5-12-25 How to Deal with a Bear Market Rally
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 05/12/2025
7-15-25 Two Dad's on Money
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What kinds of traps and pitfalls could younger investors be falling into? Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn provide advice from Two Dad's on Money in today's episode: Nvidia is shipping its H-20 chips to China; Lance previews this week's CPI and PPI reports; earnings season is underway, stock buy backs have dominated, surging higher than ever, but will taper; Markets prepare for sector rotations. Lance & Jonathan discuss the differences betweem trading and speculating, the Math of Loss, and the cost of starting over. How to successfully speculate with little money (there are some caveats!)...
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7-15-25 Markets Set for Rotation | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Another market rally Monday, flirting again with all-time highs. While there is nothing overall concerning about the markets, they're always setting up for some kind of rotation. There are a few things to pay attention to now. The market is being primarily driven by three sectors: Industrials, Transportation, and Technology. Those secotrs have been outperforming relative to the S&P. Technology has been leading the charge, of late; Industrials have also been posting well. Both are tied to the AI buildout. What will happen next, as these sectors become over bought, is money moving to...
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7-14-25 Relative Returns Or Absolute: What’s More Important?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings Season has commenced with lowered expectations, meaning higher "beat" rates for companies, thanks to the lowered bar. Market react mildly to Mexican & Canadian 30% Tariffs; a warning for this week's CPI Report: The past four reports have been lower than expected, so a much higher number may be printed this time around. A three-month preview of market probabilities shows 50-50 chance of continued bullish activity; BUT, markets are over bought, and the odds are even for a correction of as much as 5% back to the 6,000 level. Lance shares his family's weekend exploits with Tex Mex...
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7-14-25 Market Risks Ahead of Earnings Season | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings Season begins this week; technically, markets are doing okay. This weekend's Bull Bear Report lays out a three month preview of what markets are likely to do on a probability basis. There is a 50-50 chance the current bull market trend will contimnue, because there's not a lot to bring this market down. BUT...the other side of that argument includes a choppy market thru the end of the year, and/or we get a correction at some point. Looking at markets from back in May, things were very over bought, leading to a correction back to the 200-DMA, which was a very good set up for adding...
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7-11-25 What the Big Beautiful Bill Means for Your Money & Retirement
The Real Investment Show Podcast
What is the impact of the recently-passed Big Beautiful Bill on your money and retirement plans? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty plumb the depths of the legislation to find the good--and the bad--effects it will have. Richard review the latest round of tariffs on Canada (markets don't care), and AI is promising to be a game changer in the middle management job market. The Big Beautiful Bill has benefits and drawbacks: there are caps and limitations, as well as enhancements for charitable giving; there is no "no taxes" on Social Security; changes in SS for future generations will likely be...
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7-10-25 Will Lower Rates Cure Higher Prices?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
As inflation remains elevated and the Federal Reserve begins to shift its tone, markets are asking: Will lower interest rates actually bring prices down — or make them worse? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz unpack the delicate balance between monetary policy, consumer behavior, and price pressures: * The historical relationship between rate cuts and inflation * Why inflation may be more “sticky” than expected * How consumer demand and debt loads are reshaped by lower rates * The unintended consequences of looser policy on asset prices * What this means for investors and retirees going...
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7-10-25 Nvidia is not Dead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Economists are expecting a sharp pick up in economic growth before the end of the year, despite earlier, pre-tariff weaknesses. News about more threatened tariffs notwithstanding, economists are looking past all that. Interestingly, that's the needed premise to support expectations for much stronger earnings growth from analysts into the end of the year. So future expectations are seeming to support where valuations are trading. 6,900 is now a realistic target by the end of the year for analysts. This elevated sentiment and sheer exuberance should be taken as a caution sign because markets are...
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7-9-25 How to Protect Your Multi-decade Retirement From Inflation
The Real Investment Show Podcast
More Tariff trouble on the horizon, but markets have seen this movie before (The Stick & Carrot Show). Market risk remains, as markets are highly deviated. Sentiment remains positive; there's a large gap between market performance and economic data, however. Deviations tend to resolve themselves to the downside. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff reveal how to shield your retirement savings from decades of inflation: The necessity of Inflation and how to deal with it (inflation is a function of economic growth); the mistake of being too conservative, fear of The Black Swan that never...
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7-9-25 Market Risk is Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The big divergences between markets and their moving averages typically resolve themselves to the downside. There is now risk down to about 6,000 on the S&P, which would bring us back to the breakout prior to the all-time high. A correction would help reset the market's over bought condition. Volatility is down; that's a function of options trading, and no one seems to want to hedge portfolios against a downsized market. There is no risk control in portfolios presently because investors would rather chase the upside in markets. That's always a danger. A correction could come at any time....
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7-8-25 ETF's Are Eating the World
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Earnings season is upon us; will volatility pick up? A bigger question will be how tariffs may affect corporate earnings. Employment numbers are dipping into contraction zone as the economy slows. Markets sell off on renewed tariff news. Crude oil prices are creeping back up. No one is expecting correction...which is when they usually appear. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have exploded in popularity—driving a massive shift from active to passive investing. But is this trend distorting markets and concentrating risk? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn explore how ETF growth may be reshaping price...
info_outlineIt's Lance Roberts' 60th birthday, and the birthday faery made an early visit to the studio. Markets will be boosted today by news of an agreement between the US and China over tariffs. Is the recent market rebound a sign of recovery—or just a classic bear market trap?
Lance Roberts breaks down what defines a bear market rally, why investors often get whipsawed by false hope, and how to position your portfolio amid short-term optimism and long-term uncertainty. With earnings season in full swing and rate cuts still in question, we'll explore whether this bounce has legs or is setting up for another leg lower. Lance is looking for a classic truck and has his eye on a '71 International Scout; interestingly, commentary on valuations, and the prices people are willing to pay. A history lesson on market corrections, recessions, and bottoms (with charts); why it's important to not ignore bear market signs.
SEG-1: 60th Birthday, Mother's Day & Bear Market Rally
SEG-2a: Bidding on a '71 Scout
SEG-2b: Valuations Are What People Are Willing to Pay
SEG-3: Bear Market Rallies and Market Bottoms
SEG-4: Do Not Ignore Bear Market Signs
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's video on YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTZmVaVMzpg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
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Articles mention in this show:
"A Bear Market Rally?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/a-bear-market-rally/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "S5-12-25 Do You Want to Make Some Money?" is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngmFyV6B9TY&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Will Tax Reform Stall?" and "Money Advice for Single Moms on Mother's Day:"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_0Zpmbtb-I&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=2s
Watch the first-hour of the show here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwfW2yddsWI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=9s
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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