7-22-25 Bonds Are Trapped in a Trading Range | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 07/22/2025
8-1-25 Herd Mentality Could Be Costing You Big
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Why do investors so often buy high and sell low? Jonathan Penn & Matt Doyle expose the dangers of herd mentality in the stock market, how FOMO (fear of missing out) drives bad decisions, and what behavioral finance teaches us about avoiding costly investing mistakes. Learn how to recognize crowd behavior—and how to protect your portfolio from emotional traps. Jon & Matt also cover market response to new tariffs, and whether markets will catch a breather. Transitioning from an accumulator to a distributor in terms of cash flow in retirement. An interesting comparison between Ricky...
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7-31-25 The Fed Holds Firm
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in its latest policy meeting, signaling a firm stance amid inflation concerns, and despite unchecked market bullishness. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down what the Fed's decision means for investors, the economy, and your portfolio. AI datacenter buildouts are showing up in economic data...but, the 3% GDP print has a more dire undertone: Strip out the build outs, and the economy is weaker than it appears. Is dissention among Fed governors politically motivated, or being economically cautious? Home prices are declining; housing is...
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7-31-25 Consider the Risks Even in Bullish Markets | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are doing just fine despite a sell-off towards the 20-DMA, but did not close at that level. Markets will likely have a positive day Thursday overall. Markets are still very over bought, which will limit upside action; still very close to moving up to 6,400 on the S&P (a little hard to believe following April's 20% drop FROM 6,000 and we're now back almost to 6,400). Markets are getting fairly extended, although risk is contained for the moment; earnings are coming in much better than expected. There is still a lot of bullish bias in the markets, and that's keeping things elevated....
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7-30-25 How to Effectively Hedge Against Inflation
The Real Investment Show Podcast
It's a mega-earnings report day, and a Fed Meeting day, to boot; the notion among some investors that 20% returns are normal is scary. The Fed is expected to hold steady on interest rates, but there is dissention in the ranks of Fed Governors. Inflation erodes your purchasing power—are you prepared? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down smart strategies to hedge against inflation and protect your wealth. Lance and Danny commiserate on kids home for the Summer and then off to college. You've got to have inflation for economic growth; the best hedge against inflation, historically, is...
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7-30-25 Capturing Rotation in Market Correction | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Healthcare stocks have been under a lot of pressure of late as markets continue in rotational moves. Healthcare has been basing, going back to April; not going up, not going down, just traveling sideways. Meanwhile, Technology has been doing very, very well...and getting very, very over bought (looks a lot like the S&P 500). If we start to see a correctional move in the S&P, we could see a move to areas in which there is good fundamental value (like Healthcare), and also into areas that have been beaten up: They're not going down anymore, but they haven't been rising, either. These...
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7-29-25 Two Dads on Money - Grit, Grind, & Glam
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue their bullish trend; Infrastructure build-out for AI is beginning to show up in data. Money flows return to US markets. Lance shares the bet he has with his dog; Lance & Jon share their "Two Dads" wisdom for fresh college grads' job searched & career choices, and offer three pillars for success: ○ Grit: Passion + perseverance. Stick through setbacks, stay committed, believe effort matters more than innate talent. ○ Grind: The value of hard work—late nights, travel, dedication. Equally important: know your limits and prioritize recovery to...
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7-29-25 Stocks Appreciate Money Flows | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets continue to perform bullishly, stringing together a sixth day of gains on Monday. If Tuesday follows suit, markets will stretch out a line of positive closes stacking up against an inevitable down day, sooner or later. The question is whether markets will cross the 20-DMA: A pullback to 6,260 would not be surprising at all. WHEN that happens, we'll look next to the 50-DMA at around 6,280 and to the 200-DMA below that at 5,870. All that to say, there is some downside risk to the market. Meanwhile, Emerging Markets are improving, but still trading sideways; as money flows head back into...
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7-28-25 Big Tech Earnings
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Lance reviews the Big News from the weekend, the trade accord between the US and the European Union, and previews the data that will drive markets this week: PCE report and a Fed meeting on tap. What will move markets? Commentary on the non-impact of Tariffs: Markets have already priced-in any change, as markets adapt. What the Fed says about QT/QE will matter. Lance shares another family drama episode, with retail therapy and a "people-cott" on Ulta make up. There is no reason to be overly bearish on markets for now; more people are calling for correction now (which means it will only be...
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7-28-25 Prelude to Pullback | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
We're about to enter the two months of the year when volatility begins to pick up; August and September tend to be weaker months. Markets have had a very long stretch with minimal movement. Two things to note: Markets have been above the 20-DMA for 68-days (one of the longest stretches in history). Money flows are beginning to decline, which is a sign of investor exhaustion. Sentiment and positioning are very bullish, and there has been excess speculation as the market has continued to grind higher. At this point it is reasonable to expect a short-term pullback, or at least a consolidation in...
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7-25-25 Are You a Meme-stock Mania Dork?
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Is your portfolio full of DORKs? Jonathan Penn and Jonathan McCarty unpack the return of meme stock mania and four speculative favorites: DNUT (Krispy Kreme), OPEN (Opendoor), RKLB (Rocket Lab), and KSS (Kohl's). These retail-loved names are soaring again—but should you follow the hype or stay grounded? We'll discuss why these stocks are rallying, the behavioral finance behind retail speculation, and the portfolio risks in chasing "lottery ticket" trades. Jonathan & Jonathan also memorialize Ozzy Osborne and Hulk Hogan; how college-grads' first jobs' earnings are not as rosy as...
info_outlineBonds have been trapped in a trading range for some time, with Yields stuck at around 4.3-4.4%. This is a function of economic growth and inflation. If you want to know where interest rates should trade (in terms of the Ten-year Treasury), it's GDP + Inflation: There is about an 84% correlation going all the way back to 1970. Technically speaking, there's a giant wedge being built into Yields, and they're going to break out to one side or the other. If to the upside, rates will move up to about 4.8%, maybe 4.9%; some kind of inflationary pressure is going to be needed to raise that rate above GDP to add to that total return. However, if the economy slows, we could see Yields break down below the wedge, putting rates closer to 4%, maybe 3.5%. The rest of the markets are doing fine for now. Another wedge pattern is also developing, and a break out to the downside is going to lead to that correction we've been expecting. Interestingly, the NASDAQ has traded above its 20-DMA for over 60-days, the longest such stretch since 1999. Money flows are extended; that typically marks market peaks. Retail trading flows appear to be reaching a level of exhaustion.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch today's video here:
https://youtu.be/TYCtn9zlFKU
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/retail-speculation-is-back-with-a-vengeance/
"Company Buybacks Are Surging"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/company-buybacks-are-surging/
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https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/
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Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
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