12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high;...
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12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What should you anticipate for your market playbook as 2024 comes to an end? The S&P has continued its steady trend along the 20-DMA, with a few tests of the 50- and 100-DMA's along the way. While we have had very low volatility this year, we're expecting a bit of a correction between the 8th and the 15th of the month. Likely nothing dramatic, just back to the 20-DMA. After that, portfolio managers will begin the process known as "window dressing:" putting the best possible performers on their books for positive year-end results. That will likely trigger a "Santa Claus Rally" into the...
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12-3-24 What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. Lance and Jonathan discuss these lessons from history on today's show, plus a discussion on asset diversification, and what...
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12-3-24 Diversification Isn't What You Think
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P is back on a buy signal and is a bit overbought; about to be impacted by portfolio redistributions. Small- and Mid-caps have enjoyed a sharp rally but are now only back to where they were three years ago. (While the S&P has made 54 new highs this year, up almost 27% for the year and continuing to grow, Russell 2000 holders have gone virtually nowhere for the past three years.) Those who have been long-term holders in "allocated" portfolios would be wise to review the idea of "diversification:" Diversifying among asset managers is NOT diversification. Just holding a bucket of...
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12-2-24 Extreme Speculation Has Returned
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Welcome back from Thanksgiving break: Is it time to initiate Christmas Bonds to help Retailers? While markts have performed well, expect some sloppiness heading into the end of the year. We'll have Black Friday and Cyber Monday results later this week. Meanwhile, markets continue to grind higher. What will be the effects of Trump Administration picks and regulatory changes? High levels of market concentration will result in more volatility from regulatory disruptions. Market complacency in the past is a present risk; Lance looks at the impact of government spending, and a revealing chart of...
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12-2-24 It's a Good Time for Portfolio Clean-up
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are doing fine, grinding higher, back on a buy signal, and trading well above it's 50-DMA. We're expecting a pullback over the next couple of weeks as mutual fund distributions occur. The market is over-bought on a relative strength basis. The S&P Equal-weighted Index is also doing well, and has been playing catchup. It, too, is extremely over bought, and we expected to see a consolidation/pullback soon. This is a good time to clear out any laggards you may have in your portfolio, do some tax-loss harvesting before the end of the year. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist,...
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11-26-24 Why Credit Spreads Matter
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Credit spreads can greatly assist in determining the risk of a correction or bear market by reflecting the perceived risk of corporate bonds compared to government bonds. The spread between risky corporate bonds and safer Treasury bonds remains narrow when the economy performs well. This is because investors are confident in corporate profitability and are willing to accept lower yields for higher risks. Conversely, during economic uncertainty or stress, investors demand higher yields for holding corporate debt, causing spreads to widen. This widening often signals investors are growing...
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11-26-24 Markets Touch 6,000
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P kissed 6,000, bounced briefly over, then fell, rose again, and finished at 5,970. L:ooks for a weak open this morning, and then another rally as markets again attempt to close above the 6k level. Big move Monday in Treasury Yields on news of Scott Bessent's nomination as Sec'y Treasury. Gold has had a great run this year but is starting to set up a pattern to drop off...corresponding with a decline in Yields and a strengthening Dollar. Markets are holding up well; mid-caps caught a huge rally Monday. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO ...
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11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market...
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11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying...
info_outlineThe markets' response to the election outcome, combined with Thursday's Fed rate cut: Markets love it, but half the country (metro areas) are not happy. Avoid knee-jerk responses; next year could be very different. What to do with Bonds: Know what your goal is. Rich & Danny discuss home-bias investing vs international markets: Where're you gonna go? Expect more volatility and more disappointment. Rich explains 'Goal Scooping:' Do it now. Markets love gridlock in D.C.; market performance with blue vs red waves. A discussion of the new Roberts' home vs the set of "Lioness..." Why COLA gets no respect; the compounding effect on COLA; why policy failures are expensive; the paucity of fiscal education today. How COLA is calculated; how to fix Social Security? Eliminate wage base. (Rich's Halloween review.) The value of a financial advisor: Grill prospective advisors; maximizing tax-effective diversification. How organized sports have become a big business...and a money grab on families' budgets.
SEG-1: Avoid Knee-jerk Responses to Election Results
SEG-2a: Home Bias Investing vs International Markets
SEG-2b: COLA & The Compounding Effect
SEG-3: Why Policy Failure is Expensive
SEG-4: The Value of a Financial Advisor: Diversification for Taxes
Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4-vv0lKwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Why Is Gold Surging?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-is-gold-surging/
"Election Day! Plan For Volatility"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-day-plan-for-volatility/
"The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/corporate-buybacks-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Back! " is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb3hFtjlQ38&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Fed Day Arrives!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA3421RaEAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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