12-9-24 Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 12/09/2024
3-26-26 Will AI Trigger the Next Great Depression?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Will artificial intelligence spark the next economic boom—or trigger a crisis rivaling the Great Depression? A growing debate on Wall Street is emerging after research scenarios like the “Global Intelligence Crisis” raised concerns about a potential AI-driven economic shock. The core question is simple but critical: Will AI create unprecedented productivity and prosperity, or will it displace jobs faster than the economy can adapt? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down both sides. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager,...
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3-26-26 Markets Breakdown or Bounce? | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are testing the 200-DMA from below, a key resistance level. Failure to break above could increase downside pressure, but end-of-quarter rebalancing (~$62B in buying) may provide near-term support. Momentum is oversold, with relative strength starting to improve. A confirmed buy signal and positive divergence could drive a move toward 6,700, with resistance at the 20-DMA. Stay patient—markets can remain oversold, but improving technicals suggest potential for a recovery into early summer. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton,...
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3-25-26 Q&A Wednesday: Markets, Money & Your Questions Answered
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your biggest questions about the markets, investing, and personal finance in today’s rapidly changing economic environment. From stock market volatility and interest rates to long-term investing strategies and risk management, nothing is off limits. Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced investor, this session is built around what you want to know right now. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:13 -...
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3-25-26 Markets Poised for Oversold Bounce | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets enter the pre-market deeply oversold, with sentiment turning increasingly negative—conditions that often lead to a short-term reflex rally. Investors are looking for a catalyst, and even minor geopolitical headlines could spark buying pressure. Key technical levels are in focus today, including the 200-day moving average and a major resistance zone between 6,700 and 6,800, where the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages converge. This area is packed with trapped longs and heavy volume, suggesting any rally into this range could face selling pressure. Volume has been declining,...
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3-24-26 Asset Allocation, Benchmarks, and High-Yield Debt Traps
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance Roberts and Jon Penn tackle the most pressing portfolio questions investors and retirees are asking right now: Challenge the assumption that older investors should automatically shift to ultra-conservative allocations Whether every account in a multi-account household needs the same investment strategy why Roth IRAs may warrant a more aggressive growth posture How much weight each equity position should carry, and how many stocks is too many Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by...
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3-24-26 Markets Stall - Why We're Raising Cash | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets opened Monday above the 200-day moving average but failed to hold — and that failure matters. We break down why we're reducing market exposure by raising cash, what the cluster of trapped longs means for any rally attempt, and why the 20-, 50-, and 100-DMA are all stacking up as overhead resistance. This is not a crash call. It is a disciplined risk management move while the market works through a technically compromised structure. Until price reclaims the 200-DMA on a sustained basis, we are advising caution. Watch to understand the full picture before the opening bell. Key topics...
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3-23-26 200-DMA Broken – Bear Market or Buy Signal?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The S&P 500 just broke its 200-day moving average. Is this a bear market signal or a historic buying opportunity? The answer depends on a clear set of warning indicators – and right now, only two of six are flashing red. Lance Roberts comments in real-time as news of a delay in miliary strikes on Iran power stations affects pre-market action. Lance also breaks down every 200-DMA break since 2000, separating the seven sustained crashes from the five whipsaw recoveries. The data gap is stark: average 12-month return after a sustained break is -4.0%, versus +19.8% after a brief one. We walk...
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3-23-26 Trump-Iran News Reverses Futures | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets confirmed a break below the 200-Day Moving Average on Friday — amplified by Options Expiration Day selling. Then a single headline changed everything. During this live pre-market update, news broke that President Trump was postponing military strikes on Iranian power plants — instantly reversing market futures and setting up a significant bounce at the open. This is exactly why knee-jerk reactions can destroy your trading account. One headline. One move. Markets potentially back above the 200-DMA. Stay disciplined. Stay informed. Watch before the open. Subscribe for daily...
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3-20-26 Tax Strategies That Actually Save You Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Most people think about taxes once a year. Smart investors think about them every year. Richard Rosso & Sarah Buenger break down the critical difference between tax preparation and true tax planning, and why that distinction could be worth thousands of dollars to your portfolio over time. We'll walk through real-world anonymous case studies from our client work, including how we helped one client sell nearly half of a concentrated stock position while staying entirely within the 0% capital gains bracket. We also cover Roth conversion timing, IRMAA bracket management, tax-efficient...
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3-19-26 Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The private credit market has exploded from under $500 billion a decade ago to $1.2 trillion domestically and $1.7 trillion globally — and stress is building fast. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down exactly what private credit is, who the major players are, and why rising credit stress could force the Federal Reserve's hand — even if inflation and unemployment don't justify it. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 1:02 - Cash & Girl...
info_outlineLance's Husbands' Christmas shopping warning service; markets are now in second week of sloppy trading. Portfolios out-of-balance will trigger volatility as managers adjust weighting. There is a possible correction coming, BUT markets could continue to rally all the way into the New Year. Tesla is up 54% since the election; a plethora of ETF's: all money flows feed into underlying stocks; $1-T into ETF's this year. Where will the next Trillion come from? What's the Risk for market correction? Volatility Index is down to 13; no one is betting on a crash. Where are the money in-flows originating? When inflation is better than deflation, all over the world. Markets have factored-in a 25-bp rate cut, but NOT a Fed pause. The problem with forecasting: Predictions must be precise, actionable, and time-specific. Why we watch train wrecks: Why not mandate a 20% correction each year? (Markets are so elevated, a 20% correction would be a drop in the bucket.) What happens if we have a 50% correction?? It'd put us back to where we were in 2020. Why banks failed in 1929 vs today: Depositors would not lose their money (FDIC). 2025 earnings growth estimate are 19% (vs 9% historically). Lance looks at cycles vs trends (Lance's first bank job). Cycle context & psychology. Most cycles are too long to be practical. "We must invest for the time frame in which we have control." Trend-following is better than cyclical tracking. Lance's 60th birthday, cursive writing, and Phoenician writing. The impact of not saving each year: Time frames are critical.
SEG-1: Sloppy Trading Ahead
SEG-2: Where's the Money Coming From?
SEG-3: Why We Watch Train Crashes
SEG-4: Cycles vs Trends
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Setting Up to Rally," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuRU3UTCD1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=2s
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Our previous show is here: "Is Another Liquidity Crisis Near?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQFQg-9b9EQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAuhi47sn298HrsWYwmg8MV7d&index=1&t=2277s
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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