10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor Judgement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 10/03/2024
12-30-24 MONDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-5
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a compilation of previously broadcast segments gathered from Monday (12/9), Tuesday (12/10), and Tuesday (12/17): Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. A plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation...
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12-27-24 FRIDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-4
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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RIS 12-26-24 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-3
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evovled during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...
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12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect,...
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12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lance reviews the ingredients comprising a correction: Extremely suppressed volatility, narrow market breadth, and declining momentum. On Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, markets sold off to...
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12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform better AFTER elections. Lance reveals a new temptation on his route to work each morning; Lance and Danny comment on the notion of dumping the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of 100% stocks for...
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12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Basic Materials and Energy sectors remain deeply oversold. Healthcare has been The Worst Performer across the board this year over concerns about what a new administration might mean for healthcare...
info_outlineA preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy gold! Market breadth in an everything market: Too much money chasing too few stocks. Lance & Michael discuss the problem of asset selection vs ETF's.
SEG-1: Why a Weaker Jobs Report is Not Recessionary
SEG-2: FEMA Rant & JOLTS Preview
SEG-3: Hurricane Kirk & Asset Selections vs EFT's
SEG-4: Taking the Crystal Ball Challenge
RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0jagILd1Jc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"A Crystal Ball Isnt Enough: The Importance Of Context"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crystal-ball-isnt-enough-the-importance-of-context/
"Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/
"The “Everything Market” Could Last A While Longer"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/
"Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Sell Signal Imminent" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsfKpn4lJU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Shutdown, Strikes, & Volatility: Safeguarding Your Portfolio Now"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2840s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
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https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
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