9-9-24 Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 09/10/2024
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Trauma of Hurricanes revisited: Hurricane Alicia (1983) remembered as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida today; Lance shares his bizzare dream about aliens refuting Flat-earthers; why high interest rates are unsustainable. Fed rate cuts don't mean rates will go straight down. Why 4% rates cannot last for long. Markets rally amid price compression; what is sustaining markets, historically high, without any Fed liquidity injection. Analysts are still targeting S&P 6000 by the end of the year. NFIB members note borrowing rates at 8% are too high, and will erode economic growth and any...
info_outline 10-9-24 Opportunity to Buy Bonds is ComingThe Real Investment Show Podcast
Is the era of low interest rates over? Lots of videos being posted to that effect, that the economic data doesn't support higher rates, there's too much debt for higher rates, etc., etc. That doesn't mean that rates have to come straight down when the start to go lower. Well, rates have begun to fall, and we've had the predictable result of bonds selling off and bond yields moving higher. Friday's strong Jobs report also contributed a little knee-jerk reaction to push yields higher, as well. Bonds are currently on a sell signal, so if you've been looking for an opening to get into bonds, be...
info_outline 10-8-24 You Can't Avoid Risk - But You Can Manage ItThe Real Investment Show Podcast
The key to successfully managing money is managing risk. Economnic news is absent; no 50bps rate cut in November, thanks to a strong jobs report, and markets are adjusting to that reality. One off shoot of Jobs report shows more workers seeking secondary, part time employment to make ends meet. Markets sold off on Monday, as price compresion continues. Markets may be stuck untikl earnings season provides direction. Managing risk: A function of loss; Howard Marks on Risk: there is a symmetry of risk and volatility, of gains vs losses. You cannot quantify risk; the challenge is how to best...
info_outline 10-8-24 Volatility is Flashing a Caution LightThe Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off on Monday as part of a price compression process. Futures are pointing upward this morning, and markets need to hold levels today. We're on a sell signal and need to work off over bought positions. Earnings season will generate the next set of drivers as we head into the election. Mid-October thru the end of the month tends to be a bit weaker period. Meanwhile, volatility has been very quietly rising, which normally coincides with market correction. Three- to four- to five-percent corrections are very likely when it occurs as markets are going up. Hosted by RIA Chief...
info_outline 10-7-24 Millennial Earnings Season BeginsThe Real Investment Show Podcast
This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday's Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employment news, but that also pretty much killed any chance of a 50bps rate cut by the Fed. Markets are now in a consolidation period, setting up for a corrective cycle a head of the 2024 Election. Lance explains the bullish and bearish takes of...
info_outline 10-7-24 Are Markets Preparing for a Pre-election Correction?The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P rallied nicely Friday on a strong employment report, and surprisingly so; that eliminates the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in November. For us, if we're the Fed, and employment is that strong, we would cut rates at all. But that's just us. Markets rallied towards the top of the consolidation range. Today's opening looks to give up a chunk of Friday's gains, and as in previous consolidation patterns, it would appear markets are setting up for some type of corrective action within the next several weeks. (During election years, with the current set-up, markets typically get a...
info_outline 10-4-24 The Importance of Trusts in Financial PlanningThe Real Investment Show Podcast
Market preview & Fed possiblities as jobs numbers are releasaed today; anecdotal evidence that small businesses are making more credit inquiries to banks: A prelude to more growth? The Longshoreman's strike is suspended with a proposed 65% pay increase; raises the question of value in the cost of a college degree. The marriage of blue collar jobss to AI will present new opportunities with rewarding pay. Jon & Matt discuss aspects of financial planning, risk management, and portfolio strategy. Estate planning as a risk management tool; pecking orders & durable powers of attorney....
info_outline 10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor JudgementThe Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy...
info_outline 10-3-24 Market Sell Signal ImminentThe Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold down over 1%, but then rallied towards the end of the day with institutional buyers, which has been the markets' nature of late. There is still good buying demand. Markets have retested July's highs and bounced off in a classic retest of a breakout. The important thing would be to see if markets can hold that position, but futures this morning are a bit lower. If the markets cannot hold at this level, we're likely to get a little bit deeper correction in a test of either the 50- or 100-DMA. If markets close lower today, we'll trigger a MACD Sell Signal from a fairly high level,...
info_outline 10-2-24 Shutdown, Strikes, & Volatility: Safeguarding Your Portfolio NowThe Real Investment Show Podcast
A brief recap of the VP-debate; market futures are lower in search of a catalyst, and dislike the uncertainty preceeding an election. Markets have pulled backk thanks to investor exhaustion; Oil prices are on the rise amid escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, creating short-term risks until resolved. The Port Strike isn't 'the thing' that will trigger markets. Look for alternative shipping as opportunities in which to invest (Daggett makes Jimmy Hoffa look good). The Status of Social Security: What happens if SS benefits are cut? Financial planning should not include/depend upon SS....
info_outlineLance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barriers and resistance in the way of markets moving higher. This is not a good time to buy bonds. Lance and Jon look at what happens to stocks when a company is added to the S&P 500; why you should never track to an index: They're not reality. Wall Street wants you perpetually upset because money movement and emotions create fees. Indexes do not pay fees or taxes. Five steps you can take to mitigate portfolio risk. Lance and Jon answer e-mail query about portfolio management and reasonable expectations: Can you create high yields in a low interest rate environment?
SEG-1: Markets' Rally Disappoints
SEG-2A: What Happens When Stock is Added to the S&P 500
SEG-2B: Five Steps You Can Take to Mitigate Portfolio Risk
SEG-3: E-mail Q&A: Realistic Goals of Portfolio Management
SEG-4: Why Financial Planning is All a Big Guess
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDSbAB_oXtc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/
"Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/
"Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets' Rally Disappoints" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RnurWaljp8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "A Rough Start to September"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtRVT0cqwNg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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