12-4-24 Time for a Portfolio Reality Check
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 12/04/2024
2-5-26 Truflation vs CPI: What Inflation Is Really Doing Today
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is inflation actually cooling—or just being measured differently? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down Truflation’s real-time inflation readings (built from millions of point-of-purchase prices across multiple providers) versus the official CPI/PCE framework, which relies far more on surveys and sampling. We’ll also address the big caveat: neither CPI/PCE nor Truflation perfectly captures what you feel “in the shops,” because inflation varies by geography, income group, and what you actually buy. The aggregate number can hide the lived experience. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 -...
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2-5-26 Markets Set Up for Rotation Trades | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off again Wednesday, closing right on the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (50-DMA). While the index is still riding its underlying support line and working off an overbought condition, the momentum trade has largely been wrung out. Despite the turbulence, the broader uptrend remains intact—just with a lot more internal rotation. Wednesday’s damage was concentrated in mega-cap momentum and “growth leadership,” while much of the rest of the market held up better. That matters because Value vs. Growth has become increasingly overextended over the last several...
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2-4-26 Q&A Wednesday: Your Questions, Real Answers
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Today’s live YouTube Chat Q&A covers the full spectrum—earnings season takeaways, the selloff-to-rebound pattern, and the big debate around Big Tech, AI, and margins. We walk through where tech and AI leadership stand now, whether AI is pressuring software profitability, and the “real world” constraint markets may be underpricing: power demand (including what ERCOT could mean for data-center expansion). We also hit the energy transition angle—why wind/solar intermittency matters, the critical minerals push, and why fundamentals still matter when narratives run hot. On the...
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2-4-26 Dip Buyers Step In | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets sold off sharply Tuesday, then bounced into the close—continuing a familiar pattern: when price tests the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), dip buyers step in. That’s been working, but it’s also how traders get trapped when the “buy-the-dip” playbook finally fails—so risk management matters. This morning, futures are pointing higher as the market tries to reclaim the 20-day moving average (20-DMA). Tuesday’s weakness was concentrated in mega-cap tech (NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL), and early action suggests a bounce attempt. Meanwhile, the “heat map” continues to highlight...
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2-3-26 The Trap of Chasing Returns
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most investors don’t blow up because they “didn’t know enough.” They blow up because they frame the decision wrong. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down narrow framing—the behavior where investors judge one investment in isolation (“Why don’t I own that?”) instead of evaluating results through the entire portfolio and a long-term plan. When something becomes “hot,” it feels obvious, safe, and inevitable. But return-chasing often ends the same way: buying after a big run, then selling after the first real drawdown. That cycle turns investing into reaction instead of...
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2-3-26 Reflation Rotation | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Industrial and Basic Materials stocks are leading the “reflation” narrative—both have been strong, with Industrials tagging fresh highs and Materials extending a sharp run since December. The catch: these areas are increasingly overbought, and valuations eventually matter. The key question for 2026 is whether earnings and growth can “catch up” to prices that have already sprinted ahead. In this pre-market update, we walk through why disciplined investors rebalance to targets, take partial profits, and reduce risk without “selling everything.” We also highlight what rotations tend...
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2-2-26 Bears Are an Endangered Species
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts examines why bears have become an endangered species—and why that may be a warning sign rather than a confirmation of safety. Investor sentiment is extreme, margin debt is surging, speculative behavior is accelerating, and market leadership remains narrowly concentrated. When optimism becomes unanimous, history shows future returns tend to disappoint. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19- February & Earnings Season Continues 4:50 - The Action Behind Friday's Action 13:53 - Rationalizing Markets' Ups & Downs 15:23 - Percentage of Markets at All-new Highs 16:38 - The Reflationary Narrative...
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2-2-26 Rotation, Volatility, and Commodities Risk | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets delivered plenty of action Friday. The S&P 500 briefly broke below its 20-DMA but reversed higher, signaling that the broader uptrend remains intact despite rising volatility. Internally, markets continue to rotate—shifting between mega-cap growth and value—while staples have pushed toward overbought levels and technology has become increasingly oversold. We also explain the sharp moves in silver, gold, and oil. Commodity markets are driven by heavily leveraged futures positioning, and Friday’s decline reflected an unwinding of leverage—not a fundamental shock. With margin...
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1-30-26 Retirement Income When Markets Are Expensive
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets may still enjoy short-term momentum, but long-term retirement planning must confront a different reality: elevated valuations, lower forward returns, and rising sequence-of-returns risk. Richard Rosso explains why retirees face a near-term tailwind in market returns—but potentially long-term secular stagnation that demands tighter portfolio guardrails. Drawing on research from Michael Kitces and Wade D. Pfau, we discuss why historically tested retirement income strategies matter more today than at any point in the last two decades. Rich breaks down: Why short-term market strength can...
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1-29-26 Market Risks Behind Powell’s “Nonrestrictive” Stance
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, keeping policy in a 3.5%–3.75% range. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine how markets are reacting to Chair Jerome Powell’s message, and break down what the Fed is signaling—and why it could fuel market volatility ahead. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Mega Reports & Fed Fallout 4:31 - Markets Struggle after 7,000 9:33 - Inflation, Truflation, & Labor 14:14 - Chances of Rate Changes Higher or Lower? 16:44 - Current Growth Spurt is Unsustainable 19:10 - No Mention of QT/QE 21:10 - Citadel Securities; Risk-on Indicator 23:14 -...
info_outlineRussia just learned of a near-miss from a passing meteorite...TONIGHT! Lance discusses GDP estimates and other economic reports; Retail Sales are "okay," with no tell tale signs of Recession...for the moment. What will revisions to these reports show next year? What will be the impact of cutting government spending? Meanwhile, investors are very, very exuberant. What should investors expect for the rest of the year? Lance and Danny discuss old guy things: Backpain. There's a pullback coming: Time for a portfolio reality check? The challenge of portfolio rebalancing when exuberance is high; should you sell winners and buy losers now? Emerging Markets are not growing; losers are cheap for a reason. The danger of doing rebalancing willy-nilly. On being Contrarian: Markets have not rewarded those so inclined. Yet. Does not necessarily mean to be super-bearish. On being "out of consensus; the current set up is good for recession. What will cause it, we don't know. The potential risks to portfolios of reduced government spending. Lance & Danny review the recent Thanksgiving break with family and the concept of paying your own way; demographic trends, and the evolution of Generation-X as "sandwich parents." Kids coming home for the holidays vs "boomerang" kids; first paychecks and stringing Christmas lights (yeah, we were all over the place today!)
SEG-1: Meteorites, Russia, & Expectations for the Rest of 2204
SEG-2: Backpain & Pullbacks: Portfolio Rebalancing
SEG-3: On Being Contrarian
SEG-4a: Thanksgiving Reminiscing & Paying Your Way
SEG-4b: The Roberts Kids Home for the Holidays
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja9_6jy2TkA&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2423s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/leverage-and-speculation-are-at-extremes/
"Extreme Speculation Has Returned"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/extreme-speculation-has-returned/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, 12-4-24 What to Expect for the Rest of the Year is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ixjd2EjcoZw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "What Excessive Leverage Teaches Us"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s95h3jUr3c4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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