11-12-24 Irrational Exuberance...Again?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings Season is winding up, and The Next Big Report to come will be from NVIDIA on 11/20. Markets are on fire for now; what will the Fed do next? We're expecting one more rate cut in December, and then a pause. This week's inflation print could be higher due to YOY comparisons. Mutual Fund Distributions are coming in December; do not be alarmed! The post-election market is on a tear: invesetors are more exuberant than ever. Everybody is betting on everything to go up. A pullback to the 20-DMA is coming, setting up the market for a rally into year end. Lance and Jonathan discuss mutual fund...
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11-12-24 Everybody's Betting on Everything Going Up
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have been ON FIRE since the election: After touching support at the 50_DMA before Election Day, markets have taken off, and we're getting pretty over-extended now. Investors are more exuberant than ever on record. There are now some of the highest call options for Kathie Woods' Ark Fund, which we haven't seen in forever because it's been such an underperformer. Everybody's betting on Everything going up. Eventually, there's going to be a pullback, maybe to the 20-DMA, 5,820 on the S&P, and that would set up markets for a rally into the end of the year. We're suggesting...
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11-8-24 Why COLA Doesn't Get Any Respect
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The markets' response to the election outcome, combined with Thursday's Fed rate cut: Markets love it, but half the country (metro areas) are not happy. Avoid knee-jerk responses; next year could be very different. What to do with Bonds: Know what your goal is. Rich & Danny discuss home-bias investing vs international markets: Where're you gonna go? Expect more volatility and more disappointment. Rich explains 'Goal Scooping:' Do it now. Markets love gridlock in D.C.; market performance with blue vs red waves. A discussion of the new Roberts' home vs the set of "Lioness..." Why COLA gets...
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11-7-24 Fed Day Arrives!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
In the aftermath of the 2024 Election, attention now turns to today's Fed announcement, with odds makers giving 96% chance of a quarter-percent rate cut. Meanwhile, markets are roiling as foreign investors try to position after the election. Managers are scrambling to re-risk in time for year-end reporting; Wednesday was a huge day for Small Caps. Lance and Michael discuss the frequency of Mexican Food, our up coming 2025 Economic Summit, and what investors should do in response to Tuesday's election. The results argue for the value in a diversified portfolio. Questions remain: Why was...
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11-7-24 Markets Are Back!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P broke out to new, all-time highs following the election, and the sell signal is close to reversing. When it does (perhaps today), that will be the kick-off for the seasonally-strong period. Keep an eye on the trend line from August, about to intersect with 6,000; we're coming up on the bottom side of that, and the market will try to gravitate up to that by the end of the year. Watch for a strong open today, and bit of a sell off later in the day. Markets are back: That briefly oversold condition was completely reversed on Wednesday. We're back to over bought. Hedge fund managers...
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11-6-24 Trump Wins!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The 2024 Election outcome is sharply affecting pre-market, with Donald Trump's election sending stocks higher. The S&P trendline is aiming for the 6000 or 6100 level. The question that remains is whether markets can sustain that trend. This time is different from the previous Trump win: Interest rates are falling and tax rates are lower now; yet, there are still plenty of questions for investors: what will Trump's tax policy be? What will be the over all impact on the economy? (The Tax Foundation predicts .8% impact to GDP.) Still to be seen in the Congress: What happens with a...
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11-6-24 Does Trump Win Translate into S&P 6000?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Donald Trump's election win is sending stocks markedly higher this morning, especially in the Dow, where stocks there are more economically sensitive. All indexes are pushing higher ahead of the opening bell; the question is whether these levels can be sustained throughout the day. If you are, unfortunately, not in the market already, it's going to be tough to do so today. Small and Mid-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 are going to see big moves today on expectations for pro-economic friendly structures. The NFIB Index is also economically sensitive and has been under a lot of pressure for the...
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11-5-24 Election Day: Plan for Volatility
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes...until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin' on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally.Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It's hard to buy when it's unpopular. Why are Small Caps having a hard time: They're not growing earnings. Most sensitive to difficult economy. Understand what gives stocks long term growth; will economic growth slow to "normal" next year? Don't expect 20% grwoth in 2025. Markets'...
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1-5-24 Table is Set for Post-election Rally
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have been holding support at the 50-DMA level for the past several days, in a wait-and-see mode ahead of today's election. Markets are oversold on a short term basis, and still on a sell signal, which is limiting market upside. Traders have been de-risking portfolios until the outcomes are known. That sell-off has set up markets to rally post-election. Doesn't mean it's not going to get a little bumpy, though. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...
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11-4-24 The Presidential Election Cometh
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased Intel for $99-B and produced their own chips. But, no. investors should do nothing on this day before the election; any move you make could be wrong. RIP Quincy Jones & Peanuts the Squirrel; Earnings Season Beat Rates are still elevated 80% (w...
info_outlineEarnings Season is winding up, and The Next Big Report to come will be from NVIDIA on 11/20. Markets are on fire for now; what will the Fed do next? We're expecting one more rate cut in December, and then a pause. This week's inflation print could be higher due to YOY comparisons. Mutual Fund Distributions are coming in December; do not be alarmed! The post-election market is on a tear: invesetors are more exuberant than ever. Everybody is betting on everything to go up. A pullback to the 20-DMA is coming, setting up the market for a rally into year end. Lance and Jonathan discuss mutual fund distributions and anticipated portfolio variations. How will markets responsd to Trump policies and government employment levels. Lance's entreprenurial son offers "boyfriends" services for Thanksgiving. Lance & Jonathan parse the pro's and con's of bond portfolios. Investors can have any of the two: Capital appreciation, safety, or liquidity. The problems with 100% bond portfolio, and the impossibility of high income with no risk. Yield is a function of risk: There is no such thing as no-risk (things companies do to stay in business). Markets' exuberance comes with a price: Policy chances will have consequences. Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead?
SEG-1: Post-election Markets are on Fire
SEG-2: What Mutual Fund Distribution Time Means
SEG-3a: Tommy's Rent-a-Boyfriend Enterprise
SEG-3b: The Pro's & Con's of Bond Portfolios
SEG-4: There's No Such Thing as No Risk
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZtz1S3R3WQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2635s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Everybody's Betting on Everything Going Up" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AISGEpmtMI&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why COLA Doesn't Get Any Respect"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4-vv0lKwQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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