11-21-24 Will Trump Tariffs Be Inflationary?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A preview of risks on the horizon, including Trump Tariffs, interest rates, and how debt and deficits are economic drivers. What are the effects on corporate profitability?Will valuations be problematic next year? Lance revews Nvidia's stellar quarterly report and analysts' expectations for 2025. Bitcoin is tracking WITH the US Dollar, not against it as a de-dollarization asset. CNBC completely misses "first man in space" trivia question (Yuri Gagarin, not Alan Shepherd); Lance & Michael discuss Nvidia's quarterly earnings and obscene, 55% profit margin: Does the company risk losing market...
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11-21-24 Nvidia Doesn't Disappoint
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Nvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying...
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11-20-24 Wall Street Lowers 2025 Expectations: Should You Be Concerned?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's Nvidia Day--markets will respond accordingly tomorrow. Expectations are high for earnings and forward guidance. Analysts are generally looking for lowered expectations in 2025, as President Trump faces a waning economy. Meanwhile, markets have had a good test of support at the 20-DMA. Volatility anticipated in a holiday-shortened trading week next week. Lance and Danny plead for planning ahead at the end of the year, so as not to pile EOY changes on at the last minute. Corporate profitability in 2025: Case studies with WalMart vs Target and the aftertaste of wokeism. Stock picking could...
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11-20-24 Will Markets End 2024 Even Higher Than Now?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Good action in the markets on Tuesday after testing the 20-DMA three times: Futures are higher this morning, so a follow through is expected. There is a short-term sell signal in place, however, which will likely limit upside. Expect a little more volatility over the next few days as trading is impacted by a holiday-shortened week for Thanksgiving. Despite that, markets should end higher than where they are now. Historically, whenever there's been a 20% return year by November (which we have had), markets end that year higher, 80% of the time. Caveat: Everybody is in the boat right now;...
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11-19-24 Yardini & The Long History of Prediction Problems
The Real Investment Show Podcast
WalMart reports it's close to profitability; expect some market chop this week; NVIDIA reports Wednesday evening, and markets will respond on Thursday. A look at the performance of the Top Ten Stocks: Everyone wants to be in on the US Markets. Markets on Tuesday dropped to bounce off the 20-DMA, and continue to run along the ever-rising trend line. Expect some volatility ahead of next month's Fed meeting and anticipated 25-bp rate cut. Watch out for a shift in language to a more dovish stance. Economist Ed Yardeni believes markets' upward momentum will continue, and has revised his...
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11-19-24 Will the Doves Return to the Fed?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets came down to touch the 20-DMA and bounced off of it; markets are trending along this upward trend range. We're about half-way through a correction, with markets having a little more work to do. Markets tend to perform better following Thanksgiving into the first two weeks of December. Expect volatility and a little chop; not much else to worry about. The Fed is expected to make a 25-bp rate cut at its meeting on December 18...unless they don't. That's the risk to reckon with. The key will be in the Fed's language, and whether it takes a dovish tone. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment...
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11-18-24 "Trump Trade" Sends Investors Into Overdrive
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. Expectations for US GDP growth in the new year are on the plus side of 3%, vs the EU's negative exepctations: Where do you want to put your money? First place the "Government Efficiency Department" can start is at the Department of Defense, failing its past seven audits. Risks are building in certain market areas where “Trump Trade” exuberance has likely exceeded the grasp of underlying fundamental realities. While investors were a bit skittish heading into the election, the clean Republican sweep of the Presidency, House, and Senate...
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11-18-24 Assets Keeping You Awake? Sell 'em!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Friday's market sell- off was the result of a big options expiration date. The post-election rally was a vertical spike, and that markets were so stretched from the 50-DMA, a return to earth was inevitable. Markets are working off their "overboughtedness," and are close to triggering a sell signal. Markets tend to rally after Thanksgiving and into the first two weeks of December. Choppy action should be expected going into the end of the year. While the trend into January appears to be positive, be aware of the risks. With interest rates bouncing up and down over the past two weeks, Bonds were...
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11-14-24 The Math Behind the MACD
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwilling to sell, expecting markets to continue to rise; Bitcoin is melting up, Gold is getting beaten up, the Russell 2000 enjoys a post-election pop. Lance covers YouTube Chat etiquette, and with Michael Lebowitz discusses the latest CPI print...
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11-14-24 Why Market Participants are Unwilling to Sell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off and then rallied back to close in positive territory; markets are holding on at a very high level: Participants are just unwilling to sell, expecting markets to climb even higher thru year's end. Analysts are very exuberant, seeing no problem with the S&P hitting 6,200 by the end of the year. Bitcoin is the poster-child for exuberance, melting higher in the post-election, now in the $91,000 realm. This is the best, speculative investment measure of risk. Bitcoin is extremely overbought. Gold, on the other hand, has gotten hit really hard since the election, trading down...
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Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwilling to sell, expecting markets to continue to rise; Bitcoin is melting up, Gold is getting beaten up, the Russell 2000 enjoys a post-election pop.
Lance covers YouTube Chat etiquette, and with Michael Lebowitz discusses the latest CPI print and the problem with homeowners equivalent rent as 40% of the CPI calculation. What about the PPI? The Fed's biggest task is calming the markets. Markets are only listening to what they want to hear. Lance shares his Top Five Technical Analysis Tools. When we discuss technical analysis in our articles and podcasts, we often examine the moving average convergence divergence indicator, better known as the MACD, or colloquially the Mac D. The MACD is one of our favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. The MACD is the difference between a short moving average and a longer moving average. The MACD line tells us if there is a trend in place and whether its momentum is increasing or decreasing. Lance and Michael share how to use MACD in your trading strategy as part of your suite of technical analysis tools.
SEG-1: Economists' Thoughts vs Consumers' Actions
SEG-2: CPI & The Problem With Homeowners' Equivalent Rent
SEG-3: Markets Are Only Listening to What They Want to Hear
SEG-4: Technical Analysis & The Math of MACD
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqVRDTY2m5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"The MACD: A Guide To This Powerful Momentum Gauge"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-macd-a-guide-to-this-powerful-momentum-gauge/
"Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Market Participants are Unwilling to Sell" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJeDa7V9Z3I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Annuities: Good, Bad, & Ugly"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6X1QEdhShs0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2720s
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