12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 12/09/2024
4-2-26 Fed Trap? Markets Face Inflation, Oil & Treasury Sell-Off
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are hitting a critical inflection point—and the stakes are rising fast. A major policy speech from Donald Trump sparked volatility, just as markets tested a key cluster of technical resistance. Now investors are facing a bigger question: is the market environment shifting from a short-term rally to something more structural? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: Why elevated oil prices could reignite inflation and complicate the Fed’s next move Whether the Federal Reserve is walking into a policy trap between inflation and slowing growth What matters more right now: GDP...
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4-2-26 200-DMA Rejection: Bounce or Breakdown? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets delivered the expected oversold bounce earlier this week, but momentum stalled right at a key technical level—the 20-DMA just beneath the 200-DMA. Now, with futures pointing lower following comments over night from President Donald Trump, the market faces its first real test after the recent rally attempt. Was that rally just a reflex bounce, or the start of something more sustainable? In this pre-market update, we break down the two critical paths forward: a deeper correction with a break of recent lows, or a more constructive setup where markets establish a higher low and rebuild...
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4-1-26 Wives Take Over: Money, Marriage, and Real Talk
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What happens when the wives take over the show? For this special April Fool’s Day edition of #TheRealInvestmentShow, the tables are turned as Michelle Ratliff & Christina Roberts step in to answer the questions investors never hear. From what Lance and Danny would really be doing outside of wealth management, to what happens if they suddenly win the lottery, we blend humor with surprisingly real financial insight. We also dig into the realities of managing money at home: Where couples disagree about finances Where financial values actually align How to teach kids a healthy...
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3-31-26 Are Markets Becoming Gambling?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
A major shift is happening in how younger investors approach the markets—and it may be the most important risk investors are ignoring. From AI-driven investing decisions to social media influencers shaping financial behavior, markets are increasingly influenced by speculation, speed, and hype. At the same time, the rise of options trading, crypto, and leveraged products is blurring the line between investing and gambling. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down: Why Gen Z is turning to AI and social media for investment advice The growing influence of financial influencers and crypto...
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3-31-26 Oversold Bounce or Bigger Breakdown? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets opened higher Monday but faded into another selloff as end-of-quarter rebalancing continues to drive volatility. With roughly $65 billion in portfolio adjustments underway, much of the recent price action is technical—not fundamental. Oversold conditions are building across the board. Momentum, relative strength, and sentiment all suggest the market is primed for a reflexive rally, with bonds already seeing buying interest and yields easing slightly. But beneath the surface, a bigger issue is emerging. While prices have declined, forward earnings estimates have not adjusted lower. If...
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3-30-26 Subprime Crisis 2.0? Private Credit Risks Explained
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts breaks down the growing stress in private credit markets, rising default risks, and the recent wave of gated withdrawals across major funds. With comparisons to the 2008 financial crisis gaining traction, investors are asking a critical question: are we facing Subprime Crisis 2.0? We examine what made the 2008 collapse so catastrophic—leverage, derivatives, and systemic contagion—and compare it to today’s private credit landscape. While defaults are rising and liquidity concerns are real, the structure of private credit is fundamentally different. Hosted by RIA Advisors...
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3-30-26 Sell the Bounce Before the Next Drop | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are down roughly 7% from their peak and under sustained pressure, with five consecutive weeks of negative returns—an unusually extended stretch that historically signals a near-term inflection point. Oversold conditions, weak momentum, and deeply negative money flows suggest a reflexive bounce is likely in the coming days. But investors should be cautious. This is not the end of the correction cycle. Lance Roberts breaks down why any near-term rally should be used to rebalance risk—not chase upside. With geopolitical catalysts like Iran tensions and oil price volatility acting as...
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3-27-26 How to Beat the 4 Biggest Retirement Risks
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most retirement plans focus on savings and returns—but that’s not what truly puts retirement at risk. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down the four biggest threats retirees face: longevity, inflation, market volatility, and emotional decision-making, and more importantly, how to navigate them. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Rich's Dreams 2:03 - Dynamic Learning Series 3:02 - Easter Candy Inflation & Post-Covid Behaviors 7:31 - Panoramic Sugar Eggs &...
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3-26-26 Will AI Trigger the Next Great Depression?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will artificial intelligence spark the next economic boom—or trigger a crisis rivaling the Great Depression? A growing debate on Wall Street is emerging after research scenarios like the “Global Intelligence Crisis” raised concerns about a potential AI-driven economic shock. The core question is simple but critical: Will AI create unprecedented productivity and prosperity, or will it displace jobs faster than the economy can adapt? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down both sides. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager,...
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3-26-26 Markets Breakdown or Bounce? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are testing the 200-DMA from below, a key resistance level. Failure to break above could increase downside pressure, but end-of-quarter rebalancing (~$62B in buying) may provide near-term support. Momentum is oversold, with relative strength starting to improve. A confirmed buy signal and positive divergence could drive a move toward 6,700, with resistance at the 20-DMA. Stay patient—markets can remain oversold, but improving technicals suggest potential for a recovery into early summer. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton,...
info_outlineLance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation is better than deflation, all over the world. Markets have factored-in a 25-bp rate cut, but NOT a Fed pause. The problem with forecasting: Predictions must be precise, actionable, and time-specific. Why we watch train wrecks: Why not mandate a 20% correction each year? (Markets are so elevated, a 20% correction would be a drop in the bucket.) What happens if we have a 50% correction?? It'd put us back to where we were in 2020. Why banks failed in 1929 vs today: Depositors would not lose their money (FDIC). 2025 earnings growth estimate are 19% (vs 9% historically). Lance looks at cycles vs trends (Lance's first bank job). Cycle context & psychology. Most cycles are too long to be practical. "We must invest for the time frame in which we have control." Trend-following is better than cyclical tracking. Lance's 60th birthday, cursive writing, and Phoenician writing. The impact of not saving each year: Time frames are critical.
SEG-1: Sloppy Trading Ahead
SEG-2: Where's the Money Coming From?
SEG-3: Why We Watch Train Crashes
SEG-4: Cycles vs Trends
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting Up to Rally," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuRU3UTCD1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s
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Our previous show is here: "Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2277s
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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