Libsyn Directory

10-7-24 Are Markets Preparing for a Pre-election Correction?

Release Date: 10/07/2024

12-30-24 MONDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-5

The Real Investment Show Podcast

This is a compilation of previously broadcast segments gathered from Monday (12/9), Tuesday (12/10), and Tuesday (12/17): Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's. A plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation...

12-27-24 FRIDAY The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-4

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...

RIS 12-26-24 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-3

The Real Investment Show Podcast

12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2

The Real Investment Show Podcast

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...

12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1

The Real Investment Show Podcast

This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...

12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evovled during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...

12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect,...

12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lance reviews the ingredients comprising a correction: Extremely suppressed volatility, narrow market breadth, and declining momentum. On Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, markets sold off to...

12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform better AFTER elections. Lance reveals a new temptation on his route to work each morning; Lance and Danny comment on the notion of dumping the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of 100% stocks for...

12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Basic Materials and Energy sectors remain deeply oversold. Healthcare has been The Worst Performer across the board this year over concerns about what a new administration might mean for healthcare...

More Episodes

The S&P rallied nicely Friday on a strong employment report, and surprisingly so; that eliminates the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut in November. For us, if we're the Fed, and employment is that strong, we would cut rates at all. But that's just us. Markets rallied towards the top of the consolidation range. Today's opening looks to give up a chunk of Friday's gains, and as in previous consolidation patterns, it would appear markets are setting up for some type of corrective action within the next several weeks. (During election years, with the current set-up, markets typically get a correction before the election.) Markets typically rally about 4% during earnings season, but this time, markets have front-loaded the earnings season rally. Unless earnings are stellar and outlooks are strong, we could potentially see some choppiness and a correction to come. After the election, markets will position based on the winners, and prepare to rally into the end of the year.

Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vagz34iRCnA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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