9-11-24 What's Really Behind Stock Market Volatility
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 09/11/2024
1-21-26 No Time to Panic | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets broke lower on Tuesday, falling out of a consolidation wedge after weekend headlines reignited policy uncertainty. In the process, the market violated multiple technical support levels at once—including the 20-day and 50-day moving averages—triggering a short-term momentum sell signal and increasing volatility. While the downside move erased several layers of support in a single session, this is not the time for panic selling. Markets quickly shifted from overbought to oversold conditions, and history shows that moving-average violations are often followed by sharp reflex rallies....
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1-20-26 Is a House Still a Good Investment in 2026?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is buying a house still a good investment—or has the market pulled too much future return forward? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down the housing investment debate through a time-horizon lens, comparing housing to stocks, examining historical “win rates,” and explaining why transaction costs, leverage, and holding period matter far more in real estate than most buyers realize. 0:00 INTRO 0:19 - Moving into the Heart of Earnings Season 5:36 - Markets' Price Consolidation Breaks to the Downside 9:51 - Lance & Jonathan's Weekend Recap 11:36 - Collegiate Investors - Be Careful...
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1-20-26 Short-term Volatility Ahead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are breaking down from a rising wedge pattern, triggering a short-term momentum sell signal. Downside targets include the 50-DMA near 6,810 and the 100-DMA around 6,720—both important support levels to monitor. A 2–5% pullback is not unusual and is part of the normal investing process. While selling pressure may continue for a few sessions as sellers move lower to meet buyers, this does not signal the start of a major market downturn. Tariff headlines may create short-term noise, but they do not materially alter forward earnings expectations for major U.S. companies or the broader...
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1-19-26 The Metric that Matters - The Michael Green Interview
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What really matters for markets in 2026—and why are most forecasts focused on the wrong metrics? Lance Roberts visits with Simplify Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist, Michael Green, CFA, to examine the structural changes inside today’s markets that are reshaping price discovery, volatility, and risk. From the rise of passive investing and ETF dominance to the growing disconnect between fundamentals and flows, the mechanics of how markets trade have changed dramatically. We explore why small-cap and mid-cap stocks remain the most economically sensitive indicators, how ETFs...
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1-16-26 Social Security Reform: Expansion or Cuts?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Congress is debating major changes to Social Security—and the outcome could mean benefit expansion or future cuts. With trust fund shortfalls projected by 2033, lawmakers have introduced a wave of bills aimed at increasing benefits, changing cost-of-living calculations, and redefining how and when Americans claim Social Security. Richard Rosso breaks down the key Social Security reform proposals currently circulating in Congress, what they would change, why most face steep political hurdles, and what these debates mean for retirement planning in the years ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Social...
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1-15-26 Silver’s Surge: Bubble or Fundamentals?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Can we classify Silver as a microbubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz take a disciplined, valuation-driven look at silver through the lens of post-2020 micro-bubble cycles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Oil Prices Slide, CPI/PPI Moderate 8:15 - Index Performance Comparisons 14:33 - PPI/CPI Increase rate Cut Expectations 17:19 - The Risks of Reflation 20:48 - GDP Predictions? 23:08 - The Saga of the Silver Bubble 26:18 - Meme Stocks & SPAC's 29:57 - What's the Narrative in Silver? 31:41 - Silver, Gold, & Commodity Supply-Demand Imbalances 34:03 - Unlike God, Silver is a Critical...
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1-15-26 Market Rotation Is Broadening — But Risks Remain | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are quietly broadening beneath the surface. While mega-cap stocks continue to dominate headlines, money is rotating into small caps, mid caps, value stocks, and even international equities. The S&P Equal Weight Index just set a new all-time high—even as the S&P 500 lagged—highlighting improving market breadth. Small caps and mid caps have closed part of their long-standing performance gap with large caps, but meaningful differences remain. The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 are still trailing the S&P 500, and small caps remain highly sensitive to economic slowdowns....
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1-14-26 Q & A Wednesday - Your Money & Market Questions Answered
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your real-time questions directly from our YouTube live chat window, and break down today’s most important money, market, investing, and retirement topics. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Big Banks' Earnings & Trading Revenue 4:00 - Markets Decline off All-time Highs 9:05 - Fun with Charts - Understanding Market Dynamics 16:17 - Contributing to Roth in Retirement? 20:27 - SimpleVisor Alerts 21:10 - Determining Percentage of Assets to Own vs Sell 26:15 - Thoughts on Trump Plan to use Retirement Money for Home Purchases 30:01 - You never Own Your House 33:48 -...
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1-14-26 Markets Compress Near All-time Highs | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pulled back from all-time highs, not in a bearish way, but through tightening consolidation. Price is compressing between a rising support line and a clearly defined ceiling, creating a narrowing trading range that historically resolves with a decisive move. The key question now is direction. A downside break could bring a retracement toward the 100-day moving average, while an upside resolution could push prices toward the 7,100 area. Over the next two to four weeks, a downside resolution would not be surprising—but any move will still require a catalyst. Market breadth continues to...
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1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity? Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability. Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global...
info_outlineToday marks the 23rd anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks; it's Inflation Day and post-Debate day. Market volatility tends to increase prior to Presidential elections; why policy matters. CPI is expected to show a .2% increase (it's ALWAYS expected at .2%!) Oil prices are a function of supply & demand. CPI will most impact markets today, and factor into the Fed's rate decision next week. Volatility is the big market driver. What inflation is telling us about the economy; why falling inflation is not good for earnings. How companies are cutting wages (without cutting wages); Danny rants on the high cost of hotel coffee. A critique of government spending, and why "The Inflation Reduction Act" was anything but; a look at sector-based bankruptcies and the Solar Energy industry. Stop investing in companies you know nothing about. Private investors and private money are more efficient than government investments: The Day Care conundrum. A word or two on the presidential debate; 6 income alternatives for falling rate environment; demand notes; Risk annuities; closed-end funds. At what point should you liquidate bonds?
SEG-1: Markets Increase Volatility Pre-Election
SEG-2: What Inflation is Telling Us About the Economy
SEG-3: Why "The Inflation Reduction Act" is Mis-labelled
SEG-4: Income Alternatives as Rates Fall
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D5D2sxuJwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s
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Register for our Retirement Blueprint presentation:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/993906249347?aff=oddtdtcreator
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"S&P 500 – A Bullish And Bearish Analysis"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sp-500-a-bullish-and-bearish-analysis/
"Risks Facing Bullish Investors As September Begins"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/risks-facing-bullish-investors-as-september-begins/
"Long-Term Signals Suggest Lower Forward Returns"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "CPI: Will or Won't the Fed Cut Rates?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iArd3ktAw90&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Five Actions You Can Take to Minimize Risk"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDSbAB_oXtc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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