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Boris Vladimirov on Inflation Permanence, European Banks and BRICS Outlook

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Release Date: 04/16/2021

Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China’s Swing Power show art Ep. 376: Rory Johnston on $100 Oil, the Refined Product Crisis, and China’s Swing Power

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:  $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea...

info_outline Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis show art Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

info_outline Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes show art Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote...

info_outline Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability show art Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of...

info_outline Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China’s Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality show art Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China’s Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank’s Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko’s main area of work is income inequality. He is...

info_outline Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI’s Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction show art Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI’s Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits

info_outline Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing show art Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of...

info_outline Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis show art Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn’t have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at...

info_outline Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation show art Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was...

info_outline Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market show art Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German....

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This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.

Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss:

  1. Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence.
  2. Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending?
  3. The best Europe trade.
  4. Which yields matter for EM.
  5. How important is China’s deleveraging goals?
  6. Where next for Chinese currency and bonds?
  7. Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy.
  8. Machine learning vs regressions.
  9. Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky).
  10. Current market views on bonds and equities.