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Phil Suttle on Coming High Inflation, Goods Recessions and Fed in Play

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Release Date: 05/07/2021

Azeem Azhar On the Exponential Age, Unlimited Companies and Tech Challenges show art Azeem Azhar On the Exponential Age, Unlimited Companies and Tech Challenges

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Azeem is the creator of Exponential View, a leading platform for in-depth tech analysis. His weekly newsletter is read by 200,000 people from around the world, and his podcast has featured guests including Yuval Noah Harari, Tony Blair and Kate Raworth. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The four technologies driving exponential age. 2. How tech companies defy conventional understanding. 3. Climate change and productivity. 4. Understanding US/China/Europe tech rivalry

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Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. In this podcast, we discuss: 1. What is reverse goldilocks? 2. The challenge of the current regime. 3. What gives central banks credibility? 4. Views on China

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Marc is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. In this podcast we discuss: 1. How to predict financial crises. 2. Can banks rebrand themselves as fintech? 3. What are the key fintech trends. 4. Is the crypto challenge to finance real? 5. What is the state of sell-side research?

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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.

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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Richard is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Fabric Ventures – a VC fund adapting the early, technical, and patient approach of venture capital to investing in Web 3.0 and decentralised data networks. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Starting companies versus investing. 2. What makes start-ups and their founders successful. 3. What returns should one expect in VC. 4. What is the Open Economy and Web 3.0. 5. Centralisation vs decentralisation

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David Dredge On Defining Risk, Profiting from Extreme Moves, and Convexity show art David Dredge On Defining Risk, Profiting from Extreme Moves, and Convexity

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

David has over 30 years’ experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In this podcast we discuss: 1. The confusion between measuring risk and managing risk. 2. What is convexity. 4. The role of central banks in shifting equity-bond correlations.

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Todd Edgar On Managing Money, China and Advice from Paul Tudor Jones show art Todd Edgar On Managing Money, China and Advice from Paul Tudor Jones

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Todd Edgar has over 28 years’ experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. In this podcast we discuss: 1 Challenges of running a hedge fund. 2 How have markets changed since the global financial crisis (2008). 3 Are commodities in a new supercycle? 4 How to think about inflation. 5 Views on crypto markets.

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David Woo On Persistence Of COVID, Stagflation, and Political Taboos show art David Woo On Persistence Of COVID, Stagflation, and Political Taboos

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David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The impact of globalization on inequality. 2. Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination. 3. Return to stagflation. 4. The fundamental shifts in US-China relations. 5. China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do.

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Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled ‘Ethereum, The Triple Halving’, and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss: 1. Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum. 2. The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin. 3. Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000. 4. Future of NFT and the metaverse.

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In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. 1. Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry. 2. Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded. 3. Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows. 4. Types of alternative data.

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More Episodes

Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about:

  1. COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s.
  2. Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets.
  3. High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023.
  4. Fed will be in play sooner than expected.
  5. Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints.
  6. Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling.
  7. EM local markets appear mispriced.
  8. Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices.
  9. UK in secular decline.
  10. Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).