Seafarer's Foster: We're still in 'the bottom of the first' on tariff impacts
Release Date: 11/20/2025
Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at , says the stock market is facing a trifecta of bear-market risks that could lead to "one of the great bear markets of our lifetime," with losses surpassing 40 percent and lasting for as long as 18 months when it finally bursts. Despite that, he says there are ways to "invest through it," and that's precisely what he is doing, because despite bubble conditions, there are pockets of value and there could still be a lot of market upside until the inevitable pop of this balloon. But the talk starts today with an interview recorded at Wednesday's Fall...
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Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the dollar may lead to...
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David Russell, global head of market strategy at , says that as artificial intelligence become less of an economic focus, the market will wake up to potential weakness on Main Street, where "recessionary patterns" are already visible. He is expecting "one of the weaker holiday seasons in a while," and says that a lot of signs that have been viewed as bullish have become much more questionable. He would not be surprised to see the market test October lows — roughly 6,550 on the Standard & Poor's 500 — before year's end. Nate Miles, head of retirement at , discusses the...
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Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for and , says that the U.S. consumer higher-income households "are in great shape heading into 2026," and so long as the Boomers continue spending, the economy and stock market can roll along. Quinlan says that the economy can avoid a recession if the Federal Reserve can avoid policy mistakes, if the U.S. stays out of a difficult trade war and if the extraneous factors mostly stay at bay. Given what the market has weathered in 2025, Quinlan says there is reason to believe the rally can continue, even if results are muted a bit compared to the equity...
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Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist for the Americas at , says the market's recent action represents "a fairly healthy pullback," the kind of periodic "cleansing" that markets go through, and that the recent action is less based on whether earnings can continue to drive valuations higher than it is on nervousness over the Federal Reserve's next move. Chaudhuri says that the current focus on whether the Fed will cut rates again in December is misplaced, because continued earnings growth, gross domestic product numbers and the fundamentals of the stock...
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Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at , says the market isn't looking like it will make dramatic moves before the end of the year, but he does expect a "small correction." Because he believes that the underpinnings for the economy are solid and forces like the artificial intelligence boom are backstopping the market, he expects that correction to be a buying opportunity for investors. Tani Fukui, senior director for global economic and market strategy for , says she expects the Federal Reserve to follow through with rate cuts — even as the market seemed to waver in...
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Robert Farrington, founder of , , and while that sounds horrible, it actually represents an improvement of six percentage points over the results Farrington got making the same queries a year ago. Farrington notes that the outcomes are only as good as the inputs, meaning that consumers who don't know the right questions to ask will be more poorly served by artificial intelligence than those who know enough to ask solid questions. Catherine Collinson, president of the , discusses "" which showed that U.S. adults earning between $50,000 and $199,999 annually are struggling to stay afloat and get...
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Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at , says that the stock market has ridden earnings growth to the record highs it has set this year, but she is worried that with valuations at high levels, earnings growth can't sustain higher price-earnings multiple to push the market up further. Guild notes that Robinhood's customers have changed some of their investment habits as market conditions have evolved in the post-Covid market; they're still buying dips, but more on a single-name basis rather than buying broad markets and riding indexes. Further, Guild says she will be watching investor...
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Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at , says the stock market is entering "the most bullish season of the year," and the bears missed the chance for a big pullback once the market got past mid-October. Now he expects the market to grind higher for the rest of the year, but he notes that things may change once the holiday buzz changes and 2026 moves forward. Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at , says that rate cuts will make cash less attractive, which will push a lot of money that has been on the sidelines up the risk spectrum, and he discusses the areas of the bond market that he...
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Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at — which runs several commodity specific ETFs, like the Teucrium Soybean fund — says that while tariffs are being blamed for high prices for goods like coffee, cocoa, beef and more, it's actually the weather and long droughts in certain key growing areas that have steadily increased prices over several years. Still, Gilberties says tariffs have had an undeniable impact, some of it negative — with trading partners losing trust in the United States — some of it positive, because commodities are still moving around world markets. He says that...
info_outlineAndrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the dollar may lead to greater volatility and risk ahead.
Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, heads to the utilities sector and a long-time established fund for his ETF of the Week.
The second half of today's show is interviews from Wednesday's Fall Round Table for the Active Investment Company Alliance, which Chuck attended and spoke at in New York City. The conversation starts with Ryan Paylor, portfolio manager at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, which recently converted a closed-end fund from a focus on companies located in the Caribbean Basin — it was ticker Symbol CUBA — to one focused on collateralized loan obligations. Paylor explains the thinking behind the move and how shareholders reacted to such a drastic makeover.
Then, long-time activist investor Phil Goldstein of Bulldog Investors discusses the state of shareholder activism and why there seems to be so much less of it than there was just a few years back. Some of the change is good news for consumers — better fund management — while other reasons make it harder for activist moves to succeed.