG-7. More inflation prints coming in the latest CPI & PPI reports, and if they come in weaker than expected, along with the recent disappointing employment numbers, the odds increase of a 50-bp rate cut by the Fed. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist,...
info_outlineEconomic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity.
SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July
SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment
SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time
SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
-------
Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/
"The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/
"Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/
"Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
-------
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-
-------
Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
-------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
--------
SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
--------
Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to SimpleVisor:
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#TrappedLongs #SahmRule #RecessionIndicator #MarketCorrection #CarryTrade #YieldCurveInversion #RecessionMisconception #YieldCurveUninversion #EconomicIndicators #FinancialHeadlines #InvertedYieldCurve #RecessionPrediction #EconomicAnalysis #MarketSignals #InterestRates #BondYields #EconomicCycles #FinancialMedia #MarketCommentary #EconomicForecasting #MarketTrends #FinancialEducation #Bonds #Gold #Recession #ISMServicesIndex #Markets #Money #Investing