1-14-25 Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase
The Real Investment Show Podcast
PPI & CPI Preview: Earnings season is about to commence, followed by the opening of the Buy Back window. Higher yields (and term premiums) are weighing on markets. Term premiums are just a measure of sentiment; watch what companies say, impacted by higher yields. Markets rally to just above the 100-DMA. Lance reviews investor sentiment, credit spreads, and market valuation (which charts). Noting the (limited) impact of taffis on a service-oriented economy. Being “tactically bearish” does NOT mean we are expecting a bear market or a severe market crash. Regarding portfolio management,...
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1-14-25 PPI Disappoints
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets rally to close just above 100-DMA on Monday. (If you're using a moving average as a stop-loss, don't initially react to a break!) Markets are typically oversold by the time those moving averages are violated. This morning's PPI will weigh on markets today (0.2% vs 0.4% EST), as will tomorrow's CPI number. There is lots of volatility potential for the next few days. With this cooler PPI print, markets could move higher: Markets are very negatively biased towards these reports, with expectations for a hotter number. How will markets respond to today's cooler count? Hosted by RIA...
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1-13-25 Investor Resolutions for 2025
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Cleveland Fed's expectations for increased inflation; Oil prices rise on increased Russia sacntions (thanks, Joe Biden); economic impact of California wildfires & the Broken Window Theory: There will be a short-term uptick from rebuilding activity. Markets point lower on hawkish Fed tone; current correction process is normal. There is not data to support investor sentiment on inflation sparked by tariffs; how we really create inflation. Employment increases inflation. Companies are front-running tariffs. Rising interest rates lead to valuation reversals. Every year, Dalbar Research...
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1-13-25 How Low Can Markets Go?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets will open lower this morning on continued inflation fears and the Fed's more hawkish stance. BUT...stocks have been really over bought and over deviated: Remember in December we were talking about over deviated stocks and the need for a correction. So now, selling pressure is continuing to revert that overbought condition, and so a correction should be no surprise. If markets do not recover today (we're right on the 100-DMA), there really is no additional support until markets go significantly lower towards the 200-DMA. That being said, it's not going to take s lot to create a bit of a...
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1-10-25 What the Social Security Fairness Acts Means for Your Retirement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Richard and Jonathan discuss the narratives that are driving the markets, and the fear factor for bond investors. Is the response to tariff threats an over-reaction? How to deal with emotions in investing. Menwhile, job satisfaction is highest among the 60+ crowd: The group has been working longer, and understands the value of socialization; retirement planning shold include qualitative elements. A look at Gen-z Worth Ethic. The Social Security Fairness Act is now the law of the land, signed on Sunday by President Biden. It promises to erase rules that penalized some retirees by eliminating...
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1-9-25 Why Are Bond Yields Rising?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets barely achieved a positive close on Wednesday, to create a string of positive action for the first five trading days in January. (Markets are closed today in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter.) There's a market consolidation underway, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA about to cross. Lance & Michael discuss the Fed's sentiment shift about inflation, and the non-corellation between interest rates and inflation. The Fed may have cut interest rates, but markets have raised them; the actual effects of Fed rate cuts are deflationary. Fed policy is still restrictive; economy is back to...
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1-9-25 DMA Crossovers Are Not a Death Knell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Wall Street axioms can be fun, but remember that they're based on historical averages. Which brings up the January Barometer: As go the first five trading days of January, so goes the month; and as goes the month of January, so goes the year. Markets eked out a positive day on Wednesday to barely produce a positive string of five trading days. But anything can happen. One thing to be wary of: The 20-DMA is close to crossing the 50-DMA. Markets have been doing okay in a continuation of consolidating that began back in August, but the proximity of those two moving averages to one another is...
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1-8-25 Market Reversal: Implications Now
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With Friday's December Employment Report waiting in the wings, it's fair to ask what happened to the December JOLTS Report. Investors are questioning whether we'll see continued growth from December. What does Q4 GDP at 2.7% really mean? Understanding the data and reading the January Barometer (so far). Lance shares his screen in commenting on sector rotations. Dan Niles' predciton of a 20% correction this year: Lance's reality check. Crash vs correction. Lance discusses the importance of an investing process: Rules to offset emotional bias. Fundamentals matter over the long term. SEG-1:...
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1-8-25 Is the January Barometer Broken?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today is the 5th Trading Day of January, and as go the first five days of the year, so goes the month of January, and so goes the rest of the year...according to the January Barometer. We are in the middle of the January Barometer: If markets close higher today, we will have successfully created a positive first-five-days-of-the-year. But just barely. Note: We failed the Santa Claus Rally, we are threatening to close lower today (Dow Futures are down during this recording), and today's result will trigger the second leg of the January Barometer. HOWEVER: In 2024, we had a negative First Five...
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1-7-25 Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As we enter 2025, the financial markets are optimistic. That optimism is fueled by strong market performance over the last two years and analyst’s projections for continued growth. However, as “Curb Your Enthusiasm” often demonstrates, even the best-laid plans can unravel when overlooked details come to light. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn discuss five reasons why a more cautious approach to investing might be warranted in 2025, plus client questions and viewers' emails. Economic data coming out this week for last month will be revised by March; what's the effect of less Government...
info_outlineEconomic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity.
SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July
SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment
SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time
SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/
"The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/
"Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/
"Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-
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Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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