Libsyn Directory

12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check

Release Date: 12/04/2024

5-11-26 Iran Headlines Rattle Markets | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets are reacting to renewed Iran tensions as oil prices rise and stock futures weaken. Energy stocks are leading while the Mag-7 trades lower, but the bigger concern may be how stretched markets have become after weeks of relentless gains. This “Bull Stampede” rally has pushed sentiment back to extreme bullishness, volatility remains very low, and markets are now heavily extended above long-term trends. History suggests these setups often lead to fast reversions, with 3% to 5% pullbacks arriving quickly once a catalyst appears. Will it come from Iran, inflation data, or the Trump-Xi...

5-8-26 Annuities: Smart Move or Costly Mistake?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Are annuities only for retirees, or can they play a role in building long-term financial security at any age? Richard Rosso & Jonathan "Smarty" McCarty break down the myths, costs, benefits, and risks of annuities, and how guaranteed income fits into a retirement strategy. We discuss how annuities can serve as bond substitutes, why fees vary so widely, how sales structures impact costs, and how to determine whether an annuity fits your personal retirement goals. Most importantly, we explore how to create a rules-based approach to guaranteed income that matches your lifestyle, risk...

5-7-26 Semiconductors: Bubble or Bust?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Key topics include:...

5-7-26 How Markets Ignore the Fear | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

For four years, investors have been told the next crash was right around the corner. Russia-Ukraine, inflation at 9%, Fed rate hikes, Silicon Valley Bank, tariffs, AI fears, Iran tensions, and endless recession warnings all fueled bearish headlines. Yet despite every crisis narrative, the market has doubled from the October 2022 lows. This morning, we break down why markets continue to climb in the face of nonstop fear narratives, and what actually matters for long-term market direction: earnings growth and forward expectations. We also review the technical backdrop, including the MACD...

5-6-26 Q&A Wednesday - What's Your Biggest Concern?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It’s Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff are taking your questions live from the YouTube chatroom. From markets at all-time highs and rising pullback risk, to Fed policy, rates, and portfolio positioning, we’re breaking down what matters most right now. With stocks extended, volume thinning out, and momentum showing signs of fatigue, is this a healthy pause or the start of a correction? What should investors and traders be doing right here? Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 0:57 - Markets Rally, Oil Plunges 4:05 - AI Trade is Back - but watch for reversal 7:52 -...

5-6-26 AI Rally Nears Exhaustion | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets continue pushing to new all-time highs as AI stocks lead the rally higher, but momentum and money flow signals are beginning to weaken beneath the surface. While the bullish trend remains intact, overbought conditions are building and a near-term pullback or consolidation would not be surprising. Lance Roberts reviews why slowing money flows matter, what history says about momentum-driven rallies, and why patience, profit-taking, and risk management still matter even in strong markets. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...

5-5-26 Investing vs Trading - Finding the Balance

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Investing and trading are often treated as opposing strategies, but the real advantage comes from knowing how to use both effectively. Long-term investing builds wealth through discipline and compounding, while trading can create short-term opportunities to enhance returns or manage risk. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down the key differences between investing and trading, when each approach makes sense, and how to structure a portfolio that incorporates both without letting emotion or overactivity take control. We discuss time horizons, risk management, position sizing, and how to avoid...

5-5-26 Cooling-Off Correction Ahead? | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets remain extended, and while a major decline is unlikely, a short-term correction would be normal. With volume thinning at current levels and momentum nearing a sell signal, the risk is for a pullback into the 6,800–6,900 range, where stronger support and prior trading activity exist. We are using this environment to take profits, rebalance portfolios, and add some defensive exposure. The objective is to manage risk now and maintain flexibility, so we have capital ready to deploy when a better opportunity presents itself. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO...

5-4-26 Summer Sell-Off Risk Rising

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets have pushed higher, but underlying risks are beginning to build as we head into the summer months. From stretched valuations and overbought technical conditions to seasonal weakness and shifting liquidity, investors may be facing a more challenging environment than recent gains suggest. Lance Roberts breaks down the key signals pointing to a potential summer sell-off, including market breadth, momentum, and the impact of earnings season winding down. We also discuss how buybacks, economic data, and Federal Reserve policy could influence the next move in stocks, and whether any pullback...

5-4-26 Markets Near Peak - Pullback Risk Rising | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets closed at new all-time highs, but conditions are increasingly stretched. Momentum is extended, and a short-term sell signal is approaching. That does not signal a crash, but it does suggest the rally is due for a pause or pullback. Support levels sit near 6,980 at the 20-day moving average, with a stronger cluster closer to 6,880. A move back toward those levels would be a healthy reset and create better buying opportunities. Now is the time to manage risk—trim positions, rebalance, and raise some cash rather than chasing the rally. Investors often stay fully invested too long, then...

More Episodes

Russia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high; should you sell winners and buy losers now? Emerging Markets are not growing; losers are cheap for a reason. The danger of doing rebalancing willy-nilly. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. The potential risks to portfolios of reduced government spending. Lance & Danny review the recent Thanksgiving break with family and the concept of paying your own way; demographic trends, and the evolution of Generation-X as "sandwich parents." Kids coming home for the holidays vs "boomerang" kids; first paychecks and stringing Christmas lights (yeah, we were all over the place today!)

SEG-1: Meteorites, Russia, & Expectations for the Rest of 2204
SEG-2: Backpain & Pullbacks: Portfolio Rebalancing
SEG-3: On Being Contrarian
SEG-4a: Thanksgiving Reminiscing & Paying Your Way
SEG-4b: The Roberts Kids Home for the Holidays

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9_6jy2TkA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2423s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/
"Extreme Speculation Has Returned"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, 12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjd2EjcoZw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s95h3jUr3c4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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