12-3-24 What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. Lance and Jonathan discuss these lessons from history on today's show, plus a discussion on asset diversification, and what...
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12-3-24 Diversification Isn't What You Think
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P is back on a buy signal and is a bit overbought; about to be impacted by portfolio redistributions. Small- and Mid-caps have enjoyed a sharp rally but are now only back to where they were three years ago. (While the S&P has made 54 new highs this year, up almost 27% for the year and continuing to grow, Russell 2000 holders have gone virtually nowhere for the past three years.) Those who have been long-term holders in "allocated" portfolios would be wise to review the idea of "diversification:" Diversifying among asset managers is NOT diversification. Just holding a bucket of...
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12-2-24 Extreme Speculation Has Returned
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Welcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration picks and regulatory changes? High levels of market concentration will result in more volatility from regulatory disruptions. Market complacency in the past is a present risk; Lance looks at the impact of government spending, and a revealing chart of...
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12-2-24 It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are doing fine, grinding higher, back on a buy signal, and trading well above it's 50-DMA. We're expecting a pullback over the next couple of weeks as mutual fund distributions occur. The market is over-bought on a relative strength basis. The S&P Equal-weighted Index is also doing well, and has been playing catchup. It, too, is extremely over bought, and we expected to see a consolidation/pullback soon. This is a good time to clear out any laggards you may have in your portfolio, do some tax-loss harvesting before the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist,...
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11-26-24 Why Credit Spreads Matter
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Credit spreads can greatly assist in determining the risk of a correction or bear market by reflecting the perceived risk of corporate bonds compared to government bonds. The spread between risky corporate bonds and safer Treasury bonds remains narrow when the economy performs well. This is because investors are confident in corporate profitability and are willing to accept lower yields for higher risks. Conversely, during economic uncertainty or stress, investors demand higher yields for holding corporate debt, causing spreads to widen. This widening often signals investors are growing...
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11-26-24 Markets Touch 6,000
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P kissed 6,000, bounced briefly over, then fell, rose again, and finished at 5,970. L:ooks for a weak open this morning, and then another rally as markets again attempt to close above the 6k level. Big move Monday in Treasury Yields on news of Scott Bessent's nomination as Sec'y Treasury. Gold has had a great run this year but is starting to set up a pattern to drop off...corresponding with a decline in Yields and a strengthening Dollar. Markets are holding up well; mid-caps caught a huge rally Monday. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO ...
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11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market...
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11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying...
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11-20-24 Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Nvidia Day--markets will respond accordingly tomorrow. Expectations are high for earnings and forward guidance. Analysts are generally looking for lowered expectations in 2025, as President Trump faces a waning economy. Meanwhile, markets have had a good test of support at the 20-DMA. Volatility anticipated in a holiday-shortened trading week next week. Lance and Danny plead for planning ahead at the end of the year, so as not to pile EOY changes on at the last minute. Corporate profitability in 2025: Case studies with WalMart vs Target and the aftertaste of wokeism. Stock picking could...
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11-20-24 Will Markets End 2024 Even Higher Than Now?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Good action in the markets on Tuesday after testing the 20-DMA three times: Futures are higher this morning, so a follow through is expected. There is a short-term sell signal in place, however, which will likely limit upside. Expect a little more volatility over the next few days as trading is impacted by a holiday-shortened week for Thanksgiving. Despite that, markets should end higher than where they are now. Historically, whenever there's been a 20% return year by November (which we have had), markets end that year higher, 80% of the time. Caveat: Everybody is in the boat right now;...
info_outlineIn the aftermath of the 2024 Election, attention now turns to today's Fed announcement, with odds makers giving 96% chance of a quarter-percent rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are roiling as foreign investors try to position after the election. Managers are scrambling to re-risk in time for year-end reporting; Wednesday was a huge day for Small Caps. Lance and Michael discuss the frequency of Mexican Food, our up coming 2025 Economic Summit, and what investors should do in response to Tuesday's election. The results argue for the value in a diversified portfolio. Questions remain: Why was Gold getting crushed? What will Trump do? Will there be an economic surprise? A discussion of economic reporting, and prediction the NFIB Confidence Index will surge with the Trump win. Employment data, however, is slightly below average. Why is the Fed cutting rates? Watch for a wall of corporate debt coming due. We're in a "fine" economy; the Fed meeting may seem boring, but read between the lines. Will there be a Fed surprise? Half-percent rate cut vs NO rate cut? Watch for language changes in Fed statement. Trump Tariffs do not necessarily promote growth. Will we see '70's-style inflation? Can the Fed control the yield curve? (Operation Twist) Most of the Fed's sway is in what they say.
SEG-1: Post-election Analysis & Fed Meeting Preview
SEG-2: Election Reaction: What Do We Do Next?
SEG-3: Economic Reporting Preview
SEG-4: Fed Control of Yield Curve; Why is Gold Surging?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA3421RaEAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Why Is Gold Surging?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-is-gold-surging/
"Election Day! Plan For Volatility"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-day-plan-for-volatility/
"The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/corporate-buybacks-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Back! " is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb3hFtjlQ38&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Trump Wins!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY3WborUcsw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2973s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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