3-23-26 200-DMA Broken – Bear Market or Buy Signal?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 just broke its 200-day moving average. Is this a bear market signal or a historic buying opportunity? The answer depends on a clear set of warning indicators – and right now, only two of six are flashing red. Lance Roberts comments in real-time as news of a delay in miliary strikes on Iran power stations affects pre-market action. Lance also breaks down every 200-DMA break since 2000, separating the seven sustained crashes from the five whipsaw recoveries. The data gap is stark: average 12-month return after a sustained break is -4.0%, versus +19.8% after a brief one. We walk...
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3-23-26 Trump-Iran News Reverses Futures | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets confirmed a break below the 200-Day Moving Average on Friday — amplified by Options Expiration Day selling. Then a single headline changed everything. During this live pre-market update, news broke that President Trump was postponing military strikes on Iranian power plants — instantly reversing market futures and setting up a significant bounce at the open. This is exactly why knee-jerk reactions can destroy your trading account. One headline. One move. Markets potentially back above the 200-DMA. Stay disciplined. Stay informed. Watch before the open. Subscribe for daily...
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3-20-26 Tax Strategies That Actually Save You Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most people think about taxes once a year. Smart investors think about them every year. Richard Rosso & Sarah Buenger break down the critical difference between tax preparation and true tax planning, and why that distinction could be worth thousands of dollars to your portfolio over time. We'll walk through real-world anonymous case studies from our client work, including how we helped one client sell nearly half of a concentrated stock position while staying entirely within the 0% capital gains bracket. We also cover Roth conversion timing, IRMAA bracket management, tax-efficient...
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3-19-26 Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The private credit market has exploded from under $500 billion a decade ago to $1.2 trillion domestically and $1.7 trillion globally — and stress is building fast. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down exactly what private credit is, who the major players are, and why rising credit stress could force the Federal Reserve's hand — even if inflation and unemployment don't justify it. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:02 - Cash & Girl...
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3-19-26 Markets Flail as Rate Cut Hopes Fail | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Hot inflation data sent markets lower Wednesday, killing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 and leaving the Fed firmly on hold. Now markets are testing the critical 200-day moving average (200-DMA) — a level that has provided support for 214 consecutive days. Before you make any moves, here is what you need to know: Markets have worked off a significant portion of their overbought condition, but are not yet in oversold territory. A break of the 200-DMA alone is NOT a sell signal. Watch for a failed rally back to the 200-DMA — that is your true warning. We are in a...
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3-18-26 Q&A Wednesday: Open Season
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the most pressing financial topics shaping markets and personal finance decisions right now. We open with an analysis of current selling pressure and what it signals for equity markets, then dive deep into why credit spreads deserve your attention as a leading indicator of risk. We make the case for why waiting for S&P 6,900 could cost you opportunity, and offer a teaser on the growing private credit space. From there, we tackle real estate investment trusts and AG&C — examining whether current valuations finally make them worth buying. We...
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3-18-26 Rebalance Now Before the Rally Fades | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are pointing toward 6,800 this morning as momentum and relative strength improve. The reflexive rally we called last week is taking shape — and that creates a rebalancing opportunity, not a reason to chase. Don't wait for 6,900. Pick the neighborhood, not the house. Use the resistance zone around 6,800–6,900 as your selling area. Peak-to-trough has been roughly 5%; if your portfolio dropped more than that, you're carrying too much risk. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version...
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3-17-26 Fixing Your Broken Emergency Fund
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is your financial plan built to survive a market crash — or a $5,000 emergency? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down what retirees and younger workers both need to know about protecting their money when the economy sends mixed signals. Whether you're protecting a nest egg or just starting to build one, this episode gives you a practical framework for financial resilience — no matter what the market does next. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO...
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3-17-26 Market Bounces Off 200-DMA — Rally or Trap? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets Bounce Off 200-DMA — Is a Rally Building or Is This a Bull Trap? Markets tested the critical 200-Day Moving Average and bounced — but is this a real recovery or a relief rally? In today's pre-market breakdown, we cover what the charts and sentiment data are telling us right now before the opening bell. In This Video: Why record ETF short levels signal maximum market pessimism What buying volume at key price levels reveals about institutional behavior Why we're still saying: use any rally to reduce risk Oversold momentum and RSI conditions building a rally setup Why oil prices and...
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3-16-26 Oil Shock - Markets Reprice Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Oil volatility is shaking global markets after disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered the largest modern oil supply shock. Crude briefly surged above $100 as geopolitical tensions escalated, sending volatility across equities, credit, and currencies. Lance Roberts discusses oil volatility, market technicals, private credit stress, and the key risks investors should be watching next. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Weekend Article Recap; Q4 GDP Revision 5:11 - Market Performance in...
info_outlineEconomic Reports affected by Hurricanes Beryl & Debbie; market sell off continues. Inflationary data is still there; unwinding of Yen Carry Trade continues w/volatility. Lance recites a brief history of market crashes, causes & effects. The market correction actually started in July at peak; trapped-longs sold into market rally as exuberance reverses. Earnings Season has delivered a mixed back; 92% of companies have reported, opening buy back windows for business. Consumer sentiment feedback loop affects Fed decision-making; what the Yen Carry Trade does for market moods. The differential in interest rates between the Yen & the Dollar is shrinking. The Fed is reactive...and trapped. Lance & Michael discuss the Sahm Rule recession indicator: This time may be different. Recessions are back-dated by as much as 12-months. Is the economy weakening or normalizing? Indicators are often at odds with one another. YouTube Chat Q&A: Estate Tax Exemptions & Bonds; Is it too soon to short TLT? Eli Lilly & Yen Carry Trade: Where did all the "fast" money go? Liquidity Indicators in conflict: How to accurately measure? Fear dries-up liquidity.
SEG-1: A Brief History of Market Crashes; the Correction Started in July
SEG-2: The Feedback Effect of Consumer Sentiment
SEG-3: The Sahm Rule: Maybe Not This Time
SEG-4: YouTube Chat Q&A: Shorting TLT, Liquidity Indicators
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHVg-HJq5Gs&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=5s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Is The Underappreciated Economic Engine"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/confidence-is-the-underappreciated-economic-engine/
"The Sahm Rule, Employment, And Recession Indicators"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-sahm-rule-employment-and-recession-indicators/
"Yen Carry Trade Blows Up Sparking Global Sell-Off"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/yen-carry-trade-blows-up-sparking-global-sell-off/
"Inversion Of Yield Curve Finally Reversing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Exuberance Reverses" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NhhxNaLDDaA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-
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Our previous show is here: "Is the Crisis Over?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZWdk9bCH5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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