Nancy Davis on How to Position for True Inflation Risk
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Release Date: 11/26/2021
Ep. 375: Bilal on How to Use AI to Turbocharge Your Market Analysis
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG
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Ep. 374: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on the K-Shaped US Economy, AI Supply Shocks, and Fed Hikes
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote...
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Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of...
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Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China’s Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank’s Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko’s main area of work is income inequality. He is...
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Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI’s Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Post-Cyclical" Economy The Reduction of Economic Friction Margins vs. Labour Share The Path to 10% Unemployment The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem Golden Age of Equity Investing The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits
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Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of...
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Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn’t have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at...
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Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was...
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Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German....
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Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan’s Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge
Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys, including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation Japan’s Real Neutral Interest Rate The Case for Nominal GDP...
info_outlineNancy Davis is the founder and managing partner of Quadratic Capital Management. She is the portfolio manager for The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). She founded Quadratic Capital in 2013. She began her career at Goldman Sachs where she spent nearly ten years, the last seven with the proprietary trading group where she rose to become the Head of Credit, Derivatives and OTC Trading. Prior to starting Quadratic, she served as a portfolio manager at Highbridge Capital Management where she managed $500 million of capital in a derivatives only portfolio. She later served in a senior executive role at AllianceBernstein. In this podcast we discuss:
- Why ETFs are attractive wrappers for active strategies
- How best to capture true inflation risk
- The pros and cons of investing in TIPs
- How to think about spread exposure
- Taking advantage of the shape of forward curve to fund option premium
- How the IVOL strategy performed during COVID
- Are real yields too low?
- Risks for 2022 including stagflation