6-30-25 MONDAY Best-of Show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This Month's Middle East turmoil calls to rememberance the Japanese Carry Trade blow up vs Iran Bombings: There is not the same sense of urgency this time; markets have already moved-on. Is Apple dead? Lance and Jonathan addresses a YouTube Chatroom query with analysis of how Apple continues to do well, despite a paucity of innovation; why 420 ETF's all own Apple; the evolution of the smartphone. Why you need Apple in your portfolio. Lance and Jonathan also address whether your college grad kid should move back in with Mom & Dad. SEG-1: Where's he Sense of Urgency? SEG-2: Is Apple Dead?...
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6-27-25 Annuities Are Not Your Enemy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Are annuities always a bad deal? Not so fast. In today’s episode, Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty tackle the myths and misconceptions around annuities. From income guarantees to tax-deferred growth, find out how annuities can actually support your retirement strategy—if used the right way. Jonathan shares his changed life as a new father, and a discussion of investor confirmation bias, who's likely to be the replacement for Jerome Powell, and the Shado Fed, tariffs, inflation, and political bias in investing. Rich and Jonathan address the growing impact of AI on the labor...
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6-26-25 The Fed's Next Mistake
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the Fed setting the stage for another policy blunder? As inflation pressures linger and economic growth slows, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the risks of the central bank's next move—and what it could mean for your money on this morning's episode of #TheRealInvestmentShow. The Market Rally is ON, yet oil prices are telling a different story about the economy. President Trump could be picking a successor to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sooner than later. Lance and Michael expose the Fed's political "independance," and it's proclivity for financial socialism. The Fed...
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6-26-25 What Oil Prices Are Saying About the Economy | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
In case you haven't noticed, the market's been in a rally ever since the April lows. Investor sentiment is finally turning more extreme-bullish. The whole Tariff thing is not A Thing; the Debt Crisis is not A Thing; World War 3 is not A Thing. Investors are starting to look past all this, and sentiment is on the rise. Markets on Wednesday knocked on the door of another all-time high; the NASDAQ achieved that milestone. Again. And it is possible the S&P will set a new, all-time high this week. Under the surface, things are over bought but not extremely stretched. July tends to be an event...
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6-25-25 The Bulls Are Back in Town
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market speculation is at an all time high, yet there are economic surprises in store that could shake things up. There is now an illusion of economic strength. Lance discusses the recent reversal of the Death Cross in the S&P and NASDAQ; the Gold Cross is at an all time high. Lance and Danny address the new push to make private equity investing available for "the little guy," and the illusion of limited volatility. Beware the "good deals;" Wall Street will always find something to sell you if you want to buy it. The fallacy of "above average" gains in private equity; you never hear about...
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6-25-25 Markets' Trajectory Remains Bullish | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets enjoyed a very nice rally on Tuesday, up by about 1% by the end of the day. A little bit of a sell-off right before the end of the session restrained markets from achieving another all-time high. The trajectory of the market remains bullish. Lance discusses progress since the Death Cross in the Spring; the difference between when a Death Cross matters or not is whether a Recession occurs afterwards. The NASDAQ is actually at all-time highs, triggering a "Golden Cross." If the NASDAQ continues to set new, all-time highs, it will drag the S&P with it. Despite these achievements,...
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6-24-25 Is WW III Off the Table?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the threat of World War III finally off the table? Lance Roberts breaks down the latest developments in global conflict and what they mean for financial markets. From oil prices and defense stocks to safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries, we’ll unpack how investors should think about geopolitical risk now. Are markets too complacent—or is the worst truly behind us? Is Apple dead? Lance addresses a YouTube Chatroom query with analysis of how Apple continues to do well, despite a paucity of innovation; why 420 ETF's all own Apple; the evolution of the smartphone. Why you need...
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6-24-25 Markets' Bullish Prelude to July
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets on Monday were under a bit of pressure because of the weekend bombings in Iran and their nothing-burger response. Markets broke out of their consolidation and ended the day in the green, retaining a bullish stance. Markets held support at a previous top, and proved multiple levels on which there is solid footing. Unfortunately, there's not a tremendous amount of upside from where we are now, but technicals are improving. The downside risk is down to 2,800, and there is about 100-points of upside, so the risk/reward is not great enough to be super-aggressive. Pay attention to slowing...
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6-23-25 U.S. Strikes Iran: How to Invest When Geopolitics Explode
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Of course, for Americans and the financial markets, the response from not only Iran but also Iran’s allies will be critical. Lance Roberts describes a process of logical evaluation and portfolio risk management when markets experience turmoil: What matters most to investors? What do these attacks mean for earnings? How might geopolitics affect EOQ activity? [NOTE: Lance is on vacation next week, 6/30-7/4] Remembering the Japanese Carry Trade blow up vs Iran Bombings: There is not the same sense of urgency this...
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6-23-25 Markets Respond to Iran Bombings
The Real Investment Show Podcast
How are markets reacting to the weekend bombings in Iran? Futures are slightly positive. On Friday markets sold off, landing right on top of the 20-DMA; the market continues to work along this support line after working off about half of the over bought condition. Looking ahead to next month, July tends to be a stronger period, going into the third quarter, and buy back windows reopen. There may be a decent entry point by the end of this week. The Dollar was already beginning to rally prior to the weekend's geopolitical news, and there is a huge short position on the Dollar. If the US...
info_outlineEconomic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity.
SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July
SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment
SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time
SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/
"The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/
"Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/
"Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-
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Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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