2-17-26 100-DMA Test - Momentum Fades, Rotation Shifts | Before the Bell
The Real Investment Show Podcast
Release Date: 02/17/2026
The Real Investment Show Podcast
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Markets opened higher Monday but faded into another selloff as end-of-quarter rebalancing continues to drive volatility. With roughly $65 billion in portfolio adjustments underway, much of the recent price action is technical—not fundamental. Oversold conditions are building across the board. Momentum, relative strength, and sentiment all suggest the market is primed for a reflexive rally, with bonds already seeing buying interest and yields easing slightly. But beneath the surface, a bigger issue is emerging. While prices have declined, forward earnings estimates have not adjusted lower. If...
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Markets are testing the 200-DMA from below, a key resistance level. Failure to break above could increase downside pressure, but end-of-quarter rebalancing (~$62B in buying) may provide near-term support. Momentum is oversold, with relative strength starting to improve. A confirmed buy signal and positive divergence could drive a move toward 6,700, with resistance at the 20-DMA. Stay patient—markets can remain oversold, but improving technicals suggest potential for a recovery into early summer. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton,...
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Markets enter the pre-market deeply oversold, with sentiment turning increasingly negative—conditions that often lead to a short-term reflex rally. Investors are looking for a catalyst, and even minor geopolitical headlines could spark buying pressure. Key technical levels are in focus today, including the 200-day moving average and a major resistance zone between 6,700 and 6,800, where the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages converge. This area is packed with trapped longs and heavy volume, suggesting any rally into this range could face selling pressure. Volume has been declining,...
info_outlineMarkets held the 100-DMA on Friday, but that support is in focus again today. The bigger issue is a negative divergence: price has risen while momentum and relative strength have faded.
If the 100-DMA breaks, the next key level is the 200-DMA near 6,650—so stay disciplined on allocations, concentration, and risk.
Breadth is improving: the gap between market-cap and equal-weight has narrowed, and equal-weight has led over the past six months. Energy, Utilities, Industrials, and Materials have been driving gains, but several are getting extended—take profits and rebalance where needed.
Also watch Technology: it’s oversold, and even a modest rebound could quickly shift leadership back toward mega-cap performance.
Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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