RIS 3-10-25 MONDAY Best-of Show
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance is on vacation this week. This compilation show includes a conversation about estate planning and the consequences of failing to properly plan; "If I were President, the first thing I would do..." Lance and Jonathan solve all problems: Cleaning up D.C. first, and the changes are not going to be without pain; and a send-off for Gene Hackman, , and Lance and Michael discuss creating liquidity out of debt, and the Fed's Reverse Repo tool. Recent Fed minutes hint at tweaking liquidity ahead of debt ceiling adjustments. Investor psychology and levels of bearishness not unlike pre-crash...
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3-7-25 There is More to College Funding than Meets the Eye
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We introduce Sarah Buenger, CFP, our in-house college funding expert and Professor of Financial Planning at Texas A&M University. Richard discusses diversification in portfolios vs "sext" stocks, sector rotation, and the Fed's Jobs preview; sentiment doesn't match the markets. Tariff s vs protectionism: disruption is what markets dislike the most. A discussion about social security, and DOGE vs SSA: What is likely to happen? Setting SSA COLA to GDP-E for Seniors; the wisdom in waiting to take SS. Planning for college; FAFSA, Learning Credits, and scholarships. Never fully fund...
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3-6-25 Never Let a Good Crisis Go to Waste
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance is preparing for Spring Break Vacation next week (3/10-14); Market rallied Wednesday on possible delays of tariff impositions on Automobiles. Lance reviews potential new tax deductions like we used to have. Deportation forecasts: Previous events did not crash markets. Investor and positioning sentiment are still very negative. (At this point in the broadcast, our streaming connection was lost; the complete audio can be heard on our various audio podcast platforms, listed below.) Is the economy slipping, or are the markets just anxious? Lance and Michael talk about the Atlanta Fed GDP Now...
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3-6-25 Markets to Retest 200-DMA
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are looking to open lower, but there's no, one reason as the cause. We'll retest the 200-DMA again today: Be careful of breaks in support! When these have occurred in the past, they've turned out to be buying opportunities, not selling opportunities. Concerns over negative GDP data should improve as new data is received. This is hinted in improving ISM Services and Manufacturing data, which will feed into the next Atlanta GDP report, and provide positive input. It is also likely that a better-than-expected Employment Report will be seen on Friday. Be careful when everyone is negative:...
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3-5-25 Tariff Turmoil
The Real Investment Show Podcast
President Donald Trump's speech last night kept us up late, running nearly two-hours outlining his plan to offset lower tax revenues with tariffs on other countries. A discussion on reciprocal tariffs; how markets work; where earnings growth comes fromn. Markets are now re-pricing the impact of tariffs (Chart of stock valuations heat map). Lance and Danny discuss the ebb and flow of the U.S. Dollar, and buzzword headlin-generators: The latest is Stagflation. Most do not know the three elements required: Low growth, high inflation, and high unemployment. The Tru-flation index has collapsed, and...
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3-5-25 Have Markets Found the Bottom?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are down 6% and very over sold: This is the time to look for opportunities. The problem with finding market bottoms is the time it takes to work it out. Significantly, markets tested the 200-DMA on Tuesday for the first time in a long, long time. There is a cluster of resistance around 5900 on the S&P: The 20-DMA, the 50-DMA, the 100-DMA are all clustered there. It will be tough for markets to rise above that level. It is likely markets will be trapped within a certain range for a while. The markets' over sold condition has pushed the MACD indicator to a low level we haven't seen...
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3-4-25 What To Do When Everyone is Bearish
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Tariffs take effect as markets are in mid-correction; investors are extremely bearish. Tariffs only impact production side; consumers may choose not to buy at elevated prices. Lance and Jonathan discuss avocados vs mangos. Markets continue to trade in a broad, large range; markets are seeking an interim bottom. Markets are over sold, and money flows are reversing. Is Christina Lance's Agent 99? Trade Wars, Tariffs, & Inflation: Trade War II effects (charts); Bullish sentiment is at lowest level since 2022; loss aversion psychology. A look at diversification and the role of Bonds; how we...
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3-4-25 Markets Adjust for Tariffs
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets rallied on Monday, but declined over all, and are looking to open lower this morning. We are still within a very large consolidation range in which markets have been operating since last November. We're down about 4% from market highs, which may feel pretty bad (and this is where investors get on the wrong side of the trade); we're over sold with a very deep sell signal, and this is the point where markets typically start to look for an interim bottom where you get a tradable rally. Such event is an opportunity to re-balance risk (sell) in preparation for the next downturn. So we...
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3-3-25 Will Markets March Ahead?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will Donald Trump's Crypto-reserve translate into a boon for tech stocks and cryptocurrencies? The Atlanta Fed GDP shows negative growth: This does not mean recessionary. Front loading of purchases ahead of tariff imposition will result in pullback from anticipated purchasing later in the year, affecting profits. March is a seasonally strong month. A look at the market rally and rotation trades; the economy is not bad, but pullbacks are coming from DOGE cuts in government spending and job losses, and the impact of fewer immigrants for hiring. (Where are most jobs now being created?) The...
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3-3-25 Negative Sentiment will Fuel Market Rally
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Welcome to the month of March, which tends to be a seasonally-stronger month of the year (November-May). March and April tend to be the stronger months among these. The last half of February was not a very pleasant experience. February re-balancing of pension funds resulted in a good bit of buying at the end of the day on Friday, providing a nice recovery off support. There has been extremely negative investor sentiment, and markets have been very over sold. This month will also see end-of-quarter re-balancing, and so markets are set up for a pretty good set up for a short-term, counter-trend...
info_outlineThe last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there's lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese government stimulus. Earnings outlooks will matter going forward. Oil prices are getting thrashed, with lots of short-selling over the last five weeks. Lance shares dog tales of Gunner & Sniper. With massive money inflows, liquidity is primary market driver. Lance discusses the components of our Greed/Fear Index; markets' pricing is based on earnings. The two measures of consumer confidence; The Conference Board and U. of Michigan; Consumer confidence and jobs vs stock prices. Expectations less Current Conditions: That's the dichotomy. Improving Market Breadth & Money Flows; when everyone is in the market, money chases money; sellers live higher, buyers live lower.
SEG-1: Earnings Season Begins Tomorrow
SEG-2a: Gunner & Sniper Dog Tales
SEG-2b: Money Inflows Continue: Liquidity is Main Market Driver
SEG-3: Two Measures of Consumer Confidence
SEG-4: Improving Market Breadth & Money Flows
RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8qRbIonRtU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Get Ready for Earnings Season Tomorrow" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2NaQU4oXC0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=3s
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Our previous show is here: "Is Micro-Retirement Right for You?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjPwPSI_rpI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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