10-3-24 When a Crystal Ball Clouds Investor Judgement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 10/03/2024
10-22-24 Is the Stock Market Party Over?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What does it mean when the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (a predictor of the next six months' economic activity) post's a negative .5 reading...while markets seem to be able to find no ceiling? Who's right? Markets continue to be "just fine," although a potential for pullback by the end of October or beginning of November is anticipated to provide a better entry point for portfolio exposure. Lance and Jonathan answer emails, like "Is the market party over?" The biggest factor will be the shift in liquidity; that money has to go somewhere. Which is better: 9% annual return or...
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10-22-24 The Market Is Doing Just Fine
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have now gone 6 weeks with gains without some kind of pullback or a negative week. Pay attention: The market is continuing in a rising-wedge pattern, and prices are becoming more compressed. Given that markets are over-bought on several levels, and volume in this rally is beginning to pullback, and the MACD indicator is slowing and starting to roll over, will likely break out to the downside. This will give us a bit of a correction by the end of the month, or early November, perhaps after the election. As mentioned yesterday, that would provide investors with a better entry point...
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10-21-24 Q3-Earnings Estimates Remain Optimistic
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings estimates remain exceptionally optimistic, raising the question of whether consumer spending can sustain present levels (the source of earnings!) Investors should be careful averages, and remember that records are recrods for a reason. Why we're still expecting acorrection; we've had six strong weeks in a row, and a seventh is not out of the question this week. Lance looks at where earnings are really occurring (in the Mag-7 companies); what happens if those top 10% companies cease growing? Earnings expectations are what move market prices; why Wall St. is the "sell" side, and...
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10-21-24 Markets Hitting Brand New Records This Year
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are hitting brand new records this year because they hitting levels which previously marked the peak of the market. Records are records for a reason. The seasonal buy signal was triggered last week, which typically suggests that markets will be high over the next six months, which is the seasonally-strong period of the year. That does not, however, mean that there cannot be a correction along the way. In fact, it should be expected: Markets are now up six-weeks in a row; a seventh consecutive week (this week) would make for a very long stretch. (We've done seven-weeks and...
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10-18-24 COLA Boost & Medicare Shifts: What You Must Know for 2025
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Richard & Jonathan recap their recent recruiting visit on the campus of Texas A&M University: There is hope for the next generation. Earnings season continues, discussion of Netflix and Lance's coffee rants. Anti-globalization & the China effect; the fallacy of International buys; "I love Lucy" & Vitametavegamin. Why fasting should be called slowing; Medicare Open Enrollment and changes in many plans: What happens when Medicare advantage plans go away; many supplemental benefits go un-used. Changes in Medicare prescription drug formularies. What happens if you don't make a...
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10-17-24 Volatility & The Market Climb: Should We Care?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales numbers today, and earnings recaps (so far) and previews; looking for an outsized seasonal adjustment to Retail Sales due to calendar anomalies; there's nothing overly concerning to markets. The big focus will be the election and it's outcome and control of House & Senate: The market hates uncertainty, and loves gridlock. Lance refutes rash of negative videos: Markets see nothing of concern. Market Bears are on parade, what does the rise in Volatility mean? The VIX is implied volatility: Will market move a lot or a little, but not in which direction. It is indicative of...
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10-17-24 Markets Will Trend Higher...Until they Don't
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Despite a plethora of negative videos proclaiming the imminence of market crashes, this market looks like 2007, and the end of the world is upon us (and there were plenty of headlines about a "soft landing" and a Goldilocks economy back then, too), markets currently are not suggesting any of that.: Markets have continued to make new highs, grinding along an upward trendline. Where does this leave us? We always caution against investing with reckless abandon, but there's also no reason to be overly bearish at this time. The trick to managing money is understanding that markets will trend higher...
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10-16-24 You Ain't Rich
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will the strength (or weakness) of the consumer be revealed in this week's Retail Sales report? Liquidity is continuing to flow into markets; if things are so good, why all the liquidity flows? Stock buy backs resume in 10-days, adding $6-B/day of more liquidity (which is NOT a return of capital to investors.) Energy stock exposure exoansion: As interest rates rise, so have oil prices. MACD Sell signal has been triggered, and we anticipate falling oil prices through the end of the year. Lance shares another Life w the Roberts' anecdote about son, Tommy; What does it take to be rich? Dealing...
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10-16-24 Why Oil Prices May Continue to Decline
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We previously added exposure to Energy stocks when they were all beat up, and following a correction in oil prices, we expected to see a pick-up. That has happened. As oil prices go up, so do interest rates because of the impact on inflation expectations from higher oil prices. That rally became very over extended and has now flipped with news that Israel will not attack oil fields in Iran. That, in turn, has triggered a fairly high-level MACD Sell signal, suggesting that oil prices could retract further over the next several months. That translated into a sell-off in Bond yields. The buy...
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10-15-24 Greed And How To Lose 100% Of Your Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales figures should be interesting, as retailers were stocking up ahead of the short-lived dockworkers' strike. Lance previews Thanksgiving at the Roberts' house, featuring brisket! Earnings week continues with a string of the most negative earnings revisions in a long while. Markets operating under a seasonal buy signal and an ever-upward trend: What could possibly go wrong? Lance discusses the importance of risk management in a bull market environment. How to lose 100% of your Money? Greed is a necessity fto build wealth; also must be optimistic & willing to take risk. The...
info_outlineA preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing anything. What will the Fed do in response to poor jobs numbers? Interestingly, QT is conspicuously absent from latest Fed discussion notes. Market Breadth continues to soar. You can't make this up: Hurricane (James T.) Kirk: this wlll be comedy gold! Market breadth in an everything market: Too much money chasing too few stocks. Lance & Michael discuss the problem of asset selection vs ETF's.
SEG-1: Why a Weaker Jobs Report is Not Recessionary
SEG-2: FEMA Rant & JOLTS Preview
SEG-3: Hurricane Kirk & Asset Selections vs EFT's
SEG-4: Taking the Crystal Ball Challenge
RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0jagILd1Jc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"A Crystal Ball Isnt Enough: The Importance Of Context"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crystal-ball-isnt-enough-the-importance-of-context/
"Tax Cuts – An Examination Of The 2017 TCJA Impact"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/tax-cuts-an-examination-of-the-2017-tcja-impact/
"The “Everything Market” Could Last A While Longer"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-everything-market-could-last-a-while-longer/
"Confidence Dichotomy – Consumers Vs. Investors"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Sell Signal Imminent" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndsfKpn4lJU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Shutdown, Strikes, & Volatility: Safeguarding Your Portfolio Now"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBW83seGZd8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2840s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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