J.P. Morgan's Kelly: A recession's coming, but it won't last long
Release Date: 05/09/2025
Veteran strategist says market needs a breakout to prove this is no bear-market rally
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Technical analyst Willie Delwiche, the founder of , says that "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," and he says investors need to see a return to record-high levels for proof that the current rebound is more than just a bear-market rally. He expects the market to be held hostage by headlines and range-bound — bouncing between the market's February peak and the April post-tariff-announcement lows — until there is some clarity on tariffs, interest rates and more. He expects large-cap growth stocks to keep leading the way domestically, and says that the international...
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Sanjac Alpha's Wells says investors need to reduce their expectations
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Andy Wells, chief investment officer at , says that investors might want to put a collar on their enthusiasm, whether that involves a hunger for interest rate cuts or double-digit stock market returns. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he says that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to make rate cuts, notes that he thinks international stocks have profited from turmoil but are less promising for the future, and says that the domestic market — helped by a strong economy — should be able to hold marginal, single-digit gains for this year and have small gains moving forward for the next few...
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Bear-fund manager expects a 'wide, sloppy range-bound market' for years
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Veteran market-timer Brad Lamensdorf, manager of the and of a new market-neutral hedge fund, says that the market's outsized gain of the last few years has set it up for a long period of sideways and heavy volatility while high valuations settle into something more reasonable. He's not calling for a recession — and he thinks there will be plenty of opportunities for savvy stock-picking — but he says the market will be much less comfortable for investors than it has been over the last few years. Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at — which assesses market and economic strength to...
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Regions' McKnight: Domestic markets will outperform the rest of the year
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at , says that there is opportunity for investors to "eek out a mid-single-digit type of return this year," provided that they can stomach high levels of volatility along the way. Specifically, McKnight says that he expects domestic stock markets to be the leader in the second half of the year, most notably in comparison to international developed markets, which have been a bright spot thus far in 2025. McKnight expects the performance of foreign stocks to fade, while mid-cap domestic stocks pick up sharply. McKnight also expects the Federal Reserve to...
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Economist says new tariff uncertainty builds confidence that recession is avoidable
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at , says that for all of the concerns that tariffs have created for the economy, the situation playing out in the courts now has put a cap on how much can be done that reduces the chance of recession. Jacobsen says that the bond market is signalling potential concerns now while the stock market is suggesting that "everything is fine," and he notes that both messages can be correct amid uncertainty around inflation, government debt levels and more. Jacobsen also discusses the sentiment numbers, which suggest that consumers are miserable, but he says that...
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Veteran strategist says market will set new records soon, and hold them for years
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at , says the target he was setting for the stock market entering 2025 holds, and that means 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 "is doable this year, and I think we will rally nicely into the mid-term elections." Thorne believes the economy can avoid a recession, which will slowly help to turn the soft data as consumers and investors regain confidence, which — coupled with interest rate cuts which he says are overdue — will keep the United States markets not only moving up but the best place to invest in the world. John Cole Scott,...
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Leader Capital's Lekas: 'I'm just not buying into the gloom and doom'
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
John Lekas, president and senior portfolio manager at Leader , says that focusing on the numbers rather than the headlines shows a market that has the potential to gain 5 to 10 percent before year's end, with solid gains in the bond market as well, particularly in collateralized mortgage obligations. Lekas says he's not worried about inflation remaining sticky because stocks often perform well during inflationary times; he thinks the dollar will get 10 percent weaker over the course of the year — and notes that the dollar is his primary worry — but he notes that the dollar's change is not...
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Economist Kotlikoff: Recession is coming, cut back hard on the equities
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
, professor of economics at Boston University and the founder of — which helps investors bring economics into their financial planning decisions — says investors who have spent decades thinking the stock market rebounds from every dip and decline could be in for a different story with a coming recession, and he thinks they should be trying to lock in their standard of living rather than focusing on historic rates of return. To that end, he says he has cut his personal equity exposure from 60 percent of the portfolio to 20-25 percent. "I do see only downside risk from what's going on,"...
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Tocqueville's Petrides: Amid murky market situation, buy a little of everything
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
John Petrides, portfolio manager at , says that today's heightened volatility should have investors spreading their bets, "because the world is so unsettled right now that it's hard to have conviction to lean into one position, one asset class or one investment all on one side of the boat at one time." He says the market has ridden out a storm but isn't settled, and investors will want to extend their international investments to get good values, but will want to capitalize on premiums currently available in bonds, will want to diversify geopolitical risk with gold and will want to be...
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Natixis' Janasiewicz: It's a range-bound market, and we're near the top
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Jack Janasiewicz, senior vice president and portfolio strategist at , says the market is in the middle of "one big range trade, and we're probably a lot closer to being at the top of the range rather than the bottom," which means there is more likely room to move down from here rather than to post big gains. Janasiewicz says the the slowing economy needs more time to work through the hard data, which will take time, and will likely lead to a volatile market within the current range. Janasiewicz says the market must also deal with short-term concerns over the weakening dollar, but says he think...
info_outlineDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says that using tariffs "is like throwing a grenade as an offensive weapon when you are in a small room. You are much more likely to damage yourself than anybody else," which is why he is expecting the Trump Administration to back away from its heavy demands rather than go into a trade war. Despite being "one Tweet away from a solution," Kelly worries that the economy will suffer damage — particularly if it's not cleared up soon — but he notes that he does believe a recession is in the offing, with the good news being that he thinks that slowdown will be shallow and short-lived, passing by the end of the year. Peter Chung, director of research at Presto Research, a firm that trades digital assets, checks in on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and discusses their strong rebound since taking a nosedive along with the stock market heading into "Liberation Day" and through the subsequent downturn; he discusses how digital assets are being impacted by tariff concerns. Plus Andrew Kohl, portfolio manager for Aberdeen Investments' Total Dynamic Dividend and Global Dynamic Dividend funds, says investors can find strong payouts and good valuations buying foreign dividend-paying stocks, noting that many companies can keep rolling regardless of trade policy outcomes in the coming months. He also names two of his favorite dividend plays for the current market.