10-24-24 Memory Inflation Warps Bond Yields
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 10/24/2024
11-4-24 The Presidential Election Cometh
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased Intel for $99-B and produced their own chips. But, no. investors should do nothing on this day before the election; any move you make could be wrong. RIP Quincy Jones & Peanuts the Squirrel; Earnings Season Beat Rates are still elevated 80% (w...
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11-4-24 Don't Do Anything Today
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Don't do anything today: Virtually anything you do today, ahead of the elections, could be wrong. There was a considerable amount of pre-election de-risking last week. Managers were saying, "I've had a good run, I'm taking money off the table," because no one knows the outcome of the election. On Thursday we saw a sell off, hit the 50-DMA, and that support held on Friday. No one wants to be exceptionally long at this point. We anticipate markets will be essentially flat by the end of the day. Markets are oversold on a short-term basis, and with Thursday's de-risking, markets are in a...
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11-1-24 Ten Money Smart Things To Do Before Year's End
The Real Investment Show Podcast
2024 isn’t over yet. So here are 10 smart money moves to make right now. Saving money should be a year-round endeavor, but life gets in the way just like anything else. So with 2024 coming to a swift, thankful end, take advantage of the fourth quarter to accelerate your financial acumen, bolster your balance sheet and successfully springboard into the new year. Danny and Matt share year-end financial planning tips , smart money moves, and tax-saving strategies for the end of the year; plus investment adjustments for year-end, and a personal finance checklist for 2024. SEG-1: Investors Are...
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10-31-24 Markets' Best Since 2018
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have now had the best 12-months risk-adjusted returns since 2018. Sadly, that is unsustainable. The S&P is not doing much, with very narrow price compression, and markets are quietly de-risking behind the scenes as the election draws near. Markets are holding support at the 20-DMA, but that could get taken out today. All of the algorithms are watching the 20-DMA. Upside in the markets is being limited by a sell-signal. (Just because there's a sell signal doesn't mean the markets are going to sell off; you're probably just not going to go up in price, because if you did, you...
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10-30-24 Why this Bull Market Feels Weird
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Halloween preview & earnings parade; pre-election bond market auction action. Markets are hedging a bit ahead of elections. The latest JOLTS report was weaker than expected - more evidence of a slowing economy? Meanwhile, consumer confidence continues to confound, bouncing up in the latest Conference Board Confidence Index reading, especially for forward expectations for stock prices into 2025. Lance reviews International, Emerging Markets, and Dollar performance. Markets "are not doing nothin'" until after the election. Lance & Danny discuss what happens after that. Political...
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10-30-24 Why No One is Willing to Buy or Sell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Conference Board's latest Consumer Confidence Survey shows an increase in consumer confidence, a nice bounce from the recent downtrend; both present and future expectation metrics increased. The overall survey remains low, but surprisingly, consumer confidence in stock prices over the next year is at an all-time high. Accordingly, markets continue to hold on around the 20-DMA. No one is really willing to buy or sell right now. In International Markets, not a lot going on, either. Emerging markets have been selling off after a nice rally. These have been a drag on diversified portfolios....
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10-29-24 Key Market Indicators for November 2024
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A barrage of earnings reports this week reveals companies are beating lowered expectations, and revenue is down. McDonald's foot traffic is off (and interesting economic barometer); the story is surely unfolding of an economy that is slowing down. What do markets sell signals tell us? There are two ways for markets to correct: Consolidation, or pull back in prices. Lance rants on the realities of stock buy backs, and a sidebar from Jonathan on coffee habits; How will markets behave if the election is contested? Markets are very long on risk assets ahead of election; paralysis by analysis: Does...
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10-29-24 Why Sell Signals Don't Mean Correction
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue to do their thing, still sitting on a sell signal, which is limiting upside. How can markets move up while under a sell signal? Sell signals don't necessarily mean markets correct, it just means markets don't go anywhere. Sell signals simply suggest there are more buyers than sellers, and things are beginning to slow down. Markets can correct in two ways: Either in consolidation or in a pullback in pricing. The 20-DMA continues to acts as very good support; this consolidation is working to eliminate equity risk heading into the election. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment...
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10-28-24 Streaks Of Bullish Wins Are Not Sustainable
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Wrapping up the Month of October and beginning the strongest period for markets, November - April; what could throw a wrench into the works? (How about an election upset?) Markets are positioning for a specific, anticipated outcome. Life with the Roberts': Child #4 accepted at Baylor! The Halloween dress-rehearsal. Markets' positioning for election outcome: What if...? Market risks to election outcome. Treasury Bonds are the best set up for election upset; there are decent opportunities to go "long" on energy stocks. Economic data released this week: The Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index is an...
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10-28-24 Markets Position for Election Winner
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have begun positioning for the winner of the 2024 Election. What we don't know for certain is who that winner will be...but trading actions we can see are clearly pointing to a win by a particular candidate by their positioning in certain groups of companies that would benefit from policies the winner might implement. Meanwhile, the S&P continues to grind its way higher, on a nice, upward trajectory ever since September. The 20-DMA is acting as a good trendline indicator for the markets. We are, however, on a sell signal, which is limiting advances somewhat. Markets appear to be...
info_outlineThe Conference Board's Economic Surprise Index gauges exactly that: How surprised economists are when things don't pan out as they expected. Like the economy doing better than they think it ought, under the current conditions. Economists are setting themselves up for disappointment; more Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck. Lance and Michael discuss market psychology and a subset of PTSD known as memory inflation: Things were better (or worse) than they actually were, which is affecting the Bond market, and the realities of inflation vs wages. Addressing chat window commentary: Headlines vs Data: Who should you believe? What we're doing with bonds; looking for a technical bounce. Look for a revision to estimates.
SEG-1: Dealing with Economic Surprise
SEG-2: Market PTSD & Memory Inflation
SEG-3: Headlines vs Data: Who Do You Believe?
SEG-4: What We're doing w Bonds
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, ww Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3xSgmwD84s&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=2&t=2104s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Memory Inflation Warps Bond Yields"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/memory-inflation-warps-bond-yields/
"Q3 Earnings Estimates Remain Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What the Rising Wedge Pattern May Mean " is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7uHTtKv5KI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Technical Analysis Techniques""
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPqRWYTO3Gk&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=2488s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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