Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
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Ep. 212: Nick Baltas on Mastering Systematic Strategies from Alpha to AI
04/19/2024
Ep. 212: Nick Baltas on Mastering Systematic Strategies from Alpha to AI
Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS. Previously, he was a lecturer in finance at Imperial College Business School, a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, as well as a risk manager in a London-based hedge fund. This podcast covers: difference between alpha, beta, smart beta and factors, difference between a good backtest vs true risk premia, why momentum makes money, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 211: John Coates on How a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything
04/12/2024
Ep. 211: John Coates on How a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything
John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions. He has testified before Congress and provided consulting services to the Department of Justice, the Department of Treasury, and the New York Stock Exchange. He is author of the ‘The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything’. This podcast covers: the rise of the public company, how companies balance the interests of society, the 1970s disruption to corporate order, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 210: Mark Koyama on What Makes Some Nations Richer Than Others
04/05/2024
Ep. 210: Mark Koyama on What Makes Some Nations Richer Than Others
This podcast is sponsored by (/). Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relationship between culture and economic performance. He is the author of several books, most recently ‘How the World Became Rich’ with Jared Rubin. This podcast covers: how to measure prosperity today and in the past, whether geography makes some nations richer than others, landlocked countries, Islamic empire, Mongol invasion, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 209: Darrell Duffie on Treasury Market Dysfunction, Dollar Dominance and CBDC
03/28/2024
Ep. 209: Darrell Duffie on Treasury Market Dysfunction, Dollar Dominance and CBDC
Darrell Duffie is a leading expert on bond markets. He is the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He has been on the finance faculty at Stanford since receiving his Ph.D. from Stanford in 1984. He is author of several books, including ‘Fragmenting Markets: Post-Crisis Bank Regulations and Financial Market Liquidity’. He presented at the 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium. This podcast covers: key events that impacted Treasury market functioning from GFC to COVID, the growth of Treasury market vs stagnant bank balance sheets, bank leverage ratios and central clearing, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 208: David Dredge on Inflation, Underpriced Risks and Sharpe Ratio Flaws
03/22/2024
Ep. 208: David Dredge on Inflation, Underpriced Risks and Sharpe Ratio Flaws
David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsible for the fixed income aspects of their volatility strategy. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust, and Bank of America. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). This podcast covers: the problem with the BoJ’s timid hike, fiscal dominance and the need for bond buyers, how central banks have shifted goalposts on inflation, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 207: Dave DeWalt on Cyber Warfare, Attacks on US Election, and AI
03/15/2024
Ep. 207: Dave DeWalt on Cyber Warfare, Attacks on US Election, and AI
Dave DeWalt is Founder, CEO, and Managing Director of NightDragon, an investment and advisory firm focused on growth and late-stage cybersecurity, safety, security, and privacy companies. Before NightDragon, Dave helped create more than $20 billion in shareholder value during his 15-plus years as President and CEO of Documentum, McAfee, and FireEye. That includes driving the most successful cybersecurity IPO ever in 2013 and leading the largest all-cash deal in technology history in 2010. Dave has also served on the US National Security Telecommunications Advisory Council for the past four US administrations to advise on national security related to telecommunications systems. This podcast covers: working with National Security Council and Homeland Security, the recent history of cyber attacks on the US, cognitive warfare and disinformation, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 206: Nigel Toon on How AI Thinks and How We Can Control It
03/08/2024
Ep. 206: Nigel Toon on How AI Thinks and How We Can Control It
This podcast is sponsored by (). Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister’s Business Council. He has been ranked #1 on Business Insider’s UK Tech 100 and named as one of the ‘Top 100 entrepreneurs in the UK’ by the Financial Times. He is the author of the best-selling book ‘’. This podcast covers: comparing chips: CPU vs GPU vs IPU, data vs information, big data and neural networks, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 205: Gary Gerstle on Unprecedented Trump, Unrecognised Biden, and Unusual Times
03/01/2024
Ep. 205: Gary Gerstle on Unprecedented Trump, Unrecognised Biden, and Unusual Times
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: what Biden has achieved during his administration, shifting power from markets to the state, why Biden is unpopular, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession
02/23/2024
Ep. 204: Claudia Sahm on Inflation Risks, Fed Cuts, and Recession
Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. This podcast covers: whether US fiscal policy worked and whether it caused inflation, the main causes of inflation, why there is no wage-cost inflation, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 203: Melanie Mitchell on Can Artificial Intelligence Beat Human Thinking
02/16/2024
Ep. 203: Melanie Mitchell on Can Artificial Intelligence Beat Human Thinking
Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Her current research focuses on conceptual abstraction and analogy-making in artificial intelligence systems. Melanie is the author or editor of six books and numerous scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and complex systems. Her most recent book is entitled ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans’. This episode’s podcast covers: evolution of AI from cybernetics to neural networks and deep learning, how big (labelled) data helped AI, what intelligence is, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 202: Alberto Gallo on Trump, Fiscal Risks, and Market Outlook
02/09/2024
Ep. 202: Alberto Gallo on Trump, Fiscal Risks, and Market Outlook
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss: the market being too focused on rate cuts, the importance of the new fiscal regime, inflation risks, and much more. Charts mentioned can be found Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 201: Henry Ritchotte on Managing Banks, Start-Ups, and the New Investment Era
02/02/2024
Ep. 201: Henry Ritchotte on Managing Banks, Start-Ups, and the New Investment Era
Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models. Before that, Henry served as Chief Digital Officer of Deutsche Bank, creating the blueprint for a digital challenger bank within Deutsche Bank. Previously, Henry was Chief Operating Officer and a member of the Management Board and Group Executive Committee at Deutsche Bank. This episode's podcast covers: dealing with the 2008 financial crisis, running a bank through the eyes of a COO, why European banks haven’t toppled US banks, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 200: Julia Azari on Trump’s Dictatorial Powers, Biden’s Unpopularity, and US Elections
01/26/2024
Ep. 200: Julia Azari on Trump’s Dictatorial Powers, Biden’s Unpopularity, and US Elections
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers: what led to Presidential powers in foreign and domestic policy, the impact of the George W Bush years, how does the constitution constrain presidential power, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 199: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Fed Slashing Rates and Trump Winning
01/19/2024
Ep. 199: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Fed Slashing Rates and Trump Winning
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers what has made Dominique switch from being hawkish to dovish on the Fed, low and high inflation regimes, the importance of energy prices and foreign workers, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 198: Chris Rauh on How to Use AI to Predict Conflicts
01/12/2024
Ep. 198: Chris Rauh on How to Use AI to Predict Conflicts
Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. He co-founded conflictforecast.org and has conducted projects for Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the German Foreign Office, and the IMF. He’s also listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years. This episode's podcast covers: the hard problem of predicting conflicts, defining conflicts: wars, civil wars, terrorism, whether the theory of conflict match reality, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 197: John Floyd on the Biggest Trades and Risks for 2024
01/05/2024
Ep. 197: John Floyd on the Biggest Trades and Risks for 2024
John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager. Prior to that, John was Chairman and CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund. Before that, John was a Senior Macro Proprietary Trader at Deutsche Bank and Senior Portfolio Manager at the highly successful $3bn Swiss Bank Currency Fund. John’s successful track record in both macro and currency only investing spans over 25 years. John has also collaborated with psychiatrist, trading coach, and best-selling author, Ari Kiev, which led to participation in writing his book, The Psychology of Risk: Mastering Market Uncertainty. This week's podcast covers: finding asymmetric returns, how to deal with losses, meta lessons from 2023, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 196: Rerelease: Niall Ferguson on Cold War 2, Middle East Conflict and Woke Students
12/29/2023
Ep. 196: Rerelease: Niall Ferguson on Cold War 2, Middle East Conflict and Woke Students
This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 195: Bilal Hafeez on 2023 Surprises, Getting AI Right, and Best TV of 2023
12/22/2023
Ep. 195: Bilal Hafeez on 2023 Surprises, Getting AI Right, and Best TV of 2023
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: the biggest surprises of 2023, why covering oil and China is important, understanding the drivers of US growth, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Ep. 194: Liang Ding on Can China Avoid a Hard Landing
12/15/2023
Ep. 194: Liang Ding on Can China Avoid a Hard Landing
Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst. He has worked for DWS, Sal Oppenheim, and Union Invest. This week's podcast covers: sentiment on the streets of Shanghai, how the China economy performed over 2023, more supply than demand, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Shiloh Bates on Demystifying CLO Myths
12/08/2023
Shiloh Bates on Demystifying CLO Myths
Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager. Prior to joining Flat Rock Global, Shiloh was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners, and Head of Structured Products at BDCA Advisor. During his 20-year career, Shiloh has worked for several CLO managers and invested over $1.5 billion in CLO securities. He is the author of the recently published ‘’. This week's podcast covers everything to do with CLOs, from definitions throught to their evolution and performance in today's landscape. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Yesha Yadav on Crypto Bankruptcies, Stablecoin, and Treasury Market issues
12/01/2023
Yesha Yadav on Crypto Bankruptcies, Stablecoin, and Treasury Market issues
Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers key bankruptcies in crypto from Celsius to FTX, crypto regulation and enforcement risks, and the impact of AI in financial markets. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Greg Lippmann on The Big Short, Latest US Housing View, and Finding Alpha in Structured Products
11/24/2023
Greg Lippmann on The Big Short, Latest US Housing View, and Finding Alpha in Structured Products
Greg Lippmann is the Managing Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of the $9.8bn asset management firm, LibreMax. Prior to founding LibreMax, Greg was head of all non-agency RMBS, ABS, and CDO trading globally at Deutsche Bank. His prescient call on the subprime crisis was immortalized in the book and film The Big Short. In the film, Greg is played by Ryan Gosling. In this podcast we discuss: what led Greg to believe there would be a subprime crisis, thinking about convex trades, launching LibreMax, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Charlie McElligott on Year-End Rally, Duration Buying, and Carnivore Diets
11/17/2023
Charlie McElligott on Year-End Rally, Duration Buying, and Carnivore Diets
Charlie McElligott is the leading expert on all things positioning, flow, sentiment, and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: what was behind this year’s rates sell-off, how to think about financial conditions tightening, real money demand for duration, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Dr Douglas Greenig on Trend-Following, the End of Pax-Americana, and Why He ls Long Volatility
11/17/2023
Dr Douglas Greenig on Trend-Following, the End of Pax-Americana, and Why He ls Long Volatility
Dr Douglas Greenig is the CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, a systematic, trend-following asset manager uniquely broad in its focus on over 500 markets. Doug has over 25 years of experience in portfolio management and trading. Prior to founding Florin Court, Doug started in markets on Goldman Sachs’ bond arbitrage proprietary desk through the late ‘90s after being hired as an Assistant by Fischer Black. Following this, Doug headed Agency Mortgage Trading at RBS Greenwich Capital, worked as a quantitative portfolio manager at Fortress Investment Group, and then as Chief Risk Officer at London quant firm AHL. In this podcast we discuss: how trend-following works, the importance of volatility scaling to trend-followers, the importance of diversification in gaining an edge, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Marc Goldwein on the Unprecedented US Budget Problem and How to Fix It
11/10/2023
Marc Goldwein on the Unprecedented US Budget Problem and How to Fix It
Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. He works regularly with Members of Congress and their staffs on budget-related issues. In this podcast we discuss: the scale of US debt and deficit, how COVID impacted spending, trends in healthcare, social security spending, and taxes, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Macro Hive Webinar: (The Weekly Call Recorded 1 November 2023)
11/03/2023
Macro Hive Webinar: (The Weekly Call Recorded 1 November 2023)
This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets. This week, US macro expert Dominique Dwor-Frecaut reveals her outlook on the Fed (pre-FOMC), EM strategist Mirza Baig presents his new Emerging Markets Vulnerability and Scenario Analysis report, which reveals the countries most vulnerable to declining global liquidity and higher rates hurdles. We also hear from Henry Occleston on the Bank of England, and Ben Ford explains what he expects from Norges Bank and RBA. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Boris Vladimirov on Macro Volatility, US Yields, and Recession Risks
10/27/2023
Boris Vladimirov on Macro Volatility, US Yields, and Recession Risks
Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast we discuss: the impact of fiscal policy on growth, how rates sensitivity of private sector has changed, recession odds, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Daniel Rock on How AI Will Reshape Economies
10/20/2023
Daniel Rock on How AI Will Reshape Economies
This episode is sponsored by Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. In this podcast we discuss: the lasting impact on work practises after the COVID lockdowns, why productivity been weak in recent decades, understanding digital goods and intangible assets, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Martin Lueck On the Scientific Investing, Trend Models and Macro Divergences
10/06/2023
Martin Lueck On the Scientific Investing, Trend Models and Macro Divergences
Marty co-founded Aspect Capital, which manages over $8bn in a range of systematic investment solutions. He is the Research Director and oversees the Research Team responsible for generating and analysing fundamental research hypotheses for development of all Aspect’s investment programmes. He currently serves on the Board of the National Futures Association and as Chair of the Oxford Physics Development Board. Prior to founding Aspect, Marty was with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded in 1987 with Michael Adam and David Harding. He holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University. In the podcast, we talk about importance of testing hypotheses, ChatGPT and LLMs, why trend works as a style and impact on portfolios. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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Jason Halliwell on Value Investing, Systematic Macro and Carry
09/29/2023
Jason Halliwell on Value Investing, Systematic Macro and Carry
This episode is sponsored by Jason Halliwell is the head of GMO’s Systematic Global Macro team and a partner of the firm. GMO is a leading value-oriented asset manager with $60bn under management. Jason joined GMO in September 1999 from Westpac Investment Management where he spent three years in research and development of quantitative tactical asset allocation methods. In the podcast, we talk about equity views, why systematic works in macro, how to think about value investing, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights:
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