12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 12/04/2024
2-24-26 Stop Chasing 2026 Returns
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most investors don’t realize how quickly a good plan can get derailed by one bad question: “What will your investments return this year?” Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn break down why asking an advisor for short-term performance predictions is usually the wrong framework—especially when comparisons start with “Can you beat Treasuries this year?” Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - E-books & Economic Data 2:53 - Will AI Lead to...
info_outline
2-24-26 100-DMA Test: 5% Pullback Risk Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
On this day in 1836, the defenders of the Alamo were entering the second day of a siege that would ultimately define Texas history. Surrounded, outnumbered, and under pressure, they faced a critical reality: hold the line—or face the consequences. Markets aren’t all that different right now. After failing at the 20- and 50-day moving averages, the S&P is once again leaning on a key level of support—the 100-day. That’s your line in the sand. Momentum is weakening, internal breadth is deteriorating, and while the surface looks calm, the underlying currents are shifting. The question...
info_outline
2-23-26 Is China Really Dumping U.S. Treasuries?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is China really “dumping” U.S. Treasury bonds—or is that headline missing key context? Lance Roberts examines what Treasury International Capital (TIC) data does (and doesn’t) show, why China’s reported holdings can shift for reasons that have nothing to do with panic selling, and how custody chains and financial centers can complicate the narrative. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:52 - What to Do w Tariffs Struck Down by SCOTUS 5:35 - GDP Weaker than Expected, except... 12:59 -...
info_outline
2-23-26 Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets bounced Friday, recovering to close slightly above the 20-day moving average, but the story remains internal rotation—not a clean, broad-based trend. Energy and mega-caps carried the tape into the close, while this morning the leadership is shifting again, with Healthcare acting better (Eli Lilly notably higher) and much of the rest of the market looking flat. February is doing what it often does—acting like one of the weaker seasonal months—and the S&P 500 is up only about 1.2% year-to-date. Under the surface, sector bifurcation is pronounced: Energy, Industrials, and Basic...
info_outline
2-20-26 Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Some 401(k) plans let you put in extra after-tax money and move it into a Roth so it can grow tax-free—but you have to know what your plan allows. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty share 10 questions to ask your 401(k) provider so you don’t miss it. Rich & Jonathan also explain a new bill that would make the $6,000 senior deduction permanent. It’s not the same as “no tax on Social Security” for everyone—and the Social Security tax rules still depend on income thresholds that haven’t kept up with inflation. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard...
info_outline
2-19-26 Dalio at Davos: Calm Markets, Hidden Currents
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Ray Dalio’s Davos comments aren’t a “next-week collapse” call—they’re a long-cycle warning: rising debt supply can eventually force higher yields and tough policy trade-offs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 looks calm on the surface, but sector/factor dispersion and low correlations show a fierce rotation under the hood. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the calm index ≠ calm market—watch dispersion and correlations for the next regime shift. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent...
info_outline
2-19-26 Dow Streak Signals Pullback | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pushed higher Wednesday morning and ran straight into a key technical “traffic jam” as the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converged near the same level. Late-day selling pulled prices back toward the 50-DMA, and with futures slightly lower this morning, the big question is whether buyers step back in—or whether we start to see a more routine digestion of gains. The bigger tell right now may be the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow has notched nine consecutive months of gains, a streak that’s historically rare over long market history. When runs like this extend, it...
info_outline
2-18-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money, and Your Questions
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It’s Q&A Wednesday—your questions drive the show. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down what’s moving markets right now, key economic and Fed signals to watch this week, and the practical portfolio decisions that matter most (risk, allocations, income, taxes, and retirement timing). Drop your question in the live chatroom and we’ll tackle as many as we can. Topics we often cover: market volatility & trend levels, rates/inflation, sector rotation, retirement income, tax strategy, ETFs vs. individual bonds, and avoiding emotional decision-making. Hosted by RIA...
info_outline
2-18-26 100-DMA Bounce: Range-Bound Markets & Energy Risk | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets tested the 100-day moving average (100-DMA) and buyers stepped in—exactly where many systematic and algorithmic strategies tend to respond. Futures are pointing higher this morning, but that doesn’t automatically mean the selloff is finished. Momentum remains weak and the market is still on a sell signal, which often sets up a choppy, range-bound environment without a clear catalyst. We also discuss why “chasing winners” can get dangerous late in an extended run—highlighted by Walmart’s sharp drop after a strong advance. In commodities, crude oil is trying to stabilize, but...
info_outline
2-17-26 Bank, Brokerage, or Corporate Trustee? (It's a Matter of Trust)
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Choosing a corporate trustee is one of the most important decisions in estate planning—especially if you’re naming a bank, brokerage trust department, or independent trust company to manage assets and carry out your wishes after you’re gone. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down how to compare corporate trustees beyond just “lowest fees,” including fiduciary standards, investment flexibility, service model, administrative capabilities, distribution discipline, technology/reporting, continuity, and how they handle family dynamics. We also cover the key differences between revocable...
info_outlineRussia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high; should you sell winners and buy losers now? Emerging Markets are not growing; losers are cheap for a reason. The danger of doing rebalancing willy-nilly. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. The potential risks to portfolios of reduced government spending. Lance & Danny review the recent Thanksgiving break with family and the concept of paying your own way; demographic trends, and the evolution of Generation-X as "sandwich parents." Kids coming home for the holidays vs "boomerang" kids; first paychecks and stringing Christmas lights (yeah, we were all over the place today!)
SEG-1: Meteorites, Russia, & Expectations for the Rest of 2204
SEG-2: Backpain & Pullbacks: Portfolio Rebalancing
SEG-3: On Being Contrarian
SEG-4a: Thanksgiving Reminiscing & Paying Your Way
SEG-4b: The Roberts Kids Home for the Holidays
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
-------
Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9_6jy2TkA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2423s
-------
Articles mentioned in this report:
"Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/
"Extreme Speculation Has Returned"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/
-------
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, 12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjd2EjcoZw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
-------
Our previous show is here: "What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s95h3jUr3c4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
-------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
--------
SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
--------
Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to SimpleVisor:
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#PortfolioRealityCheck #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialPlanning #MarketTrends2024 #WealthManagement #MarketLeverage #SpeculationRisks #InvestmentTrends #FinancialWarnings #StockVolatility #StockMarketSpeculation #MarketVolatility #HighRiskInvesting #SpeculativeTrading #FinancialTrends2025 #TrumpAdministration #RegulatoryChanges #InvestingAdvice #Money #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing