12-12-24 CPI Gives the Fed a Green Light for Rate Cut
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance reviews a recent report about generational wealth transfers, and notes that his kids get NOTHING. Wednesday's CPI report was seemingly the last hurdle for the Fed to cut interest rates. With the CPI index matching Wall Street forecasts, the Fed Funds futures market now implies a 97% chance the Fed will cut rates next Wednesday. The data was OK but elicits fears that the downward price progress has stalled. Lance & Michael discuss the precarious premise behind Microsystem's Bitcoin strategy, what makes for value, and what happens when there's no more buyers. How did the Hunt Brothers'...
info_outline
12-12-24 The Pressure is On the Markets
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off towards the 20-DMA on Monday and Tuesday, as part of the portfolio rebalancing that normally occurs this time of year. Under-performing and under-weighted stocks have had rallies over the last few days, even as the rest of the market was selling off. Markets did see a bit of a bouce on Wednesday as managers bought and sold to achieve equilibirum. There are probaly another three or four days' worth of this kind of activity, so more sloppy trading to come. The Fed's aniticpate rate-cut announcment next week will set the stage for a nice Santa Claus rally into the end of the...
info_outline
12-10-24 Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's Ten Investment Rules, with a focus on #9: When all experts agree... Tax-loss Harvesting &...
info_outline
12-10-24 Will the Markets Re-balance?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
happen to the top 10-20% of the Russell 2000: All those high-momentum stocks that were up 50- to 90% this year were sold off because they were over weighted in portfolios, and this created a very big draw-down in momentum on Monday. Markets are flattish in the pre-open, and may achieve some recovery today, but markets are still fairly deviated from their moving averages. We are likely to trigger a sell signal today, which would additionally push markets lower heading into Christmas. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...
info_outline
12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows...
info_outline
12-9-24 Setting Up to Rally
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets performed well last week, continuing to rise to new highs on Friday. There is now a huge deviation from moving averages, so there's a real risk for correction...but no guarantee: Markets COULD continue to rally into the New Year. The Volatility Index is also suggesting the same potentiality. An uptick in volatility...and a market correction...would be absolutely normal. Any pull back will set us up for a year-end rally. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast:...
info_outline
12-5-24 Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz makes a rare, in-studio appearance with Lance Roberts, discussing whether another market liquidity event might be on the horizon? While there is generally good liquidity in the financial system, there are some nascent signs that problems could arise. The ISM Services Index is showing weaknesses, and more economic reports to come this month are likely to mirrow such performance. A lack of stimulus money showing up previously in the economy are resulting in these weaker results emerging. Meanwhile, markets continue to do well, and expectations for 2025 are 19%...
info_outline
12-5-24 Bitcoin Hits $100,000
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Big news overnight is that Bitcoin hit $100,000 with President-election Trump's appointment of pro-cryptonian, Paul Atkins, to return as SEC Chief. Consider, Bitcoin was at $60k back in October; this recent climb culminates a long period of consolidation. Caution should be the watchword, however, as Bitcoin is highly deviated from its long-term moving averages. Eventually, it will get a pullback. Technology also had a big breakout Wednesday, after a long period of consolidation following the Yen Carry Trade blowup. Markets are very optimistic, very bullish, which is moving asset prices...
info_outline
12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high;...
info_outline
12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What should you anticipate for your market playbook as 2024 comes to an end? The S&P has continued its steady trend along the 20-DMA, with a few tests of the 50- and 100-DMA's along the way. While we have had very low volatility this year, we're expecting a bit of a correction between the 8th and the 15th of the month. Likely nothing dramatic, just back to the 20-DMA. After that, portfolio managers will begin the process known as "window dressing:" putting the best possible performers on their books for positive year-end results. That will likely trigger a "Santa Claus Rally" into the...
info_outline
Just ahead of the Christmas Retail Shopping Season, credit card debt is piling up; consumers are under stress. Survey: What to do when an item is too expensive? What will be the actual effect of tariffs? What economists think vs how consumers react. Meanwhile, markets sold off Wednesday, then rallied back for a positive close: Participants are unwilling to sell, expecting markets to continue to rise; Bitcoin is melting up, Gold is getting beaten up, the Russell 2000 enjoys a post-election pop.
Lance covers YouTube Chat etiquette, and with Michael Lebowitz discusses the latest CPI print and the problem with homeowners equivalent rent as 40% of the CPI calculation. What about the PPI? The Fed's biggest task is calming the markets. Markets are only listening to what they want to hear. Lance shares his Top Five Technical Analysis Tools. When we discuss technical analysis in our articles and podcasts, we often examine the moving average convergence divergence indicator, better known as the MACD, or colloquially the Mac D. The MACD is one of our favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. The MACD is the difference between a short moving average and a longer moving average. The MACD line tells us if there is a trend in place and whether its momentum is increasing or decreasing. Lance and Michael share how to use MACD in your trading strategy as part of your suite of technical analysis tools.
SEG-1: Economists' Thoughts vs Consumers' Actions
SEG-2: CPI & The Problem With Homeowners' Equivalent Rent
SEG-3: Markets Are Only Listening to What They Want to Hear
SEG-4: Technical Analysis & The Math of MACD
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqVRDTY2m5Q&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
-------
Articles mentioned in this report:
"The MACD: A Guide To This Powerful Momentum Gauge"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-macd-a-guide-to-this-powerful-momentum-gauge/
"Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/exuberance-investors-have-rarely-been-so-optimistic/
-------
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Why Market Participants are Unwilling to Sell" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJeDa7V9Z3I&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
-------
Our previous show is here: "Annuities: Good, Bad, & Ugly"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6X1QEdhShs0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2720s
-------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
--------
SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
--------
Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to SimpleVisor:
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #StockMarket #InvestingTips #InvestmentAdvice #CPI #PPI #FinancialPlanning #IrrationalExuberance #MarketBubble #InvestorSentiment #StockMarketTrends #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #YieldCurve #OperationTwist #JeromePowell #NFIBconfidenceIndex #TrumpWins #ElectionResults2024 #MarketReaction #InvestmentStrategy #PolicyImpact #ElectionDay2024 #MarketVolatility #ElectionInvesting #PortfolioProtection #FinancialTrends #Election2024 #InvestmentStrategy #ElectionImpact #InterestRates #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing