2-6-25 Where Money Comes From
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets remain in a bullish trend for the moment, despite disappointing economic news in the Trade Deficit and the ISM Services Index. Improving relative strength is also providing lift for the market. Technically, everything is fine despite disappointing news from AMD, Google, and others. Money flows continue to creep upward with continued buying. Lance and Michael spend the remaining segments of the show discussing money, currencies, and concepts of money supply management: All money is lent into existence. The Federal Reserve or the government does not print money. Those two facts are vital...
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2-6-25 Markets Continue to Defy Disappointing News
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets rallied off support at the 20-DMA and 50-DMA's and had a nice finish for the day. That kept from triggering a MACD Sell Signal, so markets remain in a bullish trend for the moment. Improving relative strength is also providing lift for the market. Technically, everything is fine despite disappointing news from AMD, Google, and others. Money flows continue to creep upward with continued buying. There was a sharp upswing in AMD buying, even though the stock was down. Will there be carry-through in the semiconductor space? The latest economic data has also been helping the Bond market,...
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2-5-25 What the Bond Market is Telling Us About Trump 2.0
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are recovering from tariff troubles on Monday; a brief history of Trump's past trade wars & results; Google's earnings miss & correction; earnings have been okay, but expectations are slipping. The China Trade War retaliation begins; it's all about posturing. Markets rally from Monday; if you're worried about the volatility, there's too much risk in your portfolio. Lance razzes Danny "Bulldog" Ratliff about his absenteeism and polo shirt choices. Lance reviews market performance during Trump's trade wars 2017-2019 (charts); looking for more volatility this year. Beware...
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2-5-25 If Volatility is Causing Too Much Worry, You Have Too Much Risk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets enjoyed a nice rally Tuesday after Monday's tariff-inspired action, closing right at the 50-DMA. the 20-DMA is about to bullishly cross above the 50-DMA, suggesting markets are still trending, and money flows are still coming into the markets fairly well. Markets today need to hold support at the 50-DMA so they can push onward and upward. If, however, the market closes lower today, watch for a MACD sell signal to be triggered. We're about halfway through the correction from the post-inauguration rally. If the present volatility is weighing on you, then you've got too much risk in...
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2-4-25 Trade War is Over!
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Well that was fast. Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. The announcement of tariffs set the market on its heels Monday morning as media writers quickly pushed narratives about the potential impacts. However, as suggested on the “Real Investment Show” before the market opened on Monday, the best thing to do would be “nothing.” We stated the market’s opening would likely be the worst level of the day, so any “panic selling” of positions early in the morning would likely be a mistake. Early in the...
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2-4-25 Will Markets Rally Back Above the 50-DMA?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Money flows continue to be positive, despite all the negative headlines and news over the past couple of weeks. Admittedly, this is part of the overall cycle, with markets over bought and now going through a corrective phase. Halfway through a recovery, we're near the trigger point for a short-term sell signal, with only a little downside pressure. A consolidation is not surprising at this juncture. Also, we're midway through earnings season, and next week will see the buy back window open much wider. Markets today will once again flirt with the 20- and 50-DMA; markets need some "muster" to...
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2-3-25 Markets Down in Response to Tariffs
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets have been doing "okay" as of late, in a large trading range for past couple of months. Markets will open today below the 20-DMA in a knee-jerk open in response to President Trump's promise over the weekend to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. We'll be watching for signs of the market processing the news, and see where things stabilize later in the day. This is a day to Do Nothing, and wait for the dust to settle, just like last Monday. We close to triggering a sell signal. Markets have been in a consolidation range, with no reason to be concerned so long as trading remains...
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1-31-25 Tips & Traps You Need to Know for Tax Season
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Apple's outlook will set the tone for today's market action; the January effect will be set by the end of the day. Rich & Matt discuss tariffs & volatility; Mexico and Canada are targets. Inflation data due today with the PCE report. The FEd's target is still 2%, and there's no reason to lower rates for now. This is forcing markets to shift focus; why a little inflation is a good thing. The US Tax Code can make you cry like Selena Gomez: Rich & Matt discuss inflation-adjusted tax brackets and standard deduction changes; Qualified Charitable Donations, Quarterly estimated tax...
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1-30-25 The Fed Holds Firm
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's the end of the month, and the determining day for the January Barometer is tomorrow. Markets knee-jerked all over the board following yesterday's Fed announcements to hold firm at current rates. Economic news was not encouraging, with export up, imports down, suggesting the economy is weaker than thought; labor and demand dynamics. There is a lot of speculative money pouring into markets; nobody is buying stocks anymore. It's all in options, which will end badly for many because it's very speculative. Lance recounts the latest reports from Magnificent-7 member companies; Michael explores...
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1-30-25 Why Options Data is Off the Hook
The Real Investment Show Podcast
This has been a week full of headlines, between the Fed meeting and the whole DeepSeek story, lots of panic and concerns were generated. Markets really haven't done a whole lot this week. Retail investors bought heavily into Monday's dip. But nobody really buys stocks anymore: Retail investors are piling into options at a pace not seen before. Most of the options are call options; investors are fully long on this market. FOMO is now a function of not missing the bottom. A lot of the money being put into the markets is very speculative, and that's not something many will survive on a sharp...
info_outlineNvidia absolutely slayed their quarterly earnings report, reporting an incredible 55% profit margin on their chips, with $35-billion in revenues (I know, Lance said, "Trillion;" it's Billion.) Stocks may trade down a bit this morning, but still within a very bullish trend. Palo Alto Networks also had a good report, beating estimates. Snowflake, however, barely beat estimates, and is up 21% this morning; why the difference? The markets, as of late, have been a "dash for trash." The Dollar Index continues to accelerate. But Bitcoin, the supposedly "Dollar Debasement" play, has been rallying right along with the Dollar. Bitcoin, approaching $100k, is NOT a dollar debasement asset; it is a risk-on asset. Bitcoin is essentially a dollar asset because, in order to use it, you have to convert Bitcoin back into Dollars. Be careful: Both the Dollar and Bitcoin are extremely over-bought at this point.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1rOq_VH06M&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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