10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor Judgement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy...
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10-3-24 Market Sell Signal Imminent
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold down over 1%, but then rallied towards the end of the day with institutional buyers, which has been the markets' nature of late. There is still good buying demand. Markets have retested July's highs and bounced off in a classic retest of a breakout. The important thing would be to see if markets can hold that position, but futures this morning are a bit lower. If the markets cannot hold at this level, we're likely to get a little bit deeper correction in a test of either the 50- or 100-DMA. If markets close lower today, we'll trigger a MACD Sell Signal from a fairly high level,...
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10-2-24 Shutdown, Strikes, & Volatility: Safeguarding Your Portfolio Now
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A brief recap of the VP-debate; market futures are lower in search of a catalyst, and dislike the uncertainty preceeding an election. Markets have pulled backk thanks to investor exhaustion; Oil prices are on the rise amid escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, creating short-term risks until resolved. The Port Strike isn't 'the thing' that will trigger markets. Look for alternative shipping as opportunities in which to invest (Daggett makes Jimmy Hoffa look good). The Status of Social Security: What happens if SS benefits are cut? Financial planning should not include/depend upon SS....
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10-2-24 Volatility Rises as Correction Nears
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off in a pullback of investor exhaustion, and the first crack in an upward trend, on the back of the Israel/Iran hostilities' acceleration. The 20-DMA will be the first test of support for markets, and could set markets up for a little bit bigger decline; the 100-DMA is the running support line presently. It is entirely possible markets could trade lower heading into the election, which would set things up nicely for a post-election rally into the end of the year. Crude Oil had a very big jump on Tuesday, spurred in part by Middle East tensions, but we think the commodity will run...
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10-1-24 How Long Can the 'Everything Market' Last?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's a big news week: The Dock Workers' strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since the 1950's. A correction at this point would be healthy for markets. We think there will be a 3- to 5% correction before elections, creating room for markets to rally into year's end. Lance's rant on the Coffee Pod scam, and the SEC doesn't have far...
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10-1-24 Moving Averages Pull Prices Back in Line
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets ended the month of September trading in negative territory for much of the day. Institutional end-of-the-quarter buying at the end of the day boosted stocks to close higher on the day. On a short term basis markets are functionally extended. We're now in the space where markets gain and then stall, and then gain and then stall, again. Markets are now well-deviated from their 100-DMA. But moving averages are like gravity, and will pull prices back in line. Markets are not on a sell signal yet, but we expect to see one sooner than later. It would not be surprising to see a bit of a...
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9-30-24 Navigating a Confidence Dichotomy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there's lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese government stimulus. Earnings outlooks will matter going forward. Oil prices are getting thrashed, with lots of short-selling over the last five weeks. Lance shares dog tales of Gunner & Sniper. With massive money inflows, liquidity is primary...
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9-30-24 Get Ready for Earnings Season Tomorrow
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings season begins tomorrow, and the stock buyback window closes until the end of October. There's really nothing wrong with the markets following August's correction. Markets are getting very over bought relative to the 20- and 50-DMA, with decent divergences from the moving averages. And any time you see such divergence away from the daily and weekly moving averages, it is inevitable that things will correct. If earnings come in strong, that will help; but outlooks are what will matter most: What are companies thinking about the future? There is a close corellation between the annual...
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9-27-24 Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the markets hate uncertainty). With the ebb and flow of markets, we make adjustments on the fly, not per formula. Interest Rates & Real Estate: As rates come downm, time to buy or refinance? How Mortgage Rates and Fed Rates behave; patience...
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9-26-24 Bull Steepener Alert: How Agency REITs Can Supercharge Your Portfolio
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's own AI investments(?) are doing verrry well. Markets' short term Cup & Handle formation confirmed Wednesday; this is now the second-biggest year for equities inflows since 2014. However, there are negative divergences from market trends indicating...
info_outlineMarkets generated a rather disappointing rally on Monday, giving up about half of its gains by the end of the day. The good news: Markets closed positive, bounced off the 100-DMA, and were over-sold on a relative strength basis. That initial bounce off support indicated markets are clearly not out of the woods yet, still on a sell signal, indicating weaker prices are still ahead. This will suppress any positive action until the sell signal can be worked off. Markets initially failed at resistance at the 50-DMA. If markets cannot hold support at the 100-DMA, the next level downward will be at the August lows at the 200-DMA. We are currently in the mode of managing risk rather than trying to gain exposure in the markets. Unfortunately, no decent set up in Bonds has yet occurred, and those issues remain extremely over-bought; there's no opportunity now to increase exposure in bonds: It's difficult to add bonds to a portfolio now. If you own them, hang onto them.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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