11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market...
info_outline
11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying...
info_outline
11-20-24 Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Nvidia Day--markets will respond accordingly tomorrow. Expectations are high for earnings and forward guidance. Analysts are generally looking for lowered expectations in 2025, as President Trump faces a waning economy. Meanwhile, markets have had a good test of support at the 20-DMA. Volatility anticipated in a holiday-shortened trading week next week. Lance and Danny plead for planning ahead at the end of the year, so as not to pile EOY changes on at the last minute. Corporate profitability in 2025: Case studies with WalMart vs Target and the aftertaste of wokeism. Stock picking could...
info_outline
11-20-24 Will Markets End 2024 Even Higher Than Now?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Good action in the markets on Tuesday after testing the 20-DMA three times: Futures are higher this morning, so a follow through is expected. There is a short-term sell signal in place, however, which will likely limit upside. Expect a little more volatility over the next few days as trading is impacted by a holiday-shortened week for Thanksgiving. Despite that, markets should end higher than where they are now. Historically, whenever there's been a 20% return year by November (which we have had), markets end that year higher, 80% of the time. Caveat: Everybody is in the boat right now;...
info_outline
11-19-24 Yardini & The Long History of Prediction Problems
The Real Investment Show Podcast
WalMart reports it's close to profitability; expect some market chop this week; NVIDIA reports Wednesday evening, and markets will respond on Thursday. A look at the performance of the Top Ten Stocks: Everyone wants to be in on the US Markets. Markets on Tuesday dropped to bounce off the 20-DMA, and continue to run along the ever-rising trend line. Expect some volatility ahead of next month's Fed meeting and anticipated 25-bp rate cut. Watch out for a shift in language to a more dovish stance. Economist Ed Yardeni believes markets' upward momentum will continue, and has revised his...
info_outline
11-19-24 Will the Doves Return to the Fed?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets came down to touch the 20-DMA and bounced off of it; markets are trending along this upward trend range. We're about half-way through a correction, with markets having a little more work to do. Markets tend to perform better following Thanksgiving into the first two weeks of December. Expect volatility and a little chop; not much else to worry about. The Fed is expected to make a 25-bp rate cut at its meeting on December 18...unless they don't. That's the risk to reckon with. The key will be in the Fed's language, and whether it takes a dovish tone. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment...
info_outline
11-18-24 "Trump Trade" Sends Investors Into Overdrive
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in certain market areas where “Trump Trade” exuberance has likely exceeded the grasp of underlying fundamental realities. While investors were a bit skittish heading into the election, the clean Republican sweep of the Presidency, House, and Senate...
info_outline
11-18-24 Assets Keeping You Awake? Sell 'em!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Friday's market sell- off was the result of a big options expiration date. The post-election rally was a vertical spike, and that markets were so stretched from the 50-DMA, a return to earth was inevitable. Markets are working off their "overboughtedness," and are close to triggering a sell signal. Markets tend to rally after Thanksgiving and into the first two weeks of December. Choppy action should be expected going into the end of the year. While the trend into January appears to be positive, be aware of the risks. With interest rates bouncing up and down over the past two weeks, Bonds were...
info_outline
11-14-24 The Math Behind the MACD
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwilling to sell, expecting markets to continue to rise; Bitcoin is melting up, Gold is getting beaten up, the Russell 2000 enjoys a post-election pop. Lance covers YouTube Chat etiquette, and with Michael Lebowitz discusses the latest CPI print...
info_outline
11-14-24 Why Market Participants are Unwilling to Sell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off and then rallied back to close in positive territory; markets are holding on at a very high level: Participants are just unwilling to sell, expecting markets to climb even higher thru year's end. Analysts are very exuberant, seeing no problem with the S&P hitting 6,200 by the end of the year. Bitcoin is the poster-child for exuberance, melting higher in the post-election, now in the $91,000 realm. This is the best, speculative investment measure of risk. Bitcoin is extremely overbought. Gold, on the other hand, has gotten hit really hard since the election, trading down...
info_outlineWill the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes...until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin' on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally.Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It's hard to buy when it's unpopular. Why are Small Caps having a hard time: They're not growing earnings. Most sensitive to difficult economy. Understand what gives stocks long term growth; will economic growth slow to "normal" next year? Don't expect 20% grwoth in 2025. Markets' historical post-election performance & government stimulus; why you have about six years remaining to make as much money as your can before the end of the current, bullish market cycle. Ignore emotion in the media. Expectations for a contested election & congressional gridlock: Lance review historical market performance from various election outcomes. For now, we're waiting on the Fed, expected to lower rates another quarter-point this week. Reviewing employment data for retailers ahead of holiday shopping season (What Mrs. Roberts wants for Christmas) Turkey down & The Hallmark channel. Stocks we wish we had bought: Palantir, up 200% this year. Earnings preview: Ferrari, SuperMicro
SEG-1: Vote Policies, Not Personalities
SEG-2: Don't Expect 20% Growth in 2025
SEG-3: Why You Have Six Years to Make As Much Money As You Can
SEG-4: This, too, Shall Pass - Waiting on the Fed
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYkOUuP1e_Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
-------
Articles mentioned in this report:
"Election Day! Plan For Volatility"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-day-plan-for-volatility/
"The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/corporate-buybacks-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/
-------
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Table is Set for Post-election Rally" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opnKzoHrODs&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
-------
Our previous show is here: "The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isHueBB3EwY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
-------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
--------
SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
--------
Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to SimpleVisor:
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#ElectionDay2024 #MarketVolatility #ElectionInvesting #PortfolioProtection
#FinancialTrends #Election2024 #MarketVolatility #InvestmentStrategy #ElectionImpact #PortfolioPreparation #FederalReserve #JeromePowell #EmploymentDate #RetailSales #HolidayShopping #InterestRates #EarningsSeason #EarningsBeatRate #Palantir #Ferrari #SuperMicro #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing