12-24-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-2
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Wednesday (12/4) and Monday (12/9): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-23-24 The Best-of The Real Investment Show Episode-1
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This is a mash-up of previously broadcast show audio, from Tuesday (12/3) and Wednesday (12/4): Periods of extreme leverage and speculation are not new, and the outcomes have consistently been painful for unprepared investors. The late 1990s dot-com bubble serves as a prime example. Speculative bets on internet stocks drove valuations to extraordinary levels, with investors leveraging margin accounts and options to chase gains. When the bubble burst, the Nasdaq lost nearly 80% of its value, leaving leveraged traders especially vulnerable to devastating losses. On being Contrarian: Markets have...
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12-20-24 What the Trump Win Means for Your Taxes
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Heads-up: We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. Rich & Danny's final live show of the year starts with coverage of Tariffs, inflation vs deflation, and Jerome Powell's performance as Fed Head. Being cautiously optimistic: We've been living in a government-driven economy: Markets aren't red or blue; they're green. How estate planning may evovled during the Trump presidency; will the SALT deduction...
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12-19-24 Did the Fed Steal Christmas?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're on vacation for the next two-weeks starting Monday (12/23); audio podcasts will be available on iTunes, Spotify, and a host of other audio platforms. Check our website, www.realinvestmentadvice.com for complete links. The House's Continuing Resolution fails to pass muster, thanks to pressure from president-elect Donald Trump and the emerging D.O.G.E. team. Meanwhile, the Fed cuts rates, as expected, but adds a hawkish slant to their language, and markets shed 3% on Wednesday. Lance & Michael discuss whether the Fed has stolen Christmas in this fashion, dealing with the lag effect,...
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12-19-24 The Fed is Never Right
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve cut rates 25-bp, as expected, but the language was more hawkish than anticipated, and the Fed's "Dot Plot" of anticipated rate cuts for 2025 suggested fewer incidents of rate trimming next year. That took a bit of juice out of the punch bowl and spooked the markets. But remember, the Fed is never right about anything, and these predictions are the worst on anything they do. Lance reviews the ingredients comprising a correction: Extremely suppressed volatility, narrow market breadth, and declining momentum. On Wednesday, following the Fed announcement, markets sold off to...
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12-18-24 Dump the 60/40 for 100% Stock Retirement Portfolio?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Fed Day with it's much anticipated rate cut; what will matter more is the Fed's dot-plot and comments on expectations for 2025. Meanwhile on Wall Street, sloppy trading continues as fund manager rebalance portfolios. Markets are sitting on the 20-DMA and holding firm. The Healthcare Sector is the year's worst performer: Will it offer the most opportunity in 2025? This sector tends to perform better AFTER elections. Lance reveals a new temptation on his route to work each morning; Lance and Danny comment on the notion of dumping the traditional 60/40 portfolio in favor of 100% stocks for...
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12-18-24 Opportunities Ahead in Beaten Down Stocks?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are sitting right on the 20-DMA, holding support. As the flirting continues within a trading range, watch for a push higher today. However, there is still some selling-off to be done, and we may see some of that this afternoon following the Fed's announcement. This is part of the set up to get markets to rally into the New Year. This has been a really sloppy trading week...as expected. Basic Materials and Energy sectors remain deeply oversold. Healthcare has been The Worst Performer across the board this year over concerns about what a new administration might mean for healthcare...
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12-17-24 This is Nuts
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Retail Sales numbers this week will feed into expectations for 2025. Fed meeting tomorrow: Cut and pause, or cut and slow? Employment revisions are also due, but markets won't care. The stock market is still hitting all time highs, but that's not necessarily the case, sector by sector: Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Energy are not mirroring the S&P 500; the Magnificent 7 is responsible for the bulk of growth. It's a very narrow market. “When you sit down with your portfolio management team, and the first comment made is “this is nuts,” it’s probably time to think...
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Is the Market Really Doing That Great Outside of the Mag 7
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The stock market hitting all-time highs has been somewhat limited to only a few, major stocks. Sector by sector, things have not been quite as grand. Basic Materials, Industrials, Financials, and even Energy stocks have not followed the same trend as the S&P 500. Why is this? Because of the Mag-7 stocks, like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia, etc. Market breadth is declining. Dig into any sector outside Technology, Communications, and Discretionary, and the market is not doing so great. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton,...
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12-16-24 Why NFIB Optimism Matters
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Microstrategies joins the S&P 100 (just in time to crash?) Bitcoin continues to climb. The FEd will cut rates on Wednesday, but it's commentary and outlook are what will really count. Look for more volatility heading into the Fed meeting; the current rally may end by the 18th. Oil prices have been struggling, thanks to slowing economic growth = less demand. Gold is over-bought, working through sell signals. Meanwhile, the US dollar is like a rocket ship. Why the NFIB Small Business Index matters (and what it is saying); the NFIB Confidence Index; expectatinos vs actual sales; they always...
info_outlineEarnings Season is winding up, and The Next Big Report to come will be from NVIDIA on 11/20. Markets are on fire for now; what will the Fed do next? We're expecting one more rate cut in December, and then a pause. This week's inflation print could be higher due to YOY comparisons. Mutual Fund Distributions are coming in December; do not be alarmed! The post-election market is on a tear: invesetors are more exuberant than ever. Everybody is betting on everything to go up. A pullback to the 20-DMA is coming, setting up the market for a rally into year end. Lance and Jonathan discuss mutual fund distributions and anticipated portfolio variations. How will markets responsd to Trump policies and government employment levels. Lance's entreprenurial son offers "boyfriends" services for Thanksgiving. Lance & Jonathan parse the pro's and con's of bond portfolios. Investors can have any of the two: Capital appreciation, safety, or liquidity. The problems with 100% bond portfolio, and the impossibility of high income with no risk. Yield is a function of risk: There is no such thing as no-risk (things companies do to stay in business). Markets' exuberance comes with a price: Policy chances will have consequences. Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead?
SEG-1: Post-election Markets are on Fire
SEG-2: What Mutual Fund Distribution Time Means
SEG-3a: Tommy's Rent-a-Boyfriend Enterprise
SEG-3b: The Pro's & Con's of Bond Portfolios
SEG-4: There's No Such Thing as No Risk
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZtz1S3R3WQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2635s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Everybody's Betting on Everything Going Up" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AISGEpmtMI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why COLA Doesn't Get Any Respect"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4-vv0lKwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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