Libsyn Directory

12-3-24 Diversification Isn't What You Think

Release Date: 12/03/2024

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Well that was fast. Over the weekend, President Trump announced tariffs of 25% on both Canada and Mexico, as well as a 10% tariff on China. The announcement of tariffs set the market on its heels Monday morning as media writers quickly pushed narratives about the potential impacts. However, as suggested on the “Real Investment Show” before the market opened on Monday, the best thing to do would be “nothing.” We stated the market’s opening would likely be the worst level of the day, so any “panic selling” of positions early in the morning would likely be a mistake. Early in the...

2-4-25 Will Markets Rally Back Above the 50-DMA?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Money flows continue to be positive, despite all the negative headlines and news over the past couple of weeks. Admittedly, this is part of the overall cycle, with markets over bought and now going through a corrective phase. Halfway through a recovery, we're near the trigger point for a short-term sell signal, with only a little downside pressure. A consolidation is not surprising at this juncture. Also, we're midway through earnings season, and next week will see the buy back window open much wider. Markets today will once again flirt with the 20- and 50-DMA; markets need some "muster" to...

2-3-25 Markets Down in Response to Tariffs

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets have been doing "okay" as of late, in a large trading range for past couple of months. Markets will open today below the 20-DMA in a knee-jerk open in response to President Trump's promise over the weekend to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. We'll be watching for signs of the market processing the news, and see where things stabilize later in the day. This is a day to Do Nothing, and wait for the dust to settle, just like last Monday. We close to triggering a sell signal. Markets have been in a consolidation range, with no reason to be concerned so long as trading remains...

1-31-25 Tips & Traps You Need to Know for Tax Season

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Apple's outlook will set the tone for today's market action; the January effect will be set by the end of the day. Rich & Matt discuss tariffs & volatility; Mexico and Canada are targets. Inflation data due today with the PCE report. The FEd's target is still 2%, and there's no reason to lower rates for now. This is forcing markets to shift focus; why a little inflation is a good thing. The US Tax Code can make you cry like Selena Gomez: Rich & Matt discuss inflation-adjusted tax brackets and standard deduction changes; Qualified Charitable Donations, Quarterly estimated tax...

1-30-25 The Fed Holds Firm

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It's the end of the month, and the determining day for the January Barometer is tomorrow. Markets knee-jerked all over the board following yesterday's Fed announcements to hold firm at current rates. Economic news was not encouraging, with export up, imports down, suggesting the economy is weaker than thought; labor and demand dynamics. There is a lot of speculative money pouring into markets; nobody is buying stocks anymore. It's all in options, which will end badly for many because it's very speculative. Lance recounts the latest reports from Magnificent-7 member companies; Michael explores...

1-30-25 Why Options Data is Off the Hook

The Real Investment Show Podcast

This has been a week full of headlines, between the Fed meeting and the whole DeepSeek story, lots of panic and concerns were generated. Markets really haven't done a whole lot this week. Retail investors bought heavily into Monday's dip. But nobody really buys stocks anymore: Retail investors are piling into options at a pace not seen before. Most of the options are call options; investors are fully long on this market. FOMO is now a function of not missing the bottom. A lot of the money being put into the markets is very speculative, and that's not something many will survive on a sharp...

1-29-25 Watching the Mega-Cap Earnings Parade

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Today is Mega-cap earnings Day, and there's also a lot of economic data to be revealed. Plus, this afternoon will see the latest announcement from the Federal Reserve. Expectations are for the Fed to hold firm on rates this time. Interestingly, despite Monday's selloff, money flows have continued to come into the markets. In fact, on Tuesday (1/28) the QQQ had its biggest inflow since 2021. Monday's market action was NOT the watershed event the bears were trying to make it out to be. Markets are not overbought yet; we're still on a solid buy signal. That's not to say a pullback can't...

1-29-25 What Money Flows Are Telling Us

The Real Investment Show Podcast

When money flows are positive, asset prices are supported; if money flows are negative, support is taken away. Understanding in which direction money flows are going will help you better determine where markets are going next. Interestingly, despite Monday's selloff, money flows have continued to come into the markets. In fact, on Tuesday (1/28) the QQQ had its biggest inflow since 2021. Monday's market action was NOT the watershed event the bears were trying to make it out to be. Markets are not overbought yet; we're still on a solid buy signal. That's not to say a pullback can't happen;...

1-28-25 The DeepSeek Knee Jerk

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The race is on for dominance in the artificial intelligence arena with China's release of DeepSeek. Markets initially nose-dived Monday, but ended up slightly higher (with the exception of Nvidia). This volatility underlines the necessity for portfolio diversification. The pullback in an oversold market was not unexpected. The news resulted in the biggest single-day market cap loss for Nvidia, due in part to its massive market cap. Lance discusses what may be the positive results of thie "Sputnik moment" for the US. The markets' response also underscores the importance of Bonds in overall...

1-28-25 DeepSeek Reaction: Why Diversification Works

The Real Investment Show Podcast

In the aftermath of the DeepSeek fracas, markets are still on a buy signal, breadth improved as markets came down to kiss the 20-DMA and then rallyed above the 50-DMA, still holding important technical support. Markets were over bought going into yesterday's trading, and the pullback was not unexpected. (This illustrates perfectly the reason for rebalancing risk in portfolios.) Nvidia shouldered most of the impact on Monday, dropping below its 100-DMA, but recovered to close above that level; the stock had a $600-B market cap reduction. The movement is proportional to its size; be careful...

More Episodes

The S&P is back on a buy signal and is a bit overbought; about to be impacted by portfolio redistributions. Small- and Mid-caps have enjoyed a sharp rally but are now only back to where they were three years ago. (While the S&P has made 54 new highs this year, up almost 27% for the year and continuing to grow, Russell 2000 holders have gone virtually nowhere for the past three years.) Those who have been long-term holders in "allocated" portfolios would be wise to review the idea of "diversification:" Diversifying among asset managers is NOT diversification. Just holding a bucket of assets across boards doesn't necessarily lead to better outcomes. Bitcoin has been in the news of late, getting close to the $100k mark; it is currently sitting on the 20-DMA, which is highly deviated. It will come back to meet the gravity of the moving average. Gold has also been working through a consolidation process. Pay attention to support at the 100-DMA. Similarly, the Dollar has been overbought following the presidential election. It's on a sell signal, working off the overboughtedness, and will be pulling back. What happens to the Dollar will feed over into other commodities.

Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the video version of this podcast:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmN8a-6Yr5g&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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