11-14-24 Why Market Participants are Unwilling to Sell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 11/14/2024
1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity? Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability. Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global...
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1-13-26 Market Turbulence - Earnings Test Ahead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With earnings season underway and markets stretched, conditions suggest rising market turbulence as price discovery accelerates. JPMorgan Chase kicked things off with a technical earnings miss after an extraordinary multi-year rally, highlighting how stretched both individual stocks and the broader market have become. While markets remain on a buy signal and continue to hover near all-time highs, deviations from key moving averages and increasingly overbought conditions suggest a near-term pullback would be healthy—and not unexpected. Financial heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and...
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1-12-26 Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface. Lance Roberts reviews key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing. We also examine the technical backdrop for...
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1-12-26 Volatility Risk Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets closed at new highs but are flashing short-term overbought signals. Unexpected weekend headlines around a potential investigation tied to the Fed introduced a volatility catalyst markets were not pricing in—especially at elevated levels. While the issue itself is unlikely to become a long-term concern, surprises are often what trigger near-term selling pressure. With earnings season approaching, volatility risk is more likely to come from corporate results than headlines. We discuss why managing risk, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for routine pullbacks matter when markets are...
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1-9-26 Big Beautiful Tax Breaks - 7 Changes for the 2026 Tax Season
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The 2026 tax season is shaping up to look very different—especially for retirees, near-retirees, and late-career workers. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down some major tax changes tied to the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and recent retirement legislation that could materially impact your tax planning strategy. From higher standard deductions and new age-based write-offs to expanded SALT limits, auto-loan interest deductions, and larger 401(k) catch-up contributions, these changes create both opportunities and planning traps. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Big D in the OBBB 3:52 -...
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1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched...
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1-8-26 Sector Rotation Quietly Begins | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pulled back modestly Wednesday after reaching an intraday all-time high, as afternoon selling trimmed gains. While overall market trends remain constructive and prices are well above key moving averages, leadership is beginning to shift beneath the surface. Healthcare—one of the most oversold sectors back in September—has now rotated into the most overbought territory, with standout strength from names like Google and Eli Lilly. Meanwhile, traditionally defensive areas such as Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate are now among the most oversold sectors, suggesting potential...
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1-7-25 Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are hitting all-time highs, earnings expectations are rising, and investors are navigating everything from oil prices to Roth conversions. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take live viewer questions and explore the themes investors are most focused on right now. Topics discussed include why earnings may be the primary market driver this year, what recent all-time highs signal for forward returns, and how capital flows are shifting across sectors and asset classes. We also examine oil markets—WTI pricing, energy stocks, Venezuela supply dynamics—and what the “sweet spot” for...
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1-7-26 Markets Hit Highs as Complacency Builds | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pushed to a new all-time high after successfully testing the 20-day moving average, with relative strength improving and momentum signals turning positive. However, following yesterday’s strong rally, futures are pointing slightly lower this morning. The Dow is approaching the psychologically important 50,000 level, while ten-year Treasury yields are beginning to ease after a recent surge. That shift could signal early rotation from equity risk back toward bonds. Volatility remains a key indicator to watch—despite November’s spike, the VIX is holding near 15, reflecting elevated...
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1-6-26 Financial Nihilism vs. Financial Planning
The Real Investment Show Podcast
More investors—especially Millennials and Gen Z—are treating markets like a casino. Not because they’re reckless, but because the traditional path to financial security feels broken. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down Financial Nihilism vs. Financial Planning: why speculative behavior is rising, and what still works when confidence in long-term investing erodes. Options trading, crypto, meme assets, and betting apps offer fast outcomes in a world where housing is expensive, debt is high, and patience feels unrewarded. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Index Weaker than Expected 4:25 -...
info_outlineMarkets sold off and then rallied back to close in positive territory; markets are holding on at a very high level: Participants are just unwilling to sell, expecting markets to climb even higher thru year's end. Analysts are very exuberant, seeing no problem with the S&P hitting 6,200 by the end of the year. Bitcoin is the poster-child for exuberance, melting higher in the post-election, now in the $91,000 realm. This is the best, speculative investment measure of risk. Bitcoin is extremely overbought. Gold, on the other hand, has gotten hit really hard since the election, trading down another 80-basis points this morning. Gold cracked through the 20-day, the 50-day, and is threatening to break through the 100-DMA today. Gold is oversold, and we're expecting a bounce. The Russell 2000 has seen a big gain in small- and mid-cap stocks following the election. Bank lending standards have loosened up sharply since the election, too. Lowered interest rates and a business-friendly Administration are allowing banks to ease their lending restrictions for small- and mid-cap companies. The message in the markets: Risk-on!
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJeDa7V9Z3I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic/
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