9-17-24 Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge...Until it Doesn't
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets' expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris' plans to raise taxes on corporations is in fact an crease in taxes on consumers; corporations are tax collectors for the government. Markets' rally in anticipation of Fed day tomorrow. The stock buyback window begins to close today ahead of the next earnings season,...
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9-17-24 Markets Prep for Fed Day
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Tomorrow is The Big Day for markets as the Fed makes known its intentions for interest rates. Markets have been rallying nicely in anticipation; yesterday, pushing up to all-time highs and finishing positive. Markets remain in a consolidation range, and tomorrow's Fed decision will determine the markets' direction. Note that today begins the closure of the stock buyback window, removing an element of "lift" from markets. With the next earnings season just two weeks away, that buying power will begin to fade. Meanwhile, a buy signal remains in place with markets at very high levels, so there...
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9-16-24 Market Risks We Are Watching
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Fed week, and many are predicting a 60% chance the FOMC will drop rates by a half percent; elections are drawing nearer: How will markets behave? (Why the polls are never right) Markets' 4% loss two weeks ago followed by 4% recovery last week; reversal days tend to mark bottoms, but not always. Last weeks' reversal was very bullish, but that doesn't mean we cannot have another correction. One risk is oil prices. XLE is over sold. The three risks we're watching include oil; discussion on the true meaning of inflation. Prices vs rate of change are two different things. The linkage of the...
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9-16-24 Oil Prices Belie Economic Weakness
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets saw a 4% decline week before last; last week, markets recovered by 4% in anticipation of what the Fed is going to do this week. Did that big reversal day two weeks ago mark a market bottom? Not necessarily, because there are plenty of examples where such has occurred at market peaks. There is no doubt the recent reversal was bullish, and there is no real reason to be overly bearish at this point. However, risks remain, and one of them is in Oil Prices, which have continued to weaken. Despite a bounce following a sharp sell off, the trend in oil prices remains weak. That does not...
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9-13-24 How to Create a Retirement Blueprint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Ratliff, but first a review of the markets: It's all about the Fed, and the grate debate is about rate. How much will they cut, and how many times? Watch for elevated volatility heading into the election; a divided-congress yields the best environment for markets. Who will have the best policies for the economy? What will your retirement look like? Commonalities vs net worth differences among peers; the need to set your own parameters. The importance of having paid-off debt. Components of a Retirement Blueprint: Needs, Wants, Wishes. "The New Retirement Mentality," by Mitch Anthony; dealing...
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9-12-24 Did Inflation Change the Fed's Outlook?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As we went to air this morning, Space-X astronauts are "space-walking," testing new spacesuits; is Elon Musk the real-live equivalent of Tony Stark? CPI prints cooler--but core CPI was hotter than expected. MEanwhile the NFIB Survey (showing conservative bent) shows increases in confidence wiped out as Harris capmaigns; policy matters. Markets Big Reversal on Nvidia commentary about AI chip demand; the news boosted markets to a 2.5% gain. CPI is a hot mess: Inflation is different for everyone; the important question is how CPI will affect markets. Lance and Michael discuss how CPI is...
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9-12-24 Markets Test Resistance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets had a big reversal day Wednesday: Core CPI was hotter than expected, and markets sold off about 1.5%. And at about the time markets were kissing the 100-DNA, Nvidia's CEO told a Goldman conference his company cannot keep up with AI chips demand. The Mag-7 came roaring back to drive markets up 1%, resulting in a 2.5% gain from the low. Markets are now testing resistance at the 20-DMA, and if successful, will rocket upward to new, all-time highs. Remain cautious for now and manage risk. Technically, the market is improving. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...
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9-11-24 What's Really Behind Stock Market Volatility
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today marks the 23rd anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks; it's Inflation Day and post-Debate day. Market volatility tends to increase prior to Presidential elections; why policy matters. CPI is expected to show a .2% increase (it's ALWAYS expected at .2%!) Oil prices are a function of supply & demand. CPI will most impact markets today, and factor into the Fed's rate decision next week. Volatility is the big market driver. What inflation is telling us about the economy; why falling inflation is not good for earnings. How companies are cutting wages (without cutting wages); Danny...
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9-11-24 CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
CPI will have an impact on the markets, as it feeds into the answer to the question, 'Will or won't the Fed cut rates this month?' Markets on Tuesday rallied right up to the 50-DMA; futures are subdued this morning, suggesting an initial test of resistance right at the 50-DMA. If that fails, there will be more pressure to the downside. Volatility is the big driver of the markets; there has been a little pickup in volatility during this most recent correction, but not to a great degree; the VIX is currently trading at around 19. The real challenge is positioning ahead of the Fed's rate...
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9-9-24 Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barriers and resistance in the way of markets moving higher. This is not a good time to buy bonds. Lance and Jon look at what happens to stocks when a company is added to the S&P 500; why you should never track to an index: They're not reality. Wall...
info_outlineEconomic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity.
SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July
SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment
SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time
SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/
"The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/
"Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/
"Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-
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Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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