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Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Release Date: 03/27/2026

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Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss: The Five Pillars of Global Macro The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing Australia’s "Lucky Country" Crisis From Supply Shock to Demand Shock The Significance...

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Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist, Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated into business strategy.  Fordham was Wall Street’s original Chief Global Political Analyst, spending 17 years at Citigroup. She created Eurasia Group’s financial markets...

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Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry.  Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm’s Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm’s overall...

info_outline Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris show art Ep. 351: Tyler Goodspeed on Recession Myths, the Reality of Economic Shocks, and Policy Hubris

Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University, He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith...

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Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world’s largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.  He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding...

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Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University,

He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.  

All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with. 

In this podcast, we discuss:

  1. The "Boom-Bust" Myth 
  2. Recessions as "Apophonies"
  3. Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age
  4. Policy Hubris
  5. The 1785 Structural Break
  6. Supply Shocks as Choke Points
  7. Misnaming the 2001 Recession
  8. The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection
  9. Impairment of Creative Destruction
  10. Fidelity to Long-Run Trends