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3-12-26 The “Value Rotation” Illusion

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Release Date: 03/12/2026

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Markets have surged 11% from recent lows after a powerful ten-day rally, pushing above key moving averages and approaching more overbought conditions. Momentum is strong, and buy signals are in place, but as markets stretch further from their averages, upside may become more challenging in the near term. A major difference in this cycle is the absence of a “death cross.” The 50-day moving average never broke below the 200-day, and markets quickly reclaimed key technical levels. Historically, that type of setup points to stronger underlying support and lowers the probability of a full...

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4-14-26 Buy Signal Is Back - But Don't Chase | Before the Bell show art 4-14-26 Buy Signal Is Back - But Don't Chase | Before the Bell

The Real Investment Show Podcast

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The Real Investment Show Podcast

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The Real Investment Show Podcast

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4-10-26  What To Do After You Inherit Money show art 4-10-26 What To Do After You Inherit Money

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More Episodes

The market narrative says investors are rotating out of expensive growth stocks and into cheaper value stocks. But is that actually happening?

Jon Penn and Michael Lebowitz explain how today’s passive investing landscape can distort traditional definitions of value and growth. ETF flows and index-driven allocations often send capital into the largest and most popular companies, regardless of valuation.

Using our three-tier valuation framework—past earnings, forward earnings, and growth-adjusted valuations—we show how investors can better separate stocks that simply look cheap from those that may represent genuine value.

We also discuss why traditional screens like low P/E ratios can lead investors into value traps, and how market narratives, psychology, and passive flows can create large valuation gaps across sectors and companies.

Understanding the difference between perceived value and true value is critical in today’s market environment.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA

Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer

0:00 - INTRO
0:20 - Before the Bell - Markets Making Lower Highs and Lower Lows
2:56 - Dealing with Trapped Longs
5:32 - Negative Divergences Send Warnings
7:35 - Our Strategies Now
11:26 - The Price of Oil & U.S. Dollar
13:52 - Impact of Dollar on Gold, Silver, Precious Metals
17:41 - The Momentum Chase
18:25 - $200 Crude & Futures Markets
22:15 - Crude Oil & Gasoline Futures curves
25:24 - CPI vs Core CPI & The Fed
30:32 - Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, & Fed Stance
33:22 - The Value Rotation Illusion
35:51 - What is Value?
38:55 - How Airlines Really Make Money
41:40 - Market Commentary & Blog posting
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Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel:
https://youtube.com/live/jW9UWP7WdZY
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Watch our previous show, "Q&A Day: Technical Breakdown in the S&P 500: What Comes Next?" here:
https://youtube.com/live/B2diF0UUrjs
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Articles Mentioned in Today's Show:
"Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/technical-deterioration-an-analysis-of-the-markets-next-move/
"True Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/true-value-looking-through-the-value-rotation-illusion/
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Reclaim 100-DMA," is here: 
https://youtu.be/MntZ-KayzxA
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Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/
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#ValueInvesting #StockMarket #PassiveInvesting #MarketAnalysis #InvestorEducation