RIS 12-26-24 THURSDAY Best-of Show EPISODE-3
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirror such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
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12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evovled during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...
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12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect,...
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12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lance reviews the ingredients comprising a correction: Extremely suppressed volatility, narrow market breadth, and declining momentum. On Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, markets sold off to...
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12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform better AFTER elections. Lance reveals a new temptation on his route to work each morning; Lance and Danny comment on the notion of dumping the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of 100% stocks for...
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12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Basic Materials and Energy sectors remain deeply oversold. Healthcare has been The Worst Performer across the board this year over concerns about what a new administration might mean for healthcare...
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12-17-24 This is Nuts
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mirroring the S&P 500; the Magnificent 7 is responsible for the bulk of growth. It's a very narrow market. “When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think...
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Is the Market Really Doing That Great Outside of the Mag 7
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The stock market hitting all-time highs has been somewhat limited to only a few, major stocks. Sector by sector, things have not been quite as grand. Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and even Energy stocks have not followed the same trend as the S&P 500. Why is this? Because of the Mag-7 stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, etc. Market breadth is declining. Dig into any sector outside Technology, Communications, and Discretionary, and the market is not doing so great. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton,...
info_outlineThe markets' response to the election outcome, combined with Thursday's Fed rate cut: Markets love it, but half the country (metro areas) are not happy. Avoid knee-jerk responses; next year could be very different. What to do with Bonds: Know what your goal is. Rich & Danny discuss home-bias investing vs international markets: Where're you gonna go? Expect more volatility and more disappointment. Rich explains 'Goal Scooping:' Do it now. Markets love gridlock in D.C.; market performance with blue vs red waves. A discussion of the new Roberts' home vs the set of "Lioness..." Why COLA gets no respect; the compounding effect on COLA; why policy failures are expensive; the paucity of fiscal education today. How COLA is calculated; how to fix Social Security? Eliminate wage base. (Rich's Halloween review.) The value of a financial advisor: Grill prospective advisors; maximizing tax-effective diversification. How organized sports have become a big business...and a money grab on families' budgets.
SEG-1: Avoid Knee-jerk Responses to Election Results
SEG-2a: Home Bias Investing vs International Markets
SEG-2b: COLA & The Compounding Effect
SEG-3: Why Policy Failure is Expensive
SEG-4: The Value of a Financial Advisor: Diversification for Taxes
Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4-vv0lKwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Why Is Gold Surging?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-is-gold-surging/
"Election Day! Plan For Volatility"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/election-day-plan-for-volatility/
"The Presidential Election Cometh"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
"Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/corporate-buybacks-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Are Back! " is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb3hFtjlQ38&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Fed Day Arrives!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA3421RaEAY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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