Libsyn Directory

12-10-24 Portfolio Re-balancing & High Valuation Risks

Release Date: 12/10/2024

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Lance and Michael interpret the latest CPI, PPI, PCE, and GDP numbers: Which one is most-meaningful to the Fed? Earnings Season continues with Big Banks reporting; JPMorgan kills it, but how are regional banks faring? Stock buy backs this time around are expected to exceed $1-Trillion. mostly benefitting large cap stocks. Markets cling to 100-DMA, and aim for the 50-DMA to set up to rally. Michael discusses portfolio management, and Lance previews his re-release on portfolio gardening. Revealing analysis of "spikey data" in CPI and PPI calculus. Inflation remains sticky at high levels. CPI...

1-16-25 Markets Set Up to Rally

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets have been clinging by fingernails to the 100-DMA in anticipation of PPI & CPI results; markets in response moved above the 20-DMA, and this morning markets are wrestling with two key areas: The 50-DMA and a declining top trendline that is intersecting with the 50-DMA. If markets can get above the 50-DMA and hold it, that will set up markets to rally tomorrow, trigger a MACD buy signal, and push markets upwards toward 6,000. We are starting to see money flows turn positive. We're still not out of the woods on inflation concerns, however, so use any rally to rebalance risk. Hosted by...

1-15-25 CPI: The Big Reveal

The Real Investment Show Podcast

It's CPI Day (December Core Inflation clocked-in at a lower than expected .2%) so let's pin it all on the Fed. Weaker PPI & Higher Trasnportation costs; Used car prices are keeping inflation elevated, thanks to storm and fire loss replacement demand. Markets flirting w 100_DMA, holiding support; what a weaker CPI print may mean. Lance pranks Danny with book sales for "Bull Dog" Ratliff; the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index surge, post-election; The concept of an 'Exeternal Revenu Service' vs reality; sentiment-driven surveys vs reality. Sentiment and outlooks vs stock price...

1-15-25 CPI Encourages Markets

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets have been flirting with the 100-DMA over the past few days, breaking it twice. But money flows have been coming into the markets, enabling recovery by the end of the day, and holding support at that level. Money flows still have a slight, negative tinge, but it's improving. Any good news today will result in a fairly decent rebound in the markets. This morning's CPI report reflected lighter core inflation than expected for December. Lance explains why we increased exposure to energy stocks and reduced other positions ahead of earnings reports. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment...

1-14-25 Tactically Bearish As Risks Increase

The Real Investment Show Podcast

PPI & CPI Preview: Earnings season is about to commence, followed by the opening of the Buy Back window. Higher yields (and term premiums) are weighing on markets. Term premiums are just a measure of sentiment; watch what companies say, impacted by higher yields. Markets rally to just above the 100-DMA. Lance reviews investor sentiment, credit spreads, and market valuation (which charts). Noting the (limited) impact of taffis on a service-oriented economy. Being “tactically bearish” does NOT mean we are expecting a bear market or a severe market crash. Regarding portfolio management,...

1-14-25 PPI Disappoints

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets rally to close just above 100-DMA on Monday. (If you're using a moving average as a stop-loss, don't initially react to a break!) Markets are typically oversold by the time those moving averages are violated. This morning's PPI will weigh on markets today (0.2% vs 0.4% EST), as will tomorrow's CPI number. There is lots of volatility potential for the next few days. With this cooler PPI print, markets could move higher: Markets are very negatively biased towards these reports, with expectations for a hotter number. How will markets respond to today's cooler count? Hosted by RIA...

1-13-25 Investor Resolutions for 2025

The Real Investment Show Podcast

The Cleveland Fed's expectations for increased inflation; Oil prices rise on increased Russia sacntions (thanks, Joe Biden); economic impact of California wildfires & the Broken Window Theory: There will be a short-term uptick from rebuilding activity. Markets point lower on hawkish Fed tone; current correction process is normal. There is not data to support investor sentiment on inflation sparked by tariffs; how we really create inflation. Employment increases inflation. Companies are front-running tariffs. Rising interest rates lead to valuation reversals. Every year, Dalbar Research...

1-13-25 How Low Can Markets Go?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets will open lower this morning on continued inflation fears and the Fed's more hawkish stance. BUT...stocks have been really over bought and over deviated: Remember in December we were talking about over deviated stocks and the need for a correction. So now, selling pressure is continuing to revert that overbought condition, and so a correction should be no surprise. If markets do not recover today (we're right on the 100-DMA), there really is no additional support until markets go significantly lower towards the 200-DMA. That being said, it's not going to take s lot to create a bit of a...

1-10-25 What the Social Security Fairness Acts Means for Your Retirement

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Richard and Jonathan discuss the narratives that are driving the markets, and the fear factor for bond investors. Is the response to tariff threats an over-reaction? How to deal with emotions in investing. Menwhile, job satisfaction is highest among the 60+ crowd: The group has been working longer, and understands the value of socialization; retirement planning shold include qualitative elements. A look at Gen-z Worth Ethic. The Social Security Fairness Act is now the law of the land, signed on Sunday by President Biden. It promises to erase rules that penalized some retirees by eliminating...

1-9-25 Why Are Bond Yields Rising?

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Markets barely achieved a positive close on Wednesday, to create a string of positive action for the first five trading days in January. (Markets are closed today in honor of the late President Jimmy Carter.) There's a market consolidation underway, with the 20-DMA and 50-DMA about to cross. Lance & Michael discuss the Fed's sentiment shift about inflation, and the non-corellation between interest rates and inflation. The Fed may have cut interest rates, but markets have raised them; the actual effects of Fed rate cuts are deflationary. Fed policy is still restrictive; economy is back to...

More Episodes

Post-election consumer confidence is rocketing higher. Inflation Data is coming: CPI & PPI which will be digested in time for next week's Fed meeting. Inflation numbers are likely to tick up from YOY comparisons. Portfolio re-balancing commences. What does financial success look like? Lance and Jonathan review the answers by-generations. Stocks vs Bonds: Earnings growth expectations are too high; what happens if we don't meet them? It was easy managing money this year... A review of Bob Farrell's Ten Investment Rules, with a focus on #9: When all experts agree... Tax-loss Harvesting & RMD's: Do it now. (Why you shouldn't wait until after Christmas.) Understanding the Wash-Sale Rule; speculate in taxable accounts, not IRA's and 401-k's.

SEG-1: Post-election Confidence & Portfolio Re-balancing
SEG-2: What Financial Success Looks Like - not
SEG-3: What If We Don't Meet 2025 Expectations?
SEG-4: Tax Loss Harvesting & RMD's - Do It Now

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's show video here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASrF7t64kY&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching."
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/portfolio-rebalancing-and-valuations-two-risks-we-are-watching/
"2025 – Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/2025-do-economic-indicators-support-bullish-outlooks/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will the Markets Re-balance?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z-IVRw7qXw&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why Earnings Can't Outgrow the Economy"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRF6slc1bew&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2s
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