1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity? Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability. Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global...
info_outline
1-13-26 Market Turbulence - Earnings Test Ahead | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
With earnings season underway and markets stretched, conditions suggest rising market turbulence as price discovery accelerates. JPMorgan Chase kicked things off with a technical earnings miss after an extraordinary multi-year rally, highlighting how stretched both individual stocks and the broader market have become. While markets remain on a buy signal and continue to hover near all-time highs, deviations from key moving averages and increasingly overbought conditions suggest a near-term pullback would be healthy—and not unexpected. Financial heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and...
info_outline
1-12-26 Investor Lessons From 2025 for 2026
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets opened 2026 with early gains, improving breadth, and a rotation toward value—but mixed fundamentals and elevated expectations remain beneath the surface. Lance Roberts reviews key investor lessons from 2025 that matter most as we head into 2026. We review what worked, what failed, and why market narratives once again misled investors. Topics include value versus growth, volatility versus risk, the role of cash, earnings-driven returns, portfolio rebalancing, and why discipline—not prediction—remains the foundation of long-term investing. We also examine the technical backdrop for...
info_outline
1-12-26 Volatility Risk Rising | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets closed at new highs but are flashing short-term overbought signals. Unexpected weekend headlines around a potential investigation tied to the Fed introduced a volatility catalyst markets were not pricing in—especially at elevated levels. While the issue itself is unlikely to become a long-term concern, surprises are often what trigger near-term selling pressure. With earnings season approaching, volatility risk is more likely to come from corporate results than headlines. We discuss why managing risk, rebalancing portfolios, and preparing for routine pullbacks matter when markets are...
info_outline
1-9-26 Big Beautiful Tax Breaks - 7 Changes for the 2026 Tax Season
The Real Investment Show Podcast
The 2026 tax season is shaping up to look very different—especially for retirees, near-retirees, and late-career workers. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down some major tax changes tied to the “One Big Beautiful Bill” and recent retirement legislation that could materially impact your tax planning strategy. From higher standard deductions and new age-based write-offs to expanded SALT limits, auto-loan interest deductions, and larger 401(k) catch-up contributions, these changes create both opportunities and planning traps. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - The Big D in the OBBB 3:52 -...
info_outline
1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Every year, Wall Street rolls out confident forecasts for where the S&P 500 will end the year—and every year those projections are treated as actionable insight. For 2026, analyst expectations cluster around modestly positive returns, even as valuations sit near historical extremes and macro risks continue to build. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched...
info_outline
1-8-26 Sector Rotation Quietly Begins | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pulled back modestly Wednesday after reaching an intraday all-time high, as afternoon selling trimmed gains. While overall market trends remain constructive and prices are well above key moving averages, leadership is beginning to shift beneath the surface. Healthcare—one of the most oversold sectors back in September—has now rotated into the most overbought territory, with standout strength from names like Google and Eli Lilly. Meanwhile, traditionally defensive areas such as Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate are now among the most oversold sectors, suggesting potential...
info_outline
1-7-25 Open Chat Q&A: Markets, Earnings, Taxes & Portfolio Strategy
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets are hitting all-time highs, earnings expectations are rising, and investors are navigating everything from oil prices to Roth conversions. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take live viewer questions and explore the themes investors are most focused on right now. Topics discussed include why earnings may be the primary market driver this year, what recent all-time highs signal for forward returns, and how capital flows are shifting across sectors and asset classes. We also examine oil markets—WTI pricing, energy stocks, Venezuela supply dynamics—and what the “sweet spot” for...
info_outline
1-7-26 Markets Hit Highs as Complacency Builds | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Markets pushed to a new all-time high after successfully testing the 20-day moving average, with relative strength improving and momentum signals turning positive. However, following yesterday’s strong rally, futures are pointing slightly lower this morning. The Dow is approaching the psychologically important 50,000 level, while ten-year Treasury yields are beginning to ease after a recent surge. That shift could signal early rotation from equity risk back toward bonds. Volatility remains a key indicator to watch—despite November’s spike, the VIX is holding near 15, reflecting elevated...
info_outline
1-6-26 Financial Nihilism vs. Financial Planning
The Real Investment Show Podcast
More investors—especially Millennials and Gen Z—are treating markets like a casino. Not because they’re reckless, but because the traditional path to financial security feels broken. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn break down Financial Nihilism vs. Financial Planning: why speculative behavior is rising, and what still works when confidence in long-term investing erodes. Options trading, crypto, meme assets, and betting apps offer fast outcomes in a world where housing is expensive, debt is high, and patience feels unrewarded. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Index Weaker than Expected 4:25 -...
info_outlineIt’s Fed Day, and today’s Live Q&A covers what investors should expect as markets position around the announcement, why volatility may pick up afterward, and how this week’s action shapes the potential for a Santa Claus Rally. We also discuss whether the Fed has stepped back from its inflation mandate, what that means for long bonds, and how Treasury supply-and-demand dynamics factor into portfolio risk.
Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff review the growth outlook for the AI sector, the power-cost assumptions built into datacenter models, the economic effects of the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” and the $125 billion in tariff revenue collected this year—along with what tariffs really contribute to inflation. Additional topics include how to read 2x–3x standard deviations using Bollinger Band concepts, which data streams matter most (and where to find them), the link between inflation and economic growth, and practical insights on silver, ETF buy-and-hold strategies, NUA planning, valuation challenges when stocks trade at 25x earnings, and the realities of the “dollar debasement” narrative. As always, we approach these discussions pragmatically: no magic bullets, and market cycles end when they end.
Use the chapter markers below to jump to any topic.
0:00 - INTRO
0:18 - Fed Day Anticipation
4:28 - More Market Volatility Possible Following Fed Meeting
9:14 - Getting ready for Santa
10:02 - Has the Fed given up on their inflation mandate?
13:31 - What's the impact on Long bonds?
15:35 - What is the outlook for AI sector growth?
18:30 -Do Datacenter owners use models assuming power subsidization?
19:06 - What is the impact on the economy from the One Big Beautiful Bill?
22:45 - How much in tariffs have been collected this year? $125-B
25:23 - Explain 2x, 3x standard deviations from average (Bollinger Band articles)
28:43 - What data to watch (and where can you find it)?
31:15 - Inflation: true impact of tariffs? True sources of Inflation: No inflation, no economic growth
35:37 - Silver: Advisors' Kryptonite? (Don't forget to take profits.)
39:29 - Is buy-and-hold with ETF's a good passive investing policy?
43:56 - Does it worry you that the treasury refi uses all T-bills?
45:18 - Is Dollar Debasement real? No--it's a narrative.
46:09 - Using NUA Tax Strategies
46:55 - Buying stocks at 25x
48-48 - Treasury Yields supply & demand dynamics
49:44 - Buying stocks at multiples and valuations
51:10 - Measuring risk in portfolio (60/40 allocation)
53:33 - Our pragmatism
54:36 - No magic bullet - bubbles pop when they pop (Chart: running trend line)
58:05 - Coming Attractions
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
-------
Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v363w8PFNw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
-------
The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Pause Before the Fed: Time to Trim Risk?," is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
-------
Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:
"Bullish Case Or Bearish Backdrop"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bullish-case-or-bearish-backdrop/
--------
REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:"
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator
-------
Watch our previous show, "Dealing with Debt & Smart Money Moves" here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPM7ef0BKg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1
--------
Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/
--------
SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
--------
Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
--------
Subscribe to SimpleVisor:
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
--------
Connect with us on social:
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#StockMarket #FedDecision #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #BitcoinUpdate
#MarketOutlook #BitcoinUpdate #FedMeeting #YearEndRally #InvestingQandA