12-13-24 Looking Ahead to 2025: Realize Gains ro Change Exposure?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are setting up for a Santa Claus Rally; inflation pressure remains. What will the Fed do next week, and what will Powell SAY? The impact of tariffs may not be too dire; optimism abounds on Wall Street. Danny & Matt discuss end of year RMD's and how to best handle non-spousal Inherited IRA distributions. Constant changes in IRS rules are difficult to follow; delaying distributions might not be a wise choice. The current tax code could sunset in 2026. Danny & Matt discuss one-time lump-sum gifts: No one wants to pay a death tax, but few are able to touch the $14-million ceiling...
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12-12-24 CPI Gives the Fed a Green Light for Rate Cut
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. Lance & Michael discuss the precarious premise behind Microsystem's Bitcoin strategy, what makes for value, and what happens when there's no more buyers. How did the Hunt Brothers'...
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12-12-24 The Pressure is On the Markets
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off towards the 20-DMA on Monday and Tuesday, as part of the portfolio rebalancing that normally occurs this time of year. Under-performing and under-weighted stocks have had rallies over the last few days, even as the rest of the market was selling off. Markets did see a bit of a bouce on Wednesday as managers bought and sold to achieve equilibirum. There are probaly another three or four days' worth of this kind of activity, so more sloppy trading to come. The Fed's aniticpate rate-cut announcment next week will set the stage for a nice Santa Claus rally into the end of the...
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12-10-24 Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's Ten Investment Rules, with a focus on #9: When all experts agree... Tax-loss Harvesting &...
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12-10-24 Will the Markets Re-balance?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
happen to the top 10-20% of the Russell 2000: All those high-momentum stocks that were up 50- to 90% this year were sold off because they were over weighted in portfolios, and this created a very big draw-down in momentum on Monday. Markets are flattish in the pre-open, and may achieve some recovery today, but markets are still fairly deviated from their moving averages. We are likely to trigger a sell signal today, which would additionally push markets lower heading into Christmas. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...
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12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows...
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12-9-24 Setting Up to Rally
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets performed well last week, continuing to rise to new highs on Friday. There is now a huge deviation from moving averages, so there's a real risk for correction...but no guarantee: Markets COULD continue to rally into the New Year. The Volatility Index is also suggesting the same potentiality. An uptick in volatility...and a market correction...would be absolutely normal. Any pull back will set us up for a year-end rally. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...
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12-5-24 Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirrow such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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12-5-24 Bitcoin Hits $100,000
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Big news overnight is that Bitcoin hit $100,000 with President-election Trump's appointment of pro-cryptonian, Paul Atkins, to return as SEC Chief. Consider, Bitcoin was at $60k back in October; this recent climb culminates a long period of consolidation. Caution should be the watchword, however, as Bitcoin is highly deviated from its long-term moving averages. Eventually, it will get a pullback. Technology also had a big breakout Wednesday, after a long period of consolidation following the Yen Carry Trade blowup. Markets are very optimistic, very bullish, which is moving asset prices...
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12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high;...
info_outlineMarkets have now had the best 12-months risk-adjusted returns since 2018. Sadly, that is unsustainable. The S&P is not doing much, with very narrow price compression, and markets are quietly de-risking behind the scenes as the election draws near. Markets are holding support at the 20-DMA, but that could get taken out today. All of the algorithms are watching the 20-DMA. Upside in the markets is being limited by a sell-signal. (Just because there's a sell signal doesn't mean the markets are going to sell off; you're probably just not going to go up in price, because if you did, you wouldn't have a sell signal.) Many investors are holding off doing anything until after the election. The problem with that is going to be playing catch up, regardless of which way the market reacts to the election results.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVTVr2sHG74&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=1s
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